The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 369 and 465 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. A weak solar wind disturbance was observed arriving at DSCOVR at 01:55 UT on September 17, likely the September 14 CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 140.4 - decreasing 5.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 154.05. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 10110233 (planetary), 10112322 (Boulder), 20011364 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 210) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 124) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13423 [N18W84] rotated mostly out of view with only a couple
of trailing spots visible by the end of the day. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 11:26 UT
Region 13425 [N24W59] decayed quickly and was
quiet.
Region 13429 [N11W22] decayed substantially after the 2 M flares
early in the day. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 03:31, C1.4 @ 04:13, C1.7 @ 07:52, C1.6
@ 11:47, C1.6 @ 13:05, C1.9 @ 13:19, C1.5 @ 13:58, C1.7 @ 15:10, C1.1 @
23:22 UT
Region 13430 [S17W73] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13433 [N28E11] was quiet and stable.
Region 13434 [N08W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13435 [N10E80] rotated into view and produced a few C
flares. The leader spot could be a separate region. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 16:20,
C1.4 @ 18:46 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8960 [S13W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8961 [S13W23] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S8964 [N23W52] developed slowly and quietly.
S8965 [S19W35] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8966 [S07E64] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S8968 [N15E10] was observed with
tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S8969 [N14W56] emerged with a tiny spot.
An unusually large filament eruption began just after 04h and peaked after 08h UT. The filament extended from north of AR 13433 to the west of AR 13429, and then southwards to just north of AR 13431. Early LASCO C2 imagery has a CME appearing first over the west limb at 09:12 UT and was soon afterwards observed as an asymmetrical full halo CME.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M2.9/1N | 00:50 | N11W09 | 13429 | GOES16 | |
| C5.0 | 05:24 | 13435 | GOES18 | ||
| M3.4/1B | 05:38 | N11W11 | 13429 | GOES18 | |
| C2.1 | 07:11 | N12W10 | 13429 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 07:29 | 13429 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 07:40 | 13429 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 12:05 | 13429 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 13:25 | 13429 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 15:51 | 13435 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 15:57 | 13429 | GOES16 |
September 14: A long duration M1.2 (estimated) event started at 06:39
to the northeast of AR 13423 and peaked near 07:45 UT. LASCO C2 imagery
displays the leading edge of a CME off the northwest limb at 07:24 UT. This
CME later expanded to become a full halo CME. The CME likely arrived at
Earth early on September 17.
September 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
September 16: A CME was observed just after 09h UT due
to an extensive filament eruption across the central meridian. The full halo
CME will probably reach Earth on September 19.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1172) was Earth facing on September 11-13. Several coronal hole formed after the extensive filament eruption on September 16. CH1173 is a positive polarity trans equatorial coronal hole and was Earth facing on September 16. Positive polarity coronal hole CH1174 formed in the northern hemisphere on September 16 and will rotate across the central meridian on September 16-17. A negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1174) will likely become Earth facing on September 19.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on September 17 due to the September 14 CME, quiet on September 18 and then quiet to major storm on September 19-20 when the September 16 CME reaches Earth. Effects from CH1173 and CH1174 are possible on September 20 and could extend into September 21. On September 22 a high speed stream from CH1175 will likely arrive and cause quiet t6o active conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13423 | 2023.09.03 2023.09.04 |
2 | N18W84 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|
|||
| 13424 | 2023.09.05 2023.09.05 |
N17W76 |
location: N17W69 |
||||||||
| 13425 | 2023.09.05 2023.09.06 |
6 | 6 | 2 | N24W65 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N24W59 area: 0015 |
| S8934 | 2023.09.06 | S22W48 | |||||||||
| 13427 | 2023.09.07 2023.09.09 |
S27W68 | location: S29W63 | ||||||||
| S8940 | 2023.09.08 | S22W24 | |||||||||
| 13429 | 2023.09.09 2023.09.10 |
16 | 26 | 17 | N11W22 | 0090 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0170 |
| 13434 | 2023.09.09 2023.09.15 |
2 | 2 | 1 | N08W14 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0005 |
| 13431 | 2023.09.09 2023.09.10 |
S08W23 |
 |
location: S10W17 |
|||||||
| S8945 | 2023.09.09 | N27W39 | |||||||||
| 13430 | 2023.09.10 2023.09.10 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S17W74 | 0030 | HRX | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S8948 | 2023.09.10 | N12W45 |
 |
||||||||
| 13433 | 2023.09.10 2023.09.12 |
1 | 6 | 4 | N28E10 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 location: N28E11 |
| S8954 | 2023.09.11 | N15E02 |
 |
||||||||
| S8955 | 2023.09.11 | N23W41 | |||||||||
| S8956 | 2023.09.12 | S10W49 | |||||||||
| S8958 | 2023.09.12 | S24W43 | |||||||||
| S8960 | 2023.09.13 | 2 | S13W27 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8961 | 2023.09.13 | 1 | 1 | S13W23 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8962 | 2023.09.13 | N08W56 | |||||||||
| S8963 | 2023.09.13 | N18W28 | |||||||||
| S8964 | 2023.09.14 | 5 | 3 | N23W52 | 0020 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8965 | 2023.09.15 | 3 | S19W35 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8966 | 2023.09.15 | 1 | S07E64 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13435 | 2023.09.16 2023.09.16 |
2 | 4 | 2 | N10E69 | 0090 | DSO | DHO |
 |
this may be 2 separate ARs area: 0410 location: N10E80 |
|
| S8968 | 2023.09.16 | 7 | 3 | N15E10 | 0014 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8969 | 2023.09.16 | 1 | N14W56 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 28 | 70 | 34 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 88 | 210 | 124 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 49 | 96 | 60 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 97 | 115 | 99 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.1 (+2.2) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.4 (+6.7) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.9 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | (121.0 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (126.3 projected, +5.3) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (131.9 projected, +5.6) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.1 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (135.5 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.9 | (137.3 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 148.0 (1) | 61.7 (2A) / 115.8 (2B) / 115.8 (2C) | (140.7 projected, +3.4) | (11.9) | |
| 2023.10 | (142.5 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (145.1 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (144.2 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (141.4 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (141.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (140.8 projected, -0.4) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
