The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on August 3. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 244.6 - increasing 78.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 165.59. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 165.59 on February 3, 2024). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.9). Three hour interval K indices: 22122223 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 34124435 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 21 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 439) and in 18 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 300) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13764 [S02W83] rotated quietly to the limb.
AR 13765 [S10W70] decayed further and still has a magnetic delta
configuration. M class flares are likely.
AR 13766 [S05W81] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13769 [N22W27] was quiet and stable.
AR 13770 [N07W70] decayed slowly and lost the magnetic delta
configuration.
AR 13772 [S24E07] matured further and has a magnetic delta configuration in a
small central penumbra. The number of spots decreased as slow decay was
observed in the trailing and intermediate spot section. Further M class flares are likely.
AR 13774 [S07E28] decayed further and lost the magnetic delta
configurations. M class flares are still possible.
AR 13775 [N18E22] decayed slowly and has a magnetic delta
configuration in the intermediate spot section. A minor M class event is possible.
AR 13776 [N09E09] developed slowly and quietly.
AR 13777 [S08E47] developed and could produce minor M class flares.
AR 13778 [S18W63] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9977 [N04W32] reemerged with a few spots.
S9984 [S13E31] developed and could produce C flares.
New region S9986 [S28E57] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9987 [N04E02] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9988 [N23W47] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9989 [S12E80] rotated into view with a few spots.
New region S9990 [S08E85] rotated into view with large spots. A major
flare is possible.
New region S9991 [N00E39] emerged with tiny spots to the northeast of
AR 13774.
New region S9992 [N18E72] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S9993 [N24W54] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.0 | 00:27 | S10E64 | 13777 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13768 |
| C7.3 | 01:27 | behind southwest limb | 13768 | GOES16 | |
| C9.3 | 01:46 | 13770 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare behind northeast limb | |
| C9.3 | 02:58 | S07E44 | 13774 | GOES16 | |
| C5.3 | 03:50 | behind southwest limb | 13768 | GOES16 | |
| M1.5 | 04:59 | N09W59 | 13770 | GOES16 | |
| C4.6 | 05:25 | 13774 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.9 | 06:04 | behind southwest limb | 13768 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13770 by SWPC |
| C9.0 | 06:49 | 13770 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 07:03 | 13770 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.9 | 07:30 | 13768 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13770 by SWPC | |
| C5.0 | 09:35 | 13765 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 10:32 | S11W66 | 13765 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13770 |
| C3.6 | 12:04 | 13765 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 12:29 | southeast limb | S9990 | GOES16 | |
| C7.0 | 13:36 | southeast limb | S9990 | GOES16 | |
| M1.8/2N | 13:43 | S09E44 | 13774 | GOES16 | |
| C4.5 | 14:54 | 13772 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 15:01 | 13765 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 15:29 | S9989 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13768 | |
| C6.6 | 16:08 | 13766 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 16:21 | 13765 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.8 | 16:54 | 13770 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.9 | 17:26 | 13766 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.8 | 17:42 | 13766 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.9 | 18:18 | behind southwest limb | 13768 | GOES16 | |
| M7.3 | 18:39 | 13775 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.4 | 19:30 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| M2.5 | 19:51 | 13777 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13765 | |
| C6.8 | 20:42 | 13772 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 21:42 | 13772 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 22:43 | 13777 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.7 | 23:02 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S9990 | |
| C4.7 | 23:31 | 13766 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in AR S9990 and behind the northeast limb |
August 1: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after an M8.2
flare in AR 13768 at 07:09 UT. Components of this CME could reach
Earth on August 4.
