The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on August 9. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 305.5 - increasing 95.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 167.50. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 167.50 on February 9, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.9). Three hour interval K indices: 22122112 (planetary), 22112322 (Boulder), 33123224 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 609) and in 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 390) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13772 [S24W77] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13774 [S06W51] decayed slowly and lost the magnetic delta
configuration. Several C and M flares were observed.
AR 13775 [N17W58] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13777 [S09W33] gained spots in the trailing spot section while
slow decay was observed in the leading spot section.
AR 13780 [S09E06] has a few small magnetic delta configurations near
the edge of the huge penumbra. A major flare is possible.
AR 13781 [N15E13] decayed slowly and produced several C flares. The
magnetic delta configuration was still there at the end of the day, however,
it is decaying and will probably disappear today.
AR 13782 [N03E39] developed and gained a small magnetic delta
configuration in the trailing spot section.
AR 13783 [N10E02] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR 13784 [N15E60] rotated into view on August 7 and was numbered
2 days later by SWPC. The spot group is compact and has a magnetic delta
configuration. M class flaring is possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9984 [S14W46] was quiet and stable.
S9999 [N15W22] remerged with tiny spots.
S10005 [S24E25] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S10007 [S11E73] rotated into view with tiny spots. Weak
polarity intermixing is present.
New region S10008 [N19E27] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S10009 [S19W20] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S10010 [S19W32] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.6 | 00:27 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 03:04 | 13777 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 | |
| C4.8 | 03:23 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 03:58 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 04:11 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 04:18 | S10007 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 04:37 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 04:58 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 05:38 | S07W30 (SDO/AIA) | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C8.3 | 05:45 | S10W19 (SDO/AIA) | 13777 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13774 (S05W40). According to SWPC the location was S08W25 |
| C4.4 | 07:10 | GOES16 | |||
| C4.4 | 07:22 | GOES16 | |||
| C4.9 | 07:33 | GOES16 | |||
| C5.7 | 08:29 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 08:54 | southeast limb | S10007 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13784 |
| C6.9 | 09:08 | S10007 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 09:41 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 09:54 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.0 | 10:57 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.2 | 11:07 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 11:17 | 13780 | GOES16 | SWPC attributes this to simultaneous flares in AR 13777 | |
| M1.4/1F | 12:06 | S08E08 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C7.5 | 12:24 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 12:33 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 12:43 | N15E22 | 13781 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 |
| M1.0 | 12:58 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.0 | 13:09 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.7 | 13:18 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 13:32 | 13782 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 14:00 | 13781 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs 13780, 13774 | |
| C7.6 | 14:20 | N15E22 | 13781 | GOES16 | |
| C7.5 | 14:45 | 13780 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13777 by SWPC | |
| C5.9 | 14:53 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 15:12 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 15:43 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 15:48 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7 | 16:31 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 16:51 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 17:16 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 17:30 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.1 | 17:49 | S05W35 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C4.8 | 18:35 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 19:12 | S10007 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 19:37 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 19:55 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 20:18 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0/2N | 20:37 | S05W40 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C8.7 | 20:51 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.4 | 21:07 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.5 | 21:23 | 13777 | GOES16 | CME, moderate type II radio sweep | |
| M2.9 | 22:02 | 13784 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 22:56 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 23:50 | S12E02 | 13780 | GOES16 | weak type IV radio sweep |
August 7: A faint full halo CME was observed after an M4.5 flare
peaking at 13:50 UT in AR 13774. The CME could reach Earth early on August
10.
August 8: A full halo CME was observed after the X1 flare in AR 13777
at 19:35 UT. The CME appears to be heading almost straight at Earth and a
major geomagnetic disturbance could start on August 11.
August 9: A partial halo CME was observed an M4.5 flare in AR 13777
at 21:23 UT. A component of this CME could reach Earth on August 12.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1234) rotated across the central meridian on August 7.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on August 9 with a chance of CME effects late in the day. Unsettled to severe storm conditions are possible on August 10-11 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13772 | 2024.07.29 2024.07.30 |
8 | 3 | 1 | S25W72 | 0230 | HSX | CHO |
 |
 |
location: S24W77 area: 0320 |
| 13775 | 2024.07.30 2024.07.31 |
4 | 9 | 3 | N17W62 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
|
location: N17W58 |
| 13774 | 2024.07.30 | 51 | 55 | 31 | S07W53 | 0260 | EKI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0340 |
| 13776 | 2024.07.31 2024.08.01 |
N09W77 | |||||||||
| 13777 | 2024.08.01 2024.08.02 |
56 | 78 | 43 | S09W33 | 0460 | EKC | FAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0530 |
| S9984 | 2024.08.02 | 2 | 1 | S14W46 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
see AR 13779 which SWPC relocated to this spot group on 2024.08.05 | ||
| S9985 | 2024.08.02 | N22W48 | |||||||||
| S9986 | 2024.08.03 | S28W23 | |||||||||
| 13780 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
128 | 158 | 89 | S12E03 | 1280 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S09E06 area: 1670 |
| 13779 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
S13W49 | see AR S9984 | ||||||||
| S9992 | 2024.08.03 | N18W06 | |||||||||
| 13781 | 2024.08.04 2024.08.05 |
14 | 34 | 14 | N14E12 | 0220 | DSO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N15E13 area: 0250 |
| S9995 | 2024.08.05 | N07W31 | |||||||||
| S9996 | 2024.08.05 | N39W41 | |||||||||
| 13782 | 2024.08.06 2024.08.07 |
11 | 36 | 20 | N03E42 | 0220 | EAI | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N03E39 |
| S9999 | 2024.08.06 | 5 | 2 | N15W22 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13783 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.08 |
15 | 21 | 9 | N09E03 | 0110 | DAI | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N10E02 area: 0090 |
| S10002 | 2024.08.07 | N11W55 |
 |
||||||||
| 13784 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.09 |
5 | 21 | 7 | N15E61 | 0450 | CKO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N15E60 area: 0670 |
| S10004 | 2024.08.07 | N05W49 | |||||||||
| S10005 | 2024.08.07 | 9 | 3 | S24E25 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10006 | 2024.08.08 | S09E44 |
 |
||||||||
| S10007 | 2024.08.09 | 12 | 4 | S11E73 | 0020 | BXI |
 |
beta-gamma | |||
| S10008 | 2024.08.09 | 2 | 1 | N19E27 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S10009 | 2024.08.09 | 1 | 1 | S19W20 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S10010 | 2024.08.09 | 3 | 1 | S19W32 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 292 | 449 | 230 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 382 | 609 | 390 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 357 | 507 | 288 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 420 | 335 | 312 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (134.7 projected, +3.6) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (138.1 projected, +3.4) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (141.7 projected, +3.6) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 | (146.2 projected, +4.5) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (149.9 projected, +3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.9 | 203.0 | 196.5 (SC25 peak) | (151.4 projected, +1.5) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 265.9 (1) | 72.6 (2A) / 250.2 (2B) / 244.2 (2C) | (151.3 projected, -0.1) | (12.8) | |
| 2024.09 | (151.2 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (151.1 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (149.1 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (144.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (138.6 projected, -6.2) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (133.7 projected, -4.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in July 2024 were the highest we've seen during solar cycle 25. With three consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to near 150. The month of the peak is currently likely to occur sometime between June and October 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
