The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on May 8. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day, however, a weak increase in the flux level has been observed early on May 9.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 227.1 - increasing 82.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 158.82. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.82 on November 8, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.1). Three hour interval K indices: 12222211 (planetary), 11122313 (Boulder), 22223220 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C9 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 401) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 248) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13663 [N25W71] decayed slowly and lost
the last remaining magnetic delta configuration. Flare activity decreased
substantially, however, there is still a chance of M class flares while the
region rotates over the northwest limb.
Region 13664 [S18W30] decayed slightly. however, there is still a
magnetic delta in the trialing spot section and further M and X flares are
possible.
Region 13665 [S06W00] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 13666 [N07W52] was quiet and stable.
Region 13667 [N26E20] was quiet and stable.
Region 13668 [S17W12] developed slowly gaining spots and area. A
minor M class flare is possible, also due to interaction with AR S9676.
Region 13670 [N16E42] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9660 [N09W37] was quiet and stable.
S9676 [S20W21] developed further and is a huge, very complex spot
group with X10+ flare potential. The region has many magnetic delta
structures and has caused the background xray flux to stay above the M1.0
level most of the time since late on May 7.
S9680 [N20E46] was quiet and stable.
New region S9685 [S24W44] emerged with tiny spots before noon, then
decayed slowly.
New region S9686 [N19E71] emerged with several tiny and small spots
near the northeast limb.
New region S9687 [S07E15] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9689 [S08E82] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C8.4 | 00:42 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.4 | 00:51 | S20W09 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 |
| C6.0 | 01:16 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.0/1B | 01:41 | N26W58 | 13663 | GOES16 | |
| M1.1 | 02:06 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| M3.4 | 02:27 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 02:56 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| M1.9 | 03:27 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.9 | 03:42 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.5 | 04:30 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.0/3B | 05:09 | S22W10 (SDO/AIA) | S9676 | GOES16 | full halo CME strong type II and moderate type IV radio sweeps SWPC location is way off at S18W17 |
| M4.9 | 05:48 | behind southeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| M7.1 | 06:53 | 13664 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9676 | |
| M4.5/1F | 07:41 | N28W59 | 13663 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9676 |
| M3.5 | 08:39 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.9 | 08:48 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6 | 09:20 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.8 | 09:37 | S9676 | GOES16 | weak type IV radio sweep | |
| M2.1 | 09:48 | N26W66 | 13663 | GOES16 | |
| M2.2 | 10:01 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 10:33 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 10:58 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.1/1N | 11:22 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M8.6 | 12:04 | S9676 | GOES16 | full halo CME | |
| M3.9 | 12:32 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.0 | 12:48 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.9 | 12:56 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 14:10 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare behind the southeast limb | |
| M1.0 | 14:43 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 15:17 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 15:29 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 15:59 | S20W15 | S9676 | GOES16 | |
| C6.6 | 16:22 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 16:44 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 17:03 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M7.9/2N | 17:53 | S18W18 | S9676 | GOES16 | interaction with AR 13668 |
| M2.9/1F | 18:36 | 13663 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9676 | |
| M2.0 | 19:21 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4 | 19:56 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.7 | 20:34 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| X1.0 | 21:40 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M9.8 | 22:27 | S9676 | GOES16 | full halo CME, strong type IV radio sweep |
May 9: Another Earth directed CME is likely after an X2 flare that is
evolving as this is written.
May 8: A full halo CME was observed after an X1 flare in AR S9676
peaking at 05:09 UT on May 8. The CME could reach Earth after noon on May 10 or early on
May 11. Another full halo CME was observed after an M8.9 flare at 12:04 UT.
Finally a third full halo CME was observed after an X1 flare and an M9.8
flare late in the day. The latter CME is the most significant. Expect minor
to very severe geomagnetic storm conditions from the impact of the first two
CMEs until May 12.
