The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on May 7. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 203.6 - increasing 72.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 158.67. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on October 28, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.9). Three hour interval K indices: 12112212 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 13223433 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 381) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 242) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13661 [N23W40] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13663 [N25W58] decayed further losing spot and area. There is
still a magnetic delta configuration in the trailing spot section and
further major flares are possible. An X1.0 flare was recorded at 01:41 UT on
May 8.
Region 13664 [S19W15] lost parts of its trailing spots to AR S9676 as
that region continued its extreme development. Further M class flares are
possible due to a magnetic delta configuration in the trailing spot section.
Region 13665 [S06E12] was quiet and stable.
Region 13666 [N07W39] was quiet and stable.
Region 13667 [N26E33] was quiet and stable.
Region 13668 [S16E00] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet. The leader
spots continue to interact with the northeastern spots of AR S9676.
Region 13669 [S09E17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13670 [N17E56] gained a trailing spot
and was quiet.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9660 [N09W22] was quiet and stable.
S9676 [S20W07] developed quickly and merged with what was formerly
the trailing spots of AR 13664. Due to extreme complexity and many magnetic
delta configurations the spot group flares almost continuously. Major flares
are possible. This is currently the largest spot group in area of SC25.
S9679 [N15E19] was quiet and stable.
S9680 [N20E60] was quiet and stable.
New region S9682 [N15E09] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9683 [S26E18] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9684 [S24E50] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.1 | 00:09 | 13664 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 00:30 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.6 | 00:58 | N27W40 | 13663 | GOES16 | |
| M2.2 | 01:14 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6 | 01:34 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 02:25 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 02:34 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 02:57 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.4 | 03:12 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 03:20 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 03:37 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 03:59 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 04:09 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| C4.9 | 04:28 | 13664 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs 13663 and S9676 | |
| C4.5 | 04:34 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| C3.7 | 04:57 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 05:36 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 05:46 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| M5.1 | 06:16 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.2 | 06:42 | 13664 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4 | 07:03 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| M1.5 | 07:17 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 07:33 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 08:23 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4 | 08:31 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.2 | 08:42 | S9676 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| C5.5 | 09:17 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 09:54 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.5/1F | 10:42 | 13663 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9676 | |
| M2.4/2N | 11:50 | S18E03 | S9676 | GOES16 | |
| M1.5 | 12:54 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 13:25 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 13:35 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 13:55 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 14:40 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 15:17 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 15:35 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 15:43 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M8.2 | 16:30 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 17:38 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 17:52 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 18:29 | 13663 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9676 | |
| C8.4 | 18:56 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 19:16 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.8 | 20:09 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.1 | 20:22 | 13664 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 20:47 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 20:52 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 21:06 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 21:11 | 13663 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9676 | |
| M3.3 | 21:26 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.2 | 21:53 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.3 | 21:59 | 13663 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 23:04 | 13663 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13663 | |
| M1.4 | 23:24 | S9676 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6 | 23:31 | S9676 | GOES16 |
May 5: LASCO imagery was unavailable.
May 6-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1221) will become Earth facing on May 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 8-10. Quiet to active conditions are possible on May 11-12 due to effects from CH1221
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13660 | 2024.04.26 2024.04.27 |
N11W75 | location: N10W69 | ||||||||
| 13662 | 2024.04.27 2024.04.29 |
N27W85 |
 |
location: N29W84 |
|||||||
| 13661 | 2024.04.28 2024.04.29 |
1 | 5 | 1 | N22W42 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
|
| 13663 | 2024.04.29 2024.04.30 |
15 | 34 | 21 | N25W57 | 0400 | FKC | FAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0680 location N25W58 |
| 13664 | 2024.04.30 2024.05.01 |
37 | 30 | 19 | S20W09 | 0630 | FKC | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0420 location: S19W15 SWPC includes AR S9676 in this spot group |
| S9660 | 2024.04.30 | 6 | 1 | N09W22 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9661 | 2024.04.30 | S22W54 | |||||||||
| S9662 | 2024.05.01 | N20W59 | |||||||||
| 13665 | 2024.05.01 2024.05.02 |
6 | S05W00 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S06E12 |
|||
| 13666 | 2024.05.02 2024.05.03 |
2 | 9 | 6 | N07W40 | 0080 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 location: N07W39 |
| 13669 | 2024.05.02 2024.05.05 |
1 | 1 | S09E15 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0003 location: S09E17 |
|
| S9668 | 2024.05.02 | N12W50 | |||||||||
| 13668 | 2024.05.03 2024.05.05 |
6 | 31 | 21 | S16E01 | 0030 | CSO | DRI |
 |
see AR 13664 |
beta-gamma area: 0100 location: S16E00 |
| S9670 | 2024.05.03 | N04E02 | |||||||||
| 13667 | 2024.05.03 2024.05.04 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N26E32 | 0150 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0240 location: N26E33 |
| S9672 | 2024.05.03 | S33E05 | |||||||||
| S9673 | 2024.05.04 | S11W35 | |||||||||
| S9674 | 2024.05.04 | N01W38 | |||||||||
| S9675 | 2024.05.05 | S10W30 | |||||||||
| S9676 | 2024.05.05 | 81 | 46 | S20W07 | 2060 | EKC |
 |
see AR 13664 | beta-gamma-delta | ||
| 13670 | 2024.05.05 2024.05.06 |
1 | 2 | 2 | N16E55 | 0040 | HSX | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N17E56 |
| S9679 | 2024.05.06 | 2 | N15E19 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S9680 | 2024.05.06 | 8 | 2 | N20E60 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9681 | 2024.05.06 | S31W31 |
 |
||||||||
| S9682 | 2024.05.07 | 1 | 1 | N15E09 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9683 | 2024.05.07 | 2 | S26E18 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S9684 | 2024.05.07 | 1 | 1 | S24E50 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 64 | 221 | 122 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 144 | 381 | 242 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 104 | 259 | 160 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 158 | 210 | 194 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (125.2 projected, +0.4) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.9 projected, -3.3) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (118.5 projected, -3.4) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (117.7 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (117.1 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (117.1 projected, -0.0) | 9.5 |
| 2024.05 | 164.6 (1) | 30.0 (2A) / 132.9 (2B) / 184.6 (2C) | (118.3 projected, +1.2) | (13.8) | |
| 2024.06 | (117.4 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (115.7 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.8 projected, -1.9) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (112.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (111.1 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (108.6 projected, -2.5) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
The big increase in sunspot counts during the April 14-27 interval caused a major uptick in the smoothed SNs and solar flux. It's not yet clear when the next peak will be, anytime between October 28 and December 20, 2023 looks possible. The 365d smoothed solar flux exceeded the June 27 peak on October 28, while the 365d smoothed ISN and NOAA SN both exceeded the June 2023 peak in late October 2023. It should be noted that the current peak using 13-month smoothing is still in June 2023.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
