The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on August 11 under the influence of CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day. Another CME arrived late on August 11 and is causing severe geomagnetic storming early on August 12.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 281.5 - increasing 47.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 168.27. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 168.27 on February 11, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 29 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 29.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22345445 (planetary), 33445434 (Boulder), 12344435 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 442) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 305) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13774 [S06W78] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet.
AR 13777 [S10W58] developed in the trailing spot section as a
magnetic delta configuration formed. M flares are likely.
AR 13780 [S08W22] lost spots and area and is slowly decaying. There
are still multiple magnetic delta configurations in the largest penumbra. A major flare is possible.
AR 13781 [N15W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13782 [N03E12] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13783 [N10W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13784 [N15E35] developed as the southernmost spots once again
joined the largest penumbra. M flares are likely.
New AR 13785 [S11E48] rotated into view on August 9 and was numbered
by SPWC 2 days later.
New AR 13786 [S22W00] was first observed with spots on August 7, SWPC
numbered the spot group 4 days later as new flux emerged.
New AR 13787 [N18W01] emerged on August 9 and received its NOAA
number 2 days later as slow development continued.
New AR 13788 [S07E62] rotated into view on August 10 and developed
slowly on August 11 when the spot group was numbered by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9999 [N28W31] reemerged with tiny spots.
S10011 [S06E24] was quiet and stable.
S10013 [N26E65] was quiet and stable.
New region S10014 [S30E10] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10015 [N18E15] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.2 | 00:15 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 00:31 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.2 | 01:06 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 01:11 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 02:10 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 02:55 | S12W11 | 13780 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13774 |
| C4.4 | 03:21 | 13788 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 03:44 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 04:05 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.1 | 04:17 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 05:17 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 05:28 | S14W16 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C4.4 | 06:15 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 06:41 | 13786 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 06:59 | S08W52 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 07:18 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 07:39 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 08:03 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 08:41 | S13W10 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C4.7 | 08:53 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 09:41 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 11:09 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 11:28 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 11:57 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 12:30 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 13:06 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 13:21 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 14:57 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 16:00 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 16:34 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 16:52 | S09W54 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C4.9 | 17:10 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 17:59 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 18:31 | S03W75 | 13774 | GOES16 | |
| M1.6/1F | 20:16 | S09W58 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C3.4 | 22:14 | 13782 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 22:35 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 23:54 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 23:58 | 13777 | GOES16 |
August 9: A partial halo CME was observed an M4.5 flare in AR 13777
at 21:23 UT.
August 10: A halo CME was observed after the M5 flare in AR 13780 at
02:37 UT. The CME likely reached Earth late on August 11.
August 11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm storm levels on August 12 due to CME effects and quiet to minor storm on August 13. Quiet conditions are possible on August 14.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13775 | 2024.07.30 2024.07.31 |
N18W86 |
|
location: N17W71 |
|||||||
| 13774 | 2024.07.30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | S06W76 | 0140 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0160 location: S06W78 |
| 13777 | 2024.08.01 2024.08.02 |
15 | 22 | 16 | S10W60 | 0300 | EKC | FAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0540 location: S10W58 |
| S9986 | 2024.08.03 | S28W49 | |||||||||
| 13780 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
20 | 94 | 50 | S11W20 | 1100 | FKI | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S08W22 |
| 13779 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
S13W77 | |||||||||
| S9992 | 2024.08.03 | N18W32 | |||||||||
| 13781 | 2024.08.04 2024.08.05 |
4 | 9 | 2 | N14W13 | 0150 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N15W15 area: 0160 |
| S9995 | 2024.08.05 | N07W57 | |||||||||
| 13782 | 2024.08.06 2024.08.07 |
10 | 24 | 14 | N02E16 | 0100 | CAO | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N03E12 |
| S9999 | 2024.08.06 | 2 | 1 | N28W31 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13783 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.08 |
3 | 11 | 5 | N10W23 | 0020 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N10W25 |
| 13784 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.09 |
5 | 26 | 19 | N15E35 | 0460 | DKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0820 |
| 13786 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.11 |
4 | 27 | 19 | S23E01 | 0035 | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S22W00 | |
| S10006 | 2024.08.08 | S09E18 | |||||||||
| 13785 | 2024.08.09 2024.08.11 |
5 | 14 | 6 | S11E49 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S11E48 |
| 13787 | 2024.08.09 2024.08.11 |
3 | 13 | 8 | N16W00 | 0030 | CAO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N18W01 area: 0090 |
| S10009 | 2024.08.09 | S19W46 | |||||||||
| S10010 | 2024.08.09 | S19W58 | |||||||||
| S10011 | 2024.08.10 | 2 | S06E24 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13788 | 2024.08.10 2024.08.11 |
7 | 13 | 8 | S06E64 | 0140 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S07E62 area: 0050 |
| S10013 | 2024.08.10 | 5 | 2 | N26E65 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10014 | 2024.08.11 | 6 | 2 | S30E10 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10015 | 2024.08.11 | 2 | 1 | N18E15 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 84 | 282 | 155 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 194 | 442 | 305 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 152 | 337 | 210 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 213 | 243 | 244 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (137.4 projected, +6.3) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (144.1 projected, +6.7) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (148.2 projected, +4.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (152.9 projected, +4.7) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (156.9 projected, +4.0) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 (cycle peak) |
203.0 | 196.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.7 projected, +1.8) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 269.6 (1) | 80.2 (2A) / 243.6 (2B) / 245.5 (2C) | (159.1 projected, +0.4) | (13.7) | |
| 2024.09 | (161.0 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (162.8 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (160.8 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (156.4 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (150.3 projected, -6.1) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (143.0 projected, -7.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in July 2024 were the highest we've seen for a single month during solar cycle 25. The first part of August has seen very high sunspot counts, and there more than a remote possibility that we'll see activity in August approaching the most active months of solar cycle 23. With at least 4 consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to above 160. The month of the peak is currently likely to occur sometime between July and November 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
