The geomagnetic field was quiet on April 22, weakly under the influence of effects from CH1214. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels at the end of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 226.8 - increasing 48.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 158.16. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1). Three hour interval K indices: 22221112 (planetary), 23323322 (Boulder), 32422134 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 21 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 550) and in 19 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 358) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13638 [S18W50] decayed slowly and still
has polarity intermixing.
Region 13639 [N28W41] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 13643 [S11W38] displayed major changes with quick development
in the leading spot section. The region could merge with AR 13647 given
further development. A magnetic delta structure formed and M class flaring
is possible.
Region 13644 [N12W06] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 13645 [S08W50] decayed slowly and lost the magnetic delta.
Region 13646 [N22E15] displayed major changes as the trailing spot
section decayed quickly. Positive polarity flux is emerging in and around
the negative polarity leader spots. A major flare is possible given further
development.
Region 13647 [S13W43] decayed and appears to be merging with AR
13643.
Region 13648 [N18W16] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13649 [N16W63] developed as new flux emerged.
Region 13650 [S10W22] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13652 [N14E15] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13653 [N02E45] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13654 [S08E46] developed quickly as new flux emerged. A major
flare is possible. The region produced an M3.6 flare at 03:19 UT on April
23.
Region 13655 [S27E50] developed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 13656 [S12E61] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13657 [S12E29] rotated into view on April 19 and was
numbered by SWPC 3 days later as the region developed slowly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9600 [N15W00] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region
S9621 [S22W03] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9622 [S17E15] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9623 [S44W15] emerged with tiny spots, although
only one was large enough to be countable.
New region S9624 [S22W61] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.5 | 00:39 | S12W22 | 13643 | GOES16 | |
| C3.4 | 02:33 | 13655 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 02:42 | 13655 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 03:17 | 13647 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13636 by SWPC | |
| C5.5 | 03:25 | 13636 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 03:45 | 13655 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13646 | |
| C4.0 | 03:53 | 13638 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 04:19 | 13655 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 05:06 | 13647 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.9 | 05:37 | 13638 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 06:16 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 06:40 | 13643 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 07:51 | 13643 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 08:13 | S07W36 | 13645 | GOES16 | |
| C4.9 | 09:04 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 09:44 | 13646 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 10:18 | 13646 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 10:47 | 13655 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 11:20 | 13654 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 11:30 | 13638 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 11:36 | 13646 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 12:12 | 13638 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 13:35 | S10W39 | 13647 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13656 (S10E69) |
| M1.1 | 14:55 | 13645 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13646 by SWPC | |
| M1.6 | 15:19 | 13646 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.8 | 15:50 | S11E69 | 13656 | GOES16 | nearly simultaneous flares in ARs 13645, 13646 and 13638 |
| M1.0 | 16:30 | 13656 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 16:47 | 13656 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13649 | |
| C3.9 | 17:48 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 18:48 | 13649 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 19:18 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 20:05 | 13656 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 20:20 | 13656 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 20:49 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 21:16 | S17W48 | 13638 | GOES16 | strong type II radio sweep |
| C6.3 | 22:13 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.1 | 22:54 | S07W47 | 13645 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0 | 23:18 | 13645 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 23:52 | 13643 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13656 |
April 20, 22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
April 21: A faint CME was observed after the M3.4 flare in AR 13638
late in the day. It is uncertain if this CME has any Earth directed components,
however, there is a slight chance of CME effects on February 24-25.
