The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 23 under the weakening influence of effects from CH1187. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 386 and 544 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 194.2 - increasing 66.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 156.96. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33311000 (planetary), 22322211 (Boulder), 34221000 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 351) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 235) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13489 [S13W09] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet.
Region 13491 [N10E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13492 [N20E23] decayed slowly and was less active than during
the previous days.
Region 13493 [S12E32] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13494 [S17E37] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13496 [N07W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13497 [N18E11] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13498 [S11W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13499 [S17E04] emerged with several spots on November 22
and was numbered by SWPC the following day.
New region 13500 [S18E64] rotated into view on November 22 and
developed slowly on November 23 when it was numbered by SWPC. The region is
complex and compact and could produce a major flare.
New region 13501 [S09E72] rotated into view on November 22 and
received its NOAA number the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9156 [N22E12] developed slowly and could produce another M flare.
The region still has weak magnetic delta structures in the southern part.
S9164 [S08W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
S9171 [N08W03] decayed slowly and quietly.
S9172 [N15E28] displayed signs of decay during the latter half of the
day. M class flares are still possible.
New region S9174 [N21E85] began to rotate into view late in
the day. This region may have been the source of an M1.4 limb event early in
the day.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C5.4 | 01:45 | 13492 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 13500 | |
| M1.4 | 03:38 | behind northeast limb | S9174? | GOES18 | |
| C7.8 | 05:44 | N19E35 | 13492 | GOES18 | |
| C6.7 | 07:14 | N15E34 | S9172 | GOES18 | |
| C3.2 | 08:44 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.6 | 09:37 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 10:23 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 11:20 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.3 | 12:46 | S9156 | GOES18 | ||
| C6.2 | 13:14 | 13500 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.1 | 14:37 | S9156 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 15:21 | 13493 | GOES18 | ||
| C5.9 | 15:38 | N21E17 | S9156 | GOES18 | |
| C2.4 | 16:42 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 17:59 | 13489 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 18:28 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 18:41 | 13492 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 19:21 | S9172 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 19:44 | S9164 | GOES18 | ||
| C9.1 | 20:39 | S9156 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.0 | 21:05 | S9156 | GOES18 |
November 21, 23: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 22: A filament eruption in the southeast quadrant early in
the day was associated with a partial halo CME. This CME may have an Earth
directed component, in which case we could see geomagnetic effects on
November 25. Another filament eruption in the southwest quadrant late in the
day may have been associated with another partial halo CME, however, it is
uncertain if this CME has any Earth directed component.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A well defined positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1187) was Earth facing on November 18. A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1189) will be Earth facing on November 23-24.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 24. If the Nov.22 CMEs reach Earth, we could see unsettled to active conditions on November 25-26. Effects from CH1189 could cause quiet to minor storm conditions on November 26-27.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S9141 | 2023.11.13 | N25W50 | |||||||||
| 13488 | 2023.11.14 2023.11.14 |
N31W46 |
 |
location: N29W42 |
|||||||
| S9149 | 2023.11.16 | S08W49 | |||||||||
| 13489 | 2023.11.16 2023.11.17 |
7 | 26 | 11 | S14W09 | 0120 | CAI | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S13W09 |
| S9151 | 2023.11.16 | S24W32 | |||||||||
| 13497 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.20 |
11 | 5 | N16E08 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N18E11 SWPC includes this region in AR 13490 |
||
| S9156 | 2023.11.18 | 16 | 9 | N22E12 | 0230 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta SWPC apparently considers this region as two groups (13490 and 13495) |
||
| 13490 | 2023.11.18 | 10 | N21E11 | 0160 | DAC | ||||||
| S9157 | 2023.11.18 | N13W31 | |||||||||
| 13492 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.20 |
26 | 32 | 18 | N19E24 | 0320 | EKC | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0460 |
| 13491 | 2023.11.18 2023.11.19 |
2 | 11 | 3 | N11E18 | 0060 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N10E18 area: 0090 |
| 13496 | 2023.11.19 2023.11.20 |
2 | N09W06 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N07W05 | |||
| 13493 | 2023.11.20 2023.11.20 |
2 | 11 | 6 | S12E32 | 0070 | CSO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0170 |
| S9162 | 2023.11.20 | S17E24 | |||||||||
| 13494 | 2023.11.20 2023.11.20 |
1 | 4 | 2 | S17E37 | 0050 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 |
| 13495 | 2023.11.20 | 1 | N25E18 | 0010 | AXX | apparently the spots in the northeastern part of AR S9156 | |||||
| S9164 | 2023.11.20 | 3 | 1 | S08W54 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S9166 | 2023.11.20 | S33E22 | |||||||||
| 13498 | 2023.11.21 2023.11.21 |
4 | 5 | 4 | S12W65 | 0040 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S11W54 |
| S9167 | 2023.11.21 | S09W58 | |||||||||
| 13500 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
6 | 19 | 9 | S18E65 | 0520 | DKO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0670 |
| 13499 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
6 | 23 | 12 | S18E04 | 0090 | DSI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S17E04 |
| 13501 | 2023.11.22 2023.11.23 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S10E73 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0170 location: S09E72 |
| S9171 | 2023.11.22 | 7 | 4 | N08W03 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S9172 | 2023.11.22 | 19 | 10 | N15E28 | 0320 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta | ||
| S9173 | 2023.11.22 | N11E46 |
 |
||||||||
| S9174 | 2023.11.23 | 1 | N21E85 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 66 | 191 | 95 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 176 | 351 | 235 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 126 | 252 | 156 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 194 | 193 | 188 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.0 (+3.2) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.7 (+1.7) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | (124.7 projected, +2.0) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | (127.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (128.3 projected, +0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (130.1 projected, +1.8) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 133.6 | (133.5 projected, +3.4) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (135.2 projected, +1.7) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 146.7 (1) | 68.0 (2A) / 88.7 (2B) / 107.2 (2C) | (137.8 projected max SC25, +2.6) | (12.8) | |
| 2023.12 | (137.1 projected, -0.7) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (134.4 projected, -2.7) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (134.2 projected, -0.2) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (133.7 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (134.5 projected, +0.8) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (135.8 projected, +1.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Looking back 6 months, the 365d smoothed values for solar flux and all sunspot numbers with the exception of NOAA's, are all above their solar cycle 24 peak. The first peak of solar cycle 25 is forecast to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, however, there is a small probability that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
