Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 5, 2024 at 06:35 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 2, 2024)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 2, 2024) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 2, 2024) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 2, 2024) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 2, 2024) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (March 3, 2024) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing
Calculating the Strength of Solar Cycle 25 Using 365-day Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 4 due to weak CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 324 and 426 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 139.9 - decreasing 39.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 157.13. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.9). Three hour interval K indices: 42211112 (planetary), 33322211 (Boulder), 52212125 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 234) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 165) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13591 [S36W52] was quiet and stable.
Region 13592 [S12W61] was quiet and stable.
Region 13595 [N20W65] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 12:11 UT
Region 13596 [N18W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13598 [S12W76] decayed further and was quiet.  C1 flares: C1.1 @ 02:38 UT
Region 13599 [S13E38] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 13600 [S18E48] was quiet and stable.
Region 13601 [N12W22] decayed early in the day, then developed new spots after noon. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 15:14 UT
New region 13602 [N18E28] emerged on March 3 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The spot group simplified and lost its magnetic delta structure. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:51, C1.3 @ 02:28, C1.1 @ 03:06, C1.1 @ 03:11, C1.5 @ 08:30, C1.2 @ 11:33 UT
New region 13603 [N13E53] emerged on March 3 with SWPC numbering the region the following day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9469 [S21E07] was quiet and stable.
New region S9475 [N12W33] emerged with tiny spots. This may actually be two groups, however, they are too close to each other to consider a split.
New region S9476 [N08E84] rotated into view with a single spot.

C2+ flares

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.3 02:53   13602 GOES16 incorrectly attributed to AR 13599 by SWPC
C2.4 03:16   13602 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 2-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1203) will rotate into an Earth facing position on March 5.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 5-7. A weak disturbance associated with CH1203 could begin on March 8.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13591 2024.02.22
2024.02.23
1 2 2 S36W53 0030 HSX CAO

area: 0070

klocation: S36W52

13592 2024.02.22
2024.02.23
1 5 3 S14W60 0010 AXX BXO location: S12W61
13594 2024.02.22
2024.02.23
      N05W72         location: N06W67
13595 2024.02.23
2024.02.24
2 7 3 N20W62 0180 ESO EHO

area: 0440

location: N20W65

S9453 2024.02.24       S15W41          
S9454 2024.02.24       N08W52            
13596 2024.02.25
2024.02.26
1 7 2 N20W31 0010 AXX CRO

area: 0015

13597 2024.02.28
2024.02.28
      N08W55            
S9462 2024.02.28       N13W17            
13598 2024.02.28
2024.02.29
5 10 4 S13W72 0100 DSI EAO location: S12W76
13599 2024.02.29
2024.03.01
3 22 6 S14E38 0030 CRO CAI area: 0080

location: S13E38

13600 2024.03.01
2024.03.02
1 2 1 S18E46 0080 HSX CSO area: 0140

location: S18E48

S9469 2024.03.01   10 3 S21E07 0020   BXO  
13601 2024.03.02
2024.03.03
  7 4 N13W21 0020   CRO

location: N12W22

13602 2024.03.03
2024.03.04
8 20 12 N19E29 0030 DAO DAO area: 0110

location: N18E28

13603 2024.03.03
2024.03.04
1 5 3 N14E53 0010 AXX CAO location: N13E53

area: 0060

S9474 2024.03.03       S21W14          
S9475 2024.03.04   6 2 N12W33 0012   BXO    
S9476 2024.03.04   1   N08E84 0080   HAX    
Total spot count: 23 104 45  
Sunspot number: 113 234 165  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 53 155 96  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 124 129 132  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (SC24 solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(SC24 peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2022.08 114.2 117.1 74.6 92.6 (+5.9) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.0 96.5 (+3.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.5 98.9 (+2.4) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 80.5 101.2 (+2.3) 9.33
2022.12 147.9 143.4 112.8 106.7 (+5.5) 10.99
2023.01 182.4 176.6 144.4 113.3 (+6.6) 8.73
2023.02 167.2 163.2 111.3 117.8 (+3.5) 14.48
(current
SC25 peak)
2023.03 157.2 155.6 123.3 121.1 (+3.3) 14.42
2023.04 145.4 146.4 97.6 122.9 (+1.8) 13.40
2023.05 155.6 159.2 137.4 124.1 (+1.2) 10.67
2023.06 161.7 166.8 160.5 125.2 (+1.1)
(SC25 solar max candidate)
8.95
2023.07  176.4 182.2 160.0 124.3 (-0.9) 8.15
2023.08  153.7 157.6 114.8 124.0 (-0.3) 7.19
2023.09  154.4 156.0 134.2 (124.2 projected, +0.2) 14.26
2023.10  142.8 141.9 99.4 (125.0 projected, +0.8) 8.16
2023.11 153.5 150.2 105.4 (125.0 projected, -0.0) 12.20
2023.12 151.1 146.4 114.2 (121.7 projected, -3.3) 9.60
2024.01 164.6 159.3 123.0 (118.3 projected, -3.4) 5.46
2024.02 172.5 168.3 124.6 (117.5 projected, -0.8) 5.4
2024.03 150.2 (1)   13.4 (2A) / 103.5 (2B) / 137.8 (2C) (116.9 projected, -0.6) (12.0)
2024.04       (116.9 projected, -0.0)  
2024.05       (118.1 projected, +1.2)  
2024.06       (117.3 projected, -0.8)  
2024.07       (115.6 projected, -1.7)  
2024.08       (113.7 projected, -1.9)  
2024.09       (112.0 projected, -1.7)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory Of Belgium, Brussels

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of February 11, 2024

The relatively high solar activity during the first weeks of 2024 has changed the outlook regarding solar max. The first peak in June 2023 currently has a less than 10% probability of being the actual solar max. The next candidate month is October 2023 (October 8-11 if zooming in on a specific date). The likelihood of October 2023 surpassing June 2023 is at least 50%. It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.