The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on May 15. A weak solar wind shock was observed at 18:14 UT, probably the arrival of the May 13 CME. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at 18 pfu at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 216.0 - decreasing 10.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 160.24. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 160.01 on November 14, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.6). Three hour interval K indices: 12332233 (planetary), 12323332 (Boulder), 12434354 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 418) and in 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 269) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13667 [N27W69] was quiet and stable.
Region 13671 [N19W45] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13672 [N19W19] was quiet and stable.
Region 13673 [S09E02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13674 [S13E12] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13675 [S15W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13676 [S20W32] developed slowly and could produce C and maybe
a minor M class flare.
Region 13678 [N09E25] was quiet and stable.
Region 13679 [S09E32] developed slowly and could produce M flares.
Region 13680 [N17E35] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13682 [N12E46] was mostly quiet and
stable.
New region 13683 [S23W05] was first observed with tiny spots on May
11. New flux emerged on May 14 and SWPC numbered the region the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9689 [S12W07] was quiet and stable.
S9692 [N23W47] decayed slowly and quietly.
S9708 [N16W02] was quiet and stable.
New region S9713 [S06E69] emerged with a spots.
New region S9714 [S14E82] rotated partly into view and produced an
X2.9 flare at 14:38 UT. Further major flares are possible.
New region S9715 [N18E49] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S9716 [N25E18] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.6 | 00:19 | S9714 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 01:33 | 13679 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 01:55 | 13671 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 02:42 | S9714 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 04:13 | 13679 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 04:25 | S10E44 | 13679 | GOES16 | |
| C7.8 | 04:55 | 13671 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 06:18 | S9713 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 06:25 | S9713 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 07:20 | 13679 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13670 by SWPC, simultaneous flare in AR S9676 | |
| C9.9 | 07:48 | 13671 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.9 | 08:16 | behind southwest limb | S9676 | GOES16 | |
| X3.4 | 08:47 | behind southwest limb | S9676 | GOES16 | weak type IV radio sweep |
| M3.5 | 10:35 | behind southwest limb | S9676 | GOES16 | |
| M2.9 | 11:09 | S9714 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.9 | 14:06 | S9714 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.2 | 14:17 | S9714 | GOES16 | ||
| X2.9 | 14:38 | S9714 | GOES16 | weak type II and IV radio sweeps | |
| C8.5 | 18:25 | S9714 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 20:15 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 20:39 | behind southwest limb | S9676 | GOES16 |
May 15: No obviously Earth directed CME observed.
May 14: A partial halo CME was observed after the X8.7 flare in AR
S9676. Due to a flare in AR 13682 and a subsequent CME near the east limb a
little later, it was impossible to determine if the first CME was a full
halo CME. Any effects from the CME could reach Earth on May 17.
May 13: A full halo CME was observed after the M6.6 long duration
event peaking at 09:44 UT in AR S9676. This CME could reach Earth on May 15
and cause unsettled to major geomagnetic storming.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on May 16-18.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13667 | 2024.05.03 2024.05.04 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N27W74 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: N27W69 |
| 13670 | 2024.05.05 2024.05.06 |
7 | N20W51 | 0010 | DAO |
 |
location: N14W51 spotless SWPC has moved AR 13670 to the position of AR 13671 and AR 13671 to the position of AR S9692. What a mess! |
||||
| 13671 | 2024.05.06 2024.05.09 |
7 | 12 | 8 | N23W52 | 0030 | CRO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N19W45 SWPC location on May 10 was N19E17, then they changed that to the location of AR S9692 area: 0090 |
| S9684 | 2024.05.07 | S24W54 | |||||||||
| 13672 | 2024.05.08 2024.05.09 |
1 | 13 | 6 | N19W23 | 0040 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N19W19 area: 0080 |
| S9689 | 2024.05.08 | 10 | S12W07 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13675 | 2024.05.09 2024.05.11 |
2 | 1 | 1 | S14W86 | 0020 | DRO | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S15W80 area: 0003 |
| 13673 | 2024.05.09 2024.05.11 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S09W01 | 0020 | HRX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: S09E02 |
| S9692 | 2024.05.09 | 12 | 6 | N23W47 | 0030 | CRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S9694 | 2024.05.09 | S04W39 | |||||||||
| 13676 | 2024.05.10 2024.05.12 |
4 | 19 | 11 | S22W34 | 0090 | CSO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S20W32 area: 0170 |
| 13674 | 2024.05.10 | 10 | 47 | 27 | S13E11 | 0140 | CSO | CAI |
 |
 |
area: 0180 location: S13E12 |
| 13683 | 2024.05.11 2024.05.15 |
5 | 25 | 11 | S23W08 | 0030 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: S23W05 |
| 13678 | 2024.05.11 2024.05.12 |
4 | 2 | N09E22 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N09E25 | ||
| 13681 | 2024.05.11 2024.05.13 |
S07W50 |
 |
||||||||
| 13677 | 2024.05.11 2024.05.12 |
S02W82 | location: S02W77 | ||||||||
| S9704 | 2024.05.11 | N10W40 | |||||||||
| S9705 | 2024.05.11 | S24W12 | |||||||||
| 13679 | 2024.05.12 | 7 | 22 | 16 | S09E32 | 0240 | DSO | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0410 |
| 13680 | 2024.05.12 2024.05.13 |
2 | 11 | N17E36 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: N17E35 |
|
| 13682 | 2024.05.12 2024.05.14 |
6 | 18 | 10 | N13E44 | 0080 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N12E46 |
| S9708 | 2024.05.12 | 7 | 1 | N16W02 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9710 | 2024.05.13 | N05W38 | |||||||||
| S9711 | 2024.05.14 | N27W17 |
 |
||||||||
| S9713 | 2024.05.15 | 5 | 2 | S06E09 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S9714 | 2024.05.15 | 5 | 4 | S14E82 | 0540 | EKO |
 |
||||
| S9715 | 2024.05.15 | 7 | 2 | N18E49 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9716 | 2024.05.15 | 8 | N25E18 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 53 | 228 | 109 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 173 | 418 | 269 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 100 | 292 | 173 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 190 | 230 | 215 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (125.2 projected, +0.4) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.9 projected, -3.3) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (118.5 projected, -3.4) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (117.7 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (117.1 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (117.1 projected, -0.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 194.8 (1) | 74.1 (2A) / 153.1 (2B) / 209.6 (2C) | (118.3 projected, +1.2) | (40.0) | |
| 2024.06 | (117.4 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (115.7 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.8 projected, -1.9) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (112.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (111.1 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (108.6 projected, -2.5) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
The big increase in sunspot counts during the April 14-27 interval caused a major uptick in the smoothed SNs and solar flux. It's not yet clear when the next peak will be, anytime between October 28 and December 20, 2023 looks possible. The 365d smoothed solar flux exceeded the June 27 peak on October 28, while the 365d smoothed ISN and NOAA SN both exceeded the June 2023 peak in late October 2023. It should be noted that the current peak using 13-month smoothing is still in June 2023.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
