The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 371 and 417 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 130.5 - decreasing 53.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 156.35. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 20121200 (planetary), 21122321 (Boulder), 40112300 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 188) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 127) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13599 [S13W70] still has a significant
magnetic delta structure in the leading spot section. A major flare is
possible while the region is rotating over the southwest limb. C1 flares:
C1.0 @ 02:41, C1.5 @ 02:51, C1.5 @ 03:53, C1.1 @ 04:53, C1.1 @ 07:25, C1.1 @
12:45, C1.0 @ 13:31, C1.1 @ 14:33, C1.6 @ 15:17, C1.6 @ 19:05 UT
Region 13600 [S18W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13602 [N15W79] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13604 [N09W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13605 [S16W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13606 [N08E28] emerged on March 10 and was numbered by
SWPC 2 days later.
New region 13607 [S18E46] emerged on March 11 with SWPC numbering the
region the next day. Further C class flaring is likely. C1 flares: C1.3 @
19:46, C1.2 @ 20:59, C1.0 @ 22:08 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9484 [S18E12] was quiet and stable.
S9489 [N10E54] was quiet and stable.
S9492 [N06E63] was quiet and stable.
New region S9495 [N32W12] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9496 [S17E82] rotated into view
with a small spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 04:08 | 13599 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 04:19 | 13599 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 09:48 | 13599 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 10:18 | southeast limb | S9496 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13599 by SWPC |
| C3.9 | 11:35 | S11W59 | 13599 | GOES16 | |
| C3.3 | 11:48 | 13599 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 18:15 | 13599 | GOES16 | LDE |
March 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1204) rotated across the central meridian on March 10. A small negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1205) will likely become Earth facing on March 13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 13-15 with a a chance of unsettled intervals on March 13-14 due to effects from CH1204. On March 16 we could see weak effects from CH1205.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13599 | 2024.02.29 2024.03.01 |
7 | 13 | 10 | S12W67 | 0230 | DAO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0300 location: S13W70 |
| 13600 | 2024.03.01 2024.03.02 |
2 | 1 | 1 | S17W57 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S18W57 |
| 13602 | 2024.03.03 2024.03.04 |
1 | N17W79 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N15W79 |
|||
| 13603 | 2024.03.03 2024.03.04 |
N13W58 | location: N13W51 | ||||||||
| 13604 | 2024.03.04 2024.03.05 |
7 | 1 | N08W27 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N09W15 |
||
| S9478 | 2024.03.05 | S08W30 | |||||||||
| S9480 | 2024.03.06 | N07W56 | |||||||||
| 13605 | 2024.03.07 2024.03.07 |
1 | 5 | 3 | S14W46 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S16W42 |
| S9484 | 2024.03.07 | 5 | S18E12 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S9485 | 2024.03.08 | S33W23 | |||||||||
| S9487 | 2024.03.10 | N22W49 | |||||||||
| 13606 | 2024.03.10 2024.03.12 |
5 | 16 | 9 | N08E27 | 0040 | DAO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N08E28 |
| S9489 | 2024.03.10 | 1 | 1 | N10E54 | 0008 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S9490 | 2024.03.11 | S14W50 |
 |
||||||||
| S9491 | 2024.03.11 | N06E25 |
 |
||||||||
| S9492 | 2024.03.11 | 2 | 1 | N06E63 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13607 | 2024.03.11 2024.03.12 |
3 | 14 | 10 | S18E44 | 0030 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 location: S18E46 |
| S9494 | 2024.03.11 | N26E17 |
 |
||||||||
| S9495 | 2024.03.12 | 2 | N32W12 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9496 | 2024.03.12 | 1 | 1 | S17E82 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 18 | 68 | 37 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 68 | 188 | 127 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 33 | 95 | 64 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 75 | 103 | 102 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.1 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.2 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.3 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | (124.2 projected, +0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (125.0 projected, +0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (125.0 projected, -0.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.7 projected, -3.3) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (118.3 projected, -3.4) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.6 | (117.5 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 137.7 (1) | 36.5 (2A) / 94.2 (2B) / 119.7 (2C) | (116.9 projected, -0.6) | (9.0) | |
| 2024.04 | (116.9 projected, -0.0) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (118.1 projected, +1.2) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (117.3 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (115.6 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (113.7 projected, -1.9) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (112.0 projected, -1.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity saw a significant decrease during the latter half of February and the first part of March. While there is still a chance that there could be another and higher peak in October or November 2023, chances that June 2023 was solar max has increased. After November 2023 there is currently no other obvious candidate solar max month. Taking into account the state of the solar polar fields another major peak during SC25 is becoming less likely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
