The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 29. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 377 and 467 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 170.6 - increasing 12.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 158.08. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22111021 (planetary), 12312221 (Boulder), 32212021 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 270) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 188) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13492 [N19W56] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13493 [S12W48] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13494 [S17W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13500 [S17W15] gained spots and expanded longitudinally.
Although the region is less magnetically complex than a couple of days ago,
there is still potential for M class flaring. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 17:56, C1.2
@ 19:33, C1.4 @ 20:38 UT
Region 13501 [S08W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 13502 [N14W52] decayed slowly and produced a few flares. C1
flares: C1.8 @ 05:34, C1.9 @ 06:58, C1.9 @ 21:12 UT
Region 13503 [N21E08] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 13505 [S17E55] was quiet and stable.
New region 13506 [N16W22] was first observed with spots on November
26 and developed slowly on November 29 when it was numbered by SWPC.
New region 13507 [N08E68] rotated into view on November 28 with SWPC
numbering the region the following day.
New region 13508 [S15E66] rotated into view on November 28 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9156 [N21W72] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
S9173 [N13W33] was quiet and stable.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 00:22 | behind northwest limb | 13504 | GOES18 | |
| C2.5 | 00:43 | 13502 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 04:47 | 13502 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 05:41 | 13502 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 06:23 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 07:21 | 13493 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 07:31 | 13502 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.4 | 08:03 | 13502 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 09:56 | 13499 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 11:33 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 13:25 | 13499 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 13:33 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 14:35 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 15:34 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 16:01 | 13500 | GOES18 | attributed to AR 13507 by SWPC | |
| C2.8 | 16:13 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 22:41 | S18W14 | 13500 | GOES18 |
November 27: Several CMEs were observed during the day. The first one
involved a filament eruption beginning
just before 05h UT in SDO/AIA imagery. The eruption in the southwestern
quadrant extended from close to the central meridian at its southernmost
point to near the equator in the northwestern part of the filament channel.
Coronal dimming was observed. A partial halo CME was observed and could
reach Earth early on November 30. The second filament eruption began near
18:17 UT and occurred in the northeastern quadrant. The eruption affected
areas as far south as AR 13500 and resulted in at least a partial halo CME,
maybe a faint full halo CME. This CME is likely to reach Earth on December 1. The third filament eruption also occurred in the northeastern quadrant
and further east than the previous eruption. This event began near 23:07 UT in
SDO/AIA imagery. A partial halo CME was observed after this event and could
influence Earth on December 1.
November 28: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the M3.4 flare in AR
13500 at 19:32 UT. Another and brighter symmetrical full halo CME was
observed after the major M9.8 flare at 19:50 UT. The CMEs are expected to
merge. The combined CME is likely directed straight at Earth.
November 29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A well defined large recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1190) will likely rotate across the central meridian on December 1-2.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on November 30 as the first of the November 27 CMEs is likely to reach Earth. The second CME will likely arrive later in the day or early on December 1 and could increase the disturbance to major storm levels. The last of the Nov.27 CMEs may have an Earth directed component that could reach us on December 1. The November 28 halo CMEs are expected to combine and reach Earth on December 1 resulting in minor to severe storm conditions that day and on December 2. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on December 3. Effects from CH1190 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on December 3-5.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13497 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.20 |
N17W77 | location: N18W67 | ||||||||
| S9156 | 2023.11.18 | 2 | 2 | N21W72 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13490 | 2023.11.18 | N22W70 | |||||||||
| 13492 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.20 |
3 | 13 | 4 | N19W60 | 0070 | DSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0190 location: N19W56 |
| 13491 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.19 |
N11W66 | location: N10W60 | ||||||||
| 13493 | 2023.11.20 2023.11.20 |
1 | 7 | 2 | S12W48 | 0010 | HAX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| S9162 | 2023.11.20 | S17W54 | |||||||||
| 13494 | 2023.11.20 2023.11.20 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S17W43 | 0020 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: S17W41 in general bad SWPC area data this day |
| 13495 | 2023.11.20 | N25W66 | apparently spots in the northeastern part of AR S9156 | ||||||||
| S9166 | 2023.11.20 | S33W56 | |||||||||
| 13500 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
25 | 68 | 40 | S18W18 | 0210 | ESC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S17W15 area: 0650 |
| 13499 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
2 | S17W73 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
spotless |
||||
| 13501 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
1 | 3 | 1 | S09W09 | 0030 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0110 location: S08W07 |
| 13502 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
4 | 19 | 7 | N14W51 | 0030 | DAO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N14W52 |
| S9173 | 2023.11.22 | 3 | N13W33 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 13503 | 2023.11.23 2023.11.25 |
1 | 7 | 2 | N15E04 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N21E08 area: 0020 SWPC location is way off |
| 13506 | 2023.11.26 2023.11.29 |
3 | 14 | 6 | N15W24 | 0010 | HRX | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: N16W22 |
| S9180 | 2023.11.26 | N38W42 | |||||||||
| 13505 | 2023.11.27 2023.11.28 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S18E55 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: S17E55 |
| 13508 | 2023.11.28 2023.11.29 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S14E65 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0170 location: S15E66 |
| 13507 | 2023.11.28 2023.11.29 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N08E70 | 0060 | HSX | HHX |
 |
 |
area: 0330 location: N08E68 |
| S9186 | 2023.11.28 | S09E14 |
 |
||||||||
| S9187 | 2023.11.28 | S27W37 |
 |
|
|||||||
| Total spot count: | 44 | 140 | 68 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 164 | 270 | 188 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 92 | 192 | 120 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 180 | 149 | 150 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.0 (+3.2) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.7 (+1.7) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | (124.7 projected, +2.0) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | (127.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (128.3 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (130.1 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 133.6 | (133.5 projected, +3.4) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (135.2 projected, +1.7) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.1 (1) | 100.9 (2A) / 104.3 (2B) / 124.3 (2C) | (137.8 projected max SC25, +2.6) | (12.6) | |
| 2023.12 | (137.1 projected, -0.7) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (134.4 projected, -2.7) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (134.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (133.7 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (134.5 projected, +0.8) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (135.8 projected, +1.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