May 6-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1221) was Earth facing on May 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 9-10. Active to very severe geomagnetic storm conditions are possible from late on May 10 until May 13 due to multiple full halo CMEs. Although effects from CH1221 are possible on May 11-12, CME effects are likely to make it impossible to observe this.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13660 | 2024.04.26 2024.04.27 |
N11W89 | location: N10W82 | ||||||||
| 13661 | 2024.04.28 2024.04.29 |
N22W56 |
 |
||||||||
| 13663 | 2024.04.29 2024.04.30 |
10 | 26 | 14 | N26W70 | 0400 | FKC | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0590 location N25W71 |
| 13664 | 2024.04.30 2024.05.01 |
62 | 36 | 18 | S19W24 | 1200 | FKC | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0420 location: S19W15 SWPC includes ARs S9676 in this spot group |
| S9660 | 2024.04.30 | 3 | N09W37 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13665 | 2024.05.01 2024.05.02 |
11 | 4 | S05W15 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S06W00 SWPC location is way off |
||
| 13666 | 2024.05.02 2024.05.03 |
2 | 4 | 4 | N07W52 | 0070 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| 13669 | 2024.05.02 2024.05.05 |
S09E01 |
 |
location: S09E04 |
|||||||
| 13668 | 2024.05.03 2024.05.05 |
5 | 41 | 28 | S15W13 | 0030 | CRO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S17W12 area: 0150 |
| S9670 | 2024.05.03 | N04W11 | |||||||||
| 13667 | 2024.05.03 2024.05.04 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N26E20 | 0150 | HSX | HHX |
 |
 |
area: 0270 |
| S9672 | 2024.05.03 | S33W08 | |||||||||
| S9673 | 2024.05.04 | S11W48 | |||||||||
| S9674 | 2024.05.04 | N01W51| | |||||||||
| S9675 | 2024.05.05 | S10W43 | |||||||||
| S9676 | 2024.05.05 | 108 | 60 | S20W21 | 3030 | EKC |
 |
 |
gamma-delta | ||
| 13670 | 2024.05.05 2024.05.06 |
2 | 5 | 1 | N16E43 | 0040 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: N16E42 |
| S9679 | 2024.05.06 | N15E06 |
 |
||||||||
| S9680 | 2024.05.06 | 10 | 3 | N20E46 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9681 | 2024.05.06 | S31W44 | |||||||||
| S9682 | 2024.05.07 | N15W04 |
 |
||||||||
| S9683 | 2024.05.07 | S26E05 |
 |
||||||||
| S9684 | 2024.05.07 | S24E37 |
 |
||||||||
| S9685 | 2024.05.08 | 3 | 1 | S24W44 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9686 | 2024.05.08 | 10 | 4 | N19E71 | 0040 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S9687 | 2024.05.08 | 1 | S07E15 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9689 | 2024.05.08 | 1 | S08E82 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 82 | 261 | 138 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 142 | 401 | 248 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 122 | 259 | 160 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 156 | 221 | 198 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (125.2 projected, +0.4) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.9 projected, -3.3) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (118.5 projected, -3.4) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (117.7 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (117.1 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (117.1 projected, -0.0) | 9.5 |
| 2024.05 | 172.4 (1) | 34.6 (2A) / 134.0 (2B) / 188.3 (2C) | (118.3 projected, +1.2) | (12.7) | |
| 2024.06 | (117.4 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (115.7 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.8 projected, -1.9) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (112.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (111.1 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (108.6 projected, -2.5) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
The big increase in sunspot counts during the April 14-27 interval caused a major uptick in the smoothed SNs and solar flux. It's not yet clear when the next peak will be, anytime between October 28 and December 20, 2023 looks possible. The 365d smoothed solar flux exceeded the June 27 peak on October 28, while the 365d smoothed ISN and NOAA SN both exceeded the June 2023 peak in late October 2023. It should be noted that the current peak using 13-month smoothing is still in June 2023.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