August 2-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on August 4-5 due to effects from the August 1 CME. Quiet levels are likely on August 6.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13763 | 2024.07.21 2024.07.22 |
1 | N05W91 | 0060 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of veiw | ||||
| 13764 | 2024.07.22 2024.07.22 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S03W90 | 0040 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: S02W83 SWPC position is way off |
| 13765 | 2024.07.23 2024.07.23 |
7 | 18 | 9 | S11W76 | 0140 | DAI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S10W70 area: 0270 merged with AR 13767 |
| 13766 | 2024.07.24 | 7 | 8 | 4 | S07W83 | 0160 | EAI | CSI |
 |
 |
area: 0240 location: S05W84 |
| 13767 | 2024.07.25 | 13 | S09W65 | 0200 | DAI |
merged into AR 13765 |
|||||
| 13769 | 2024.07.25 2024.07.26 |
1 | 7 | 2 | N22W29 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N22W27 area: 0200 |
| 13770 | 2024.07.27 2024.07.28 |
5 | 7 | 4 | N07W75 | 0260 | DHO | DSO |
 |
 |
location: N07W70 area: 0270 |
| S9966 | 2024.07.28 | N30W45 | |||||||||
| 13772 | 2024.07.29 2024.07.30 |
23 | 45 | 24 | S25E06 | 0380 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0800 location: S24E07 |
| S9968 | 2024.07.29 | N34W35 | |||||||||
| S9969 | 2024.07.29 | N08W21 | |||||||||
| S9970 | 2024.07.29 | N11W54 | |||||||||
| S9972 | 2024.07.29 | N24W49 | |||||||||
| S9973 | 2024.07.29 | S12W50 | |||||||||
| 13775 | 2024.07.30 2024.07.31 |
12 | 33 | 17 | N17E18 | 0120 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N18E22 area: 0200 |
| 13774 | 2024.07.30 | 19 | 40 | 23 | S05E27 | 0350 | EKC | EHI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S07E28 area: 0570 |
| S9977 | 2024.07.30 | 2 | 2 | N04W32 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| 13776 | 2024.07.31 2024.08.01 |
1 | 6 | 4 | N10E06 | 0010 | AXX | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N09E09 |
| 13778 | 2024.07.31 2024.08.02 |
1 | S18W61 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S18W63 | |||
| 13777 | 2024.08.01 2024.08.02 |
7 | 21 | 9 | S09E48 | 0020 | CSO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S08E47 area: 0120 |
| S9983 | 2024.08.01 | S19W15 |
 |
||||||||
| S9984 | 2024.08.02 | 18 | 8 | S13E31 | 0110 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S9985 | 2024.08.02 | N22E31 |
 |
||||||||
| S9986 | 2024.08.03 | 4 | 2 | S28E57 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S9987 | 2024.08.03 | 1 | 1 | N04E02 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9988 | 2024.08.03 | 1 | 1 | N23W47 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9989 | 2024.08.03 | 6 | 4 | S12E80 | 0100 | DAO |
 |
||||
| S9990 | 2024.08.03 | 2 | 2 | S08E85 | 0820 | HKX |
 |
||||
| S9991 | 2024.08.03 | 5 | 3 | N00E39 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9992 | 2024.08.03 | 1 | N18E72 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9993 | 2024.08.03 | 1 | N24W54 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 97 | 229 | 120 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 217 | 439 | 300 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 167 | 311 | 202 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 238 | 241 | 240 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.2 (+1.3) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.8 (+3.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.4 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.1 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | (134.7 projected, +3.6) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | (138.1 projected, +3.4) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 136.5 | (141.7 projected, +3.6) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 (cycle peak) |
191.9 | 171.7 | (146.2 projected, +4.5) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.2 | (149.9 projected, +3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.9 | 203.0 | 196.5 (SC25 peak) | (151.4 projected, +1.5) | 7.1 |
| 2024.08 | 242.0(1) | 22.9 (2A) / 236.3 (2B) / 225.9 (2C) | (151.3 projected, -0.1) | (11.4) | |
| 2024.09 | (151.2 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (151.1 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.11 | (149.1 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.12 | (144.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.01 | (138.6 projected, -6.2) | ||||
| 2025.02 | (133.7 projected, -4.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot counts in July 2024 were the highest we've seen during solar cycle 25. With three consecutive months of high sunspot counts the projected peak for the smoothed ISN (365 days smoothing) has increased significantly to near 150. The month of the peak is currently likely to occur sometime between June and October 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
