The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on August 8. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 17h UT on 2.8 GHz was 300.1 - increasing 95.1 over the previous solar rotation. The measurement at 20h UT was flare enhanced and therefore replaced by the measured SF at 17h. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 167.08. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 167.08 on February 8, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 32221111 (planetary), 32222322 (Boulder), 41121102 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 512) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 322) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13772 [S24W63] decayed further losing all
penumbra on the trailing spots.
AR 13774 [S07W38] decayed losing spots and area. The spot group has a
small magnetic delta configuration in a northeastern penumbra.
AR 13775 [N17W46] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13777 [S09W21] has polarity intermixing and no magnetic delta
configurations. Another major flare is possible.
AR 13780 [S09E18] produced a few flares and has major flare
potential. Other than some loss of area in the southernmost spot sections, no significant changes were observed during the day.
AR 13781 [N14E27] still has a magnetic delta configuration and is
likely to produce more M flares.
AR 13782 [N02E52] was mostly quiet and stable.
New AR 13783 [N09E17] emerged on August 7 and developed slowly on
August 8 when SWPC numbered the spot group.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9984 [S14W35] was quiet and stable.
S10001 [N24W47] was quiet and stable.
S10002 [N11W42] was quiet and stable.
S10003 [N15E74] was mostly quiet and stable. The spot group has a
large penumbra and apparently a magnetic delta in the southern part of this
penumbra.
New region S10006 [S09E57] emerged with a tiny spot.
An active region (S10007) is rotating into view at at S11E87 early on August 9. This spot group produced several flares during the day including an M1.5 flare.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.3 | 00:21 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.9 | 00:34 | N11E41 | 13781 | GOES16 | |
| M2.1 | 01:05 | S13W03 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C8.0 | 02:45 | S14E28 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C4.5 | 03:13 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 04:41 | S03W15 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| C8.1 | 06:04 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.9 | 06:15 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.1 | 06:35 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.4 | 07:19 | N14E39 | 13781 | GOES16 | |
| C4.5 | 08:12 | behind southeast limb | S10007 | GOES16 | |
| C7.7 | 08:31 | S13E24 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C5.1 | 09:00 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 09:47 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 11:07 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 11:40 | S08W19 | 13777 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0 | 12:13 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 13:00 | N14E35 | 13781 | GOES16 | |
| C9.2 | 13:17 | 13781 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13777 | |
| M1.5 | 13:43 | behind southeast limb | S10007 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13777 |
| C7.4 | 14:11 | S10003 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.3 | 14:23 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 15:05 | S10003 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 15:22 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.1 | 15:24 | 13781 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 15:55 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.4 | 16:36 | behind southeast limb | S10007 | GOES16 | |
| C6.4 | 17:25 | S10E27 | 13780 | GOES16 | |
| C6.5 | 17:43 | southeast limb | 10007 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13780 |
| C6.1 | 18:44 | southeast limb | 10007 | GOES16 | |
| X1.3/2B | 19:35 | S03W23 | 13777 | GOES16 | LDE, full halo CME, moderate type II radio sweep |
| C9.4 | 21:12 | southeast limb | 10007 | GOES16 | |
| M1.2 | 22:51 | 13780 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.2 | 23:06 | 13774 | GOES16 |
August 6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
August 7: A faint full halo CME was observed after an M4.5 flare
peaking at 13:50 UT in AR 13774. The CME could reach Earth early on August
10.
August 8: A full halo CME was observed after the X1 flare in AR 13777
at 19:35 UT. The CME appears to be heading almost straight at Earth and a
severe geomagnetic disturbance could start on August 10-11.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal hole (CH1234) rotated across the central meridian on August 7.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on August 9 with a chance of CME effects late in the day. Unsettled to severe storm conditions are possible on August 10-11 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13772 | 2024.07.29 2024.07.30 |
13 | 14 | 5 | S25W58 | 0310 | CKO | CKO |
 |
 |
location: S24W63 |
| 13775 | 2024.07.30 2024.07.31 |
10 | 11 | 6 | N17W48 | 0070 | CSO | CRO |
 |
|
location: N17W46 area: 0050 |
| 13774 | 2024.07.30 | 47 | 70 | 41 | S07W38 | 0400 | EKC | EHI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0460 |
| 13776 | 2024.07.31 2024.08.01 |
N09W63 |
location: N08W64 |
||||||||
| 13777 | 2024.08.01 2024.08.02 |
45 | 66 | 34 | S09W19 | 0400 | EKC | FAC |
 |
 |
location: S09W21 area: 0550 |
| S9984 | 2024.08.02 | 5 | 2 | S14W35 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
see AR 13779 which SWPC relocated to this spot group on 2024.08.05 | ||
| S9985 | 2024.08.02 | N22W35 | |||||||||
| S9986 | 2024.08.03 | S28W10 | |||||||||
| 13780 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
103 | 141 | 72 | S12E17 | 1250 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S09E18 area: 1510 |
| 13779 | 2024.08.03 2024.08.04 |
S13W35 | see AR S9984 | ||||||||
| S9992 | 2024.08.03 | N18E07 | |||||||||
| 13781 | 2024.08.04 2024.08.05 |
5 | 20 | 14 | N14E26 | 0160 | DSC | DSC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N14E39 area: 0280 |
| S9995 | 2024.08.05 | N07W18 | |||||||||
| S9996 | 2024.08.05 | N39W28 | |||||||||
| 13782 | 2024.08.06 2024.08.07 |
12 | 21 | 10 | N03E57 | 0260 | EKI | EAO |
 |
 |
location: N02E52 |
| S9999 | 2024.08.06 | N16W13 |
 |
||||||||
| 13783 | 2024.08.07 2024.08.08 |
11 | 20 | 13 | N09E17 | 0080 | DAI | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| S10001 | 2024.08.07 | 3 | 1 | N24W47 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10002 | 2024.08.07 | 3 | 1 | N11W42 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S10003 | 2024.08.07 | 7 | 3 | N15E74 | 0460 | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta? | ||
| S10004 | 2024.08.07 | N05W36 |
 |
||||||||
| S10005 | 2024.08.07 | S22E35 |
 |
||||||||
| S10006 | 2024.08.08 | 1 | S09E57 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 246 | 382 | 202 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 326 | 512 | 322 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 311 | 443 | 263 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 359 | 282 | 258 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (134.7 projected, +3.6) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (138.1 projected, +3.4) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (141.7 projected, +3.6) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 | (146.2 projected, +4.5) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (149.9 projected, +3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.9 | 203.0 | 196.5 (SC25 peak) | (151.4 projected, +1.5) | 7.1 |
| 2024.08 | 260.9 (1) | 60.3 (2A) / 233.8 (2B) / 241.2 (2C) | (151.3 projected, -0.1) | (13.7) | |
| 2024.09 | (151.2 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (151.1 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (149.1 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (144.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (138.6 projected, -6.2) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (133.7 projected, -4.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in July 2024 were the highest we've seen during solar cycle 25. With three consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to near 150. The month of the peak is currently likely to occur sometime between June and October 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
