The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on June 23, weakly under the influence of a low speed stream from CH1228. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 195.8 - increasing 25.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 162.68. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 162.68 on December 24, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11333222 (planetary), 22332422 (Boulder), 11234434 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 290) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 170) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13712 [S26W84] rotated mostly out of
view. A major flare is possible while the region is rotating out of view. A
very long duration M class event is in progress as this report is being
prepared.
Region 13713 [S14W76] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. A major
flare is possible.
Region 13716 [N08W80] rotated partly out of view and was
significantly less active than during the previous days.
Region 13719 [S15E12] gained tiny spots and has polarity intermixing.
A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 13720 [S06E26] developed in the trailing spots section and saw
significantly decreased flare activity.
Region 13721 [N26E51] was quiet and stable.
Region 13722 [S12E49] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 13723 [S19E71] rotated into view on June 22 and was
numbered by SWPC the following day. The region has magnetic delta
configuration in the intermediate spot section and could produce further
major flares.
New region 13725 [N24E40] rotated into view on June 20 and saw some
development early on June 23. Slow decay was observed after noon and only
tiny spots are currently present.
New region 13726 [S04E66] rotated into view on June 22 with SWPC
numbering the region the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9815 [N15E22] was quiet and stable.
New region S9824 [N25W08] emerged with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New region S9825 [S27E83] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S9826 [N08W08] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.1 | 00:49 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 01:19 | N21E55 | 13721 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 01:52 | 13721 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13716 | |
| C3.9 | 02:04 | 13721 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.3 | 02:15 | 13723 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13722 by SWPC | |
| C4.9 | 02:50 | 13719 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 03:02 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 03:17 | 13716 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 04:49 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 05:23 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 05:57 | 13713 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13716 | |
| C5.4 | 06:14 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.4/1N | 06:30 | 13716 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.3 | 07:23 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 07:35 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 09:16 | 13719 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.6 | 11:29 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 11:37 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 11:46 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| M9.3/1N | 13:01 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.3 | 13:17 | 13713 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 14:13 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 14:49 | 13713 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 15:42 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 16:39 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 16:52 | 13716 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 17:32 | 13722 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13713 | |
| C4.1 | 18:15 | 13716 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 18:42 | 13723 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 18:47 | 13713 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 20:12 | 13713 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 21:25 | 13716 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 21:36 | 13712 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 22:27 | 13713 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13716 | |
| C4.9 | 23:17 | 13720 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 23:45 | 13723 | GOES16 |
June 21-23: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing locations.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on June 24-26.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13712 | 2024.06.11 2024.06.12 |
4 | 2 | 1 | S25W90 | 0220 | EAO | HKX |
 |
 |
area: 0750 location: S26W84 |
| 13713 | 2024.06.11 2024.06.12 |
11 | 12 | 7 | S14W78 | 0440 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S14W76 area: 0700 |
| 13716 | 2024.06.12 | 6 | 4 | 3 | N10W85 | 0230 | EAO | EAO |
 |
 |
area: 0260 location: N08W80 |
| S9802 | 2024.06.15 | S32W52 | |||||||||
| S9805 | 2024.06.16 | S11W24 | |||||||||
| S9806 | 2024.06.17 | S10W59 |
 |
||||||||
| 13718 | 2024.06.18 2024.06.19 |
N12W41 |
 |
location: N17W36 | |||||||
| S9812 | 2024.06.18 | N27W42 | |||||||||
| 13719 | 2024.06.19 2024.06.19 |
14 | 30 | 18 | S15E11 | 0230 | DAO | EHI |
 |
 |
area: 0410 location: S15E12 |
| 13720 | 2024.06.19 2024.06.19 |
13 | 43 | 22 | S05E23 | 0140 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0220 location: S06E26 |
| S9815 | 2024.06.19 | 4 | N15E22 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S9816 | 2024.06.20 | S17W30 | |||||||||
| 13725 | 2024.06.20 2024.06.23 |
4 | 15 | 4 | N18E41 | 0090 | DAI | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N24E40 not sure what SWPC/USAF observed, their data does not make sense |
| 13721 | 2024.06.21 2024.06.21 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N26E50 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 location: S25E51 |
| 13722 | 2024.06.21 2024.06.21 |
1 | 5 | 2 | S14E50 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0280 location: S12E49 |
| S9820 | 2024.06.21 | N04W20 | |||||||||
| S9821 | 2024.06.21 | S08W58 | |||||||||
| 13723 | 2024.06.22 2024.06.23 |
5 | 20 | 9 | S18E67 | 0150 | DAO | FAC |
 |
 |
area: 0400 location: S19E71 |
| 13726 | 2024.06.22 2024.06.23 |
6 | 7 | 3 | S02E57 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S04E66 area: 0015 SWPC location is way off |
| 13724 | 2024.06.23 | 1 | S11E48 | 0060 | HSX | SWPC decided to split this off from AR 13722. This doesn't make much sense as the latitudinal separation between the southermost location of one of the two penumbrae and the northernmost location of the other penumbra is only 0.93 degrees. | |||||
| S9824 | 2024.06.23 | 2 | S26W08 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9825 | 2024.06.23 | 1 | S27E83 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9826 | 2024.06.23 | 1 | N08W08 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 66 | 150 | 70 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 176 | 290 | 170 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 126 | 208 | 128 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 194 | 160 | 136 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.4 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.1 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.9 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.9) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (128.7 projected, +0.9) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (127.0 projected, -1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.7 | (126.2 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (125.6 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (125.6 projected, -0.0) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 (SC25 peak) | (126.7 projected, +1.1) | 23.56 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.0 (1) | 119.4 (2A) / 155.7 (2B) / 156.3 (2C) | (125.9 projected, -0.8) | (8.3) | |
| 2024.07 | (124.2 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (122.2 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (121.0 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (119.6 projected, -1.4) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (114.5 projected, -5.1) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (109.1 projected, -5.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
May 2024 easily became the month with the highest sunspot counts during solar cycle 25, and early June has seen no change in that pattern of many spot groups, some of which are large and complex. The next candidate for solar max is still uncertain, however, May 20-21, 2024 has all of the smoothed 365d sunspot numbers as well as the 365d smoothed solar flux signalling a peak on those days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