April 23: A filament eruption near the central meridian began at
03:18 UT. While LASCO imagery covering the hours after this event is not yet
available as this is written, it is not yet certain if there was an Earth
directed CME.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1215) will be Earth facing on April 22-23.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on April 23-24. April 25-26 could see quiet to minor storm conditions due to effects from CH1215.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13636 | 2024.04.10 2024.04.11 |
1 | S21W70 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
spotless | ||||
| 13637 | 2024.04.12 2024.04.13 |
2 | S13W55 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
spotless | ||||
| 13638 | 2024.04.12 2024.04.13 |
9 | 16 | 8 | S18W51 | 0080 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S18W50 |
| 13639 | 2024.04.13 2024.04.14 |
12 | 23 | 9 | N28W44 | 0200 | EAI | ESO |
 |
 |
location: N28W41 |
| 13640 | 2024.04.14 | N21W55 | |||||||||
| 13643 | 2024.04.15 | 7 | 48 | 18 | S13W32 | 0020 | CRO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: S11W38 |
| 13644 | 2024.04.16 2024.04.16 |
3 | 7 | 5 | N14W04 | 0150 | DAO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N12E07 area: 0060 |
| 13646 | 2024.04.16 2024.04.17 |
14 | 39 | 19 | N21W01 | 0100 | CAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta locaton: N22E02 area: 0260 |
| S9600 | 2024.04.16 | 6 | 3 | N15W00 | 0080 | CAO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13650 | 2024.04.16 2024.04.19 |
8 | 29 | 16 | S10W23 | 0100 | CAI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S10W22 |
| 13648 | 2024.04.17 2024.04.18 |
10 | 7 | N18W16 | 0025 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S9604 | 2024.04.17 | S18W54 | |||||||||
| 13645 | 2024.04.17 2024.04.17 |
18 | 37 | 21 | S09W50 | 0260 | DKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0530 location: S08W50 |
| 13647 | 2024.04.17 2024.04.18 |
17 | 25 | 15 | S13W44 | 0200 | DAC | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S11W38 |
| 13649 | 2024.04.18 2024.04.19 |
3 | 8 | 5 | N15W68 | 0020 | CSO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N16W63 asrea: 0040 |
| 13651 | 2024.04.18 2024.04.19 |
N15W17 | location: N12W13 | ||||||||
| S9611 | 2024.04.18 | S29W49 | |||||||||
| S9612 | 2024.04.19 2024.04.21 |
S20E31 |
 |
||||||||
| 13657 | 2024.04.19 | 2 | 7 | 3 | S11E31 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
locaton: S12E29 |
| 13652 | 2024.04.19 2024.04.20 |
6 | 19 | 8 | N15E17 | 0120 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 locaton: N14E15 |
| S9615 | 2024.04.19 | S33W23 | |||||||||
| 13654 | 2024.04.20 2024.04.21 |
2 | 28 | 17 | S09E45 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S08E46 area: 0160 |
| 13653 | 2024.04.20 2024.04.21 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N02E45 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0004 |
| S9618 | 2024.04.20 | N07W23 | |||||||||
| S9619 | 2024.04.20 | N15W44 |
 |
||||||||
| 13655 | 2024.04.21 | 6 | 16 | 5 | S28E50 | 0030 | CRO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S27E50 area: 0200 |
| 13656 | 2024.04.21 2024.04.21 |
2 | 7 | 5 | S12E60 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S12E61 area: 0030 |
| S9621 | 2024.04.22 | 3 | 1 | S22W03 | 0007 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S9622 | 2024.04.22 | 7 | 2 | S17E15 | 0012 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S9623 | 2024.04.22 | 1 | S44W15 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9624 | 2024.04.22 | 2 | S22W61 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|
||||
| Total spot count: | 113 | 340 | 168 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 283 | 550 | 358 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 167 | 414 | 242 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 311 | 303 | 286 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.1 (+3.3) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.9 (+1.8) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 124.1 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.2 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.3 (-0.9) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 123.8 (-0.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (123.8 projected, 0.0) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (123.5 projected, -0.3) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (120.1 projected, -3.4) | 9.60 |
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 123.0 | (116.8 projected, -3.3) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 124.6 | (116.0 projected, -0.8) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 104.9 | (115.4 projected, -0.6) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.1 (1) | 96.7 (2A) / 131.8 (2B) / 145.3 (2C) | (115.4 projected, -0.0) | (10.1) | |
| 2024.05 | (116.6 projected, +1.2) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (115.8 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.07 | (114.1 projected, -1.7) | ||||
| 2024.08 | (112.1 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2024.09 | (110.9 projected, -1.2) | ||||
| 2024.10 | (110.3 projected, -0.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity saw a significant decrease during the latter half of February and the first part of March. While there is still a chance that there could be another and higher peak in October or November 2023, chances that June 2023 was solar max has increased. After November 2023 there is currently no other obvious candidate solar max month. Taking into account the state of the solar polar fields another major peak during SC25 is becoming less likely.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
