The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on August 10. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 12:08 UT, very likely the arrival of the August 7 CME. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northwards resulting in only a very weak disturbance.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 291.1 - increasing 52.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 167.89. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 167.89 on February 9, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 12112312 (planetary), 22113422 (Boulder), 31213331 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 516) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 293) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13774 [S06W64] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet.
AR 13775 [N17W71] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13777 [S09W47] decayed slowly and produced a few flares.
AR 13780 [S08W07] flared almost continuously throughout the day due
to several magnetic delta configurations around the huge penumbra. Another major flare is possible.
AR 13781 [N15W01] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
AR 13782 [N03E27] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 13783 [N10W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13784 [N15E47] displayed signs of decay as the largest penumbra
split into smaller penumbrae. M class flaring is possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10005 [S22E15] developed slowly and quietly.
S10007 [S11E61] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
S10008 [N19E13] was quiet and stable.
New region S10011 [S08E35] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S10012 [S07E77] emerged with tiny spots near the southeast
limb.
New region S10013 [N26E78] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.9 | 00:32 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 00:45 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 01:02 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 01:43 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 01:51 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.3/2N | 02:37 | S07W02 (SDO/AIA) | 13780 | GOES16 | full halo CME, simultaneous flare in AR 13782 (N01E41), SWPC location: S10E01 |
| M4.0 | 02:46 | N14E60 (SDO/AIA) | 13784 | GOES16 | |
| M2.5 | 02:55 | S13E04 (SDO/AIA) | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| M1.6 | 04:11 | S13W03 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C6.3 | 05:25 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 06:44 | 13780 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13777 | |
| C8.9 | 07:26 | S05E08 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C6.0 | 07:58 | S10007 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 08:23 | S10007 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.2 | 08:57 | 13782 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 09:12 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 09:54 | S12W03 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C5.0 | 10:42 | 13780 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13781 | |
| C5.6 | 11:33 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 11:44 | S10007 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.0 | 11:56 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 12:54 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.4 | 13:18 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 13:44 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 14:38 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 15:16 | N02E34 | 13782 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 |
| C5.1 | 16:42 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.9 | 17:00 | S07W50 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C7.2 | 17:22 | 13782 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 | |
| C8.1 | 18:16 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.9 | 19:53 | S14W09 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C6.7 | 20:39 | S13W10 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C9.7 | 20:47 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 21:12 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.2 | 21:36 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 21:41 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.3 | 21:53 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 22:58 | S10W12 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C6.3 | 23:38 | 13782 | GOES16 |
August 8: A full halo CME was observed after the X1 flare in AR 13777
at 19:35 UT. The CME appears to be heading almost straight at Earth and a
major geomagnetic disturbance could start on August 11.
August 9: A partial halo CME was observed an M4.5 flare in AR 13777
at 21:23 UT. A component of this CME could reach Earth on August 12.
August 10: A halo CME was observed after the M5 flare in AR 13780 at
02:37 UT. The CME could reach Earth on August 12.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on August 11-13 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13772 | 2024.07.29 2024.07.30 |
1 | S24W90 | 0100 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| 13775 | 2024.07.30 2024.07.31 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N18W72 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
|
location: N17W71 |
| 13774 | 2024.07.30 | 24 | 20 | 9 | S76W64 | 0170 | DAI | CSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0200 location: S06W64 |
| 13777 | 2024.08.01 2024.08.02 |
26 | 53 | 24 | S08W47 | 0320 | FKC | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0520 location: S09W47 |
| S9986 | 2024.08.03 | S28W36 | |||||||||
| 13780 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
64 | 167 | 86 | S10W09 | 1200 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S08W07 area: 1510 |
| 13779 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
S13W63 | |||||||||
| S9992 | 2024.08.03 | N18W19 | |||||||||
| 13781 | 2024.08.04 2024.08.05 |
4 | 15 | 8 | N14W01 | 0160 | CSO | DSO |
 |
 |
location: N15W01 area: 0220 |
| S9995 | 2024.08.05 | N07W44 | |||||||||
| S9996 | 2024.08.05 | N39W54 | |||||||||
| 13782 | 2024.08.06 2024.08.07 |
14 | 38 | 22 | N03E28 | 0190 | EAI | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N03E27 |
| S9999 | 2024.08.06 | N15W35 |
 |
||||||||
| 13783 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.08 |
4 | 13 | 6 | N10W10 | 0020 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N10W12 area: 0090 |
| S10002 | 2024.08.07 | N11W55 |
 |
||||||||
| 13784 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.09 |
6 | 21 | 11 | N15E48 | 0460 | CKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N15E47 |
| S10005 | 2024.08.07 | 19 | 6 | S22E15 | 0035 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10006 | 2024.08.08 | S09E31 | |||||||||
| S10007 | 2024.08.09 | 15 | 8 | S11E61 | 0040 | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma | ||
| S10008 | 2024.08.09 | 6 | 3 | N19E13 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10009 | 2024.08.09 | S19W33 |
 |
||||||||
| S10010 | 2024.08.09 | S19W45 |
 |
||||||||
| S10011 | 2024.08.10 | 3 | S08E35 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10012 | 2024.08.10 | 3 | S07E77 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S10013 | 2024.08.10 | 1 | N26E78 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 144 | 376 | 183 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 234 | 516 | 293 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 197 | 425 | 232 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 257 | 284 | 234 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (137.4 projected, +6.3) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (144.1 projected, +6.7) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (148.2 projected, +4.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 171.7 | (152.9 projected, +4.7) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (156.9 projected, +4.0) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 (cycle peak) |
203.0 | 196.5 (SC25 peak) | (158.7 projected, +1.8) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 268.4 (1) | 80.2 (2A) / 248.6 (2B) / 244.9 (2C) | (159.1 projected, +0.4) | (12.2) | |
| 2024.09 | (161.0 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (162.8 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (160.8 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (156.4 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (150.3 projected, -6.1) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (143.0 projected, -7.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in July 2024 were the highest we've seen during solar cycle 25. With three consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to near 150. The month of the peak is currently likely to occur sometime between June and October 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
