The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 6 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1133. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 568 and 738 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 188.0 - increasing 3.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 136.21). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.5). Three hour interval K indices: 43323334 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 54333346 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 373) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 266) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13238 [N08W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13239 [N33W08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13240 [S18W05] developed early in the day, then decayed
slowly.
Region 13241 [N28E07] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13242 [N09E11] still has a magnetic delta in
an intermediate spot section. The leader spot became symmetrical and lost
area. A major flare is possible.
Region 13243 [N19W74] decayed slowly and became less active after the
major flare early in the day.
Region 13244 [S22W60] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13245 [S22W37] developed and became a compact region. A major
flare is possible.
Region 13246 [N23E54] was quiet and stable.
New region 13247 [S23E68] rotated into view on March 5 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 13248 [N15W60] emerged on March 5 and developed further on
March 6 when the group was numbered by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8327 [S09W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8331 [S33W22] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S8341 [S05E04] was quiet and stable.
New region S8342 [N08W70] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8343 [S12E35] emerged with tiny
spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.6 | 01:22 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.8/2N | 02:28 | N19W65 | 13243 | GOES16 | CME. Weak type IV radio sweep |
| C3.6 | 06:02 | 13245 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 07:44 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 07:58 | 13245 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 09:12 | behind NW limb | 13234 | GOES16 | |
| C5.3 | 10:31 | 13245 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13234 behind the NW limb | |
| C5.0 | 12:18 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 12:45 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 14:24 | 13243 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13241 by SWPC | |
| C7.2 | 14:42 | N30E07 | 13241 | GOES16 | |
| C5.0 | 15:00 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 15:19 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 17:14 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 17:50 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 20:54 | 13243 | GOES16 |
March 4-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 6: A faint full halo CME was observed after the major M5.8
flare in AR 13243 early in the day. While the main ejecta will not reach
Earth, there is a chance of weak effects reaching Earth on March 9.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1133) rotated across the central meridian on March 1-3.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on March 7 due to effects from CH1133. Quiet to unsettled is possible on March 8-9.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13244 | 2023.02.25 2023.03.03 |
5 | 19 | 6 | S22W60 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| 13238 | 2023.02.26 2023.02.27 |
1 | 9 | 4 | N11W30 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N08W28 area: 0060 |
| 13239 | 2023.02.27 2023.02.28 |
1 | 5 | 2 | N31W12 | 0120 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N33W08 area: 0150 |
| 13241 | 2023.02.28 2023.03.01 |
1 | 10 | 4 | N27E05 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N28E05 area: 0060 |
| 13240 | 2023.02.28 2023.03.01 |
6 | 8 | 2 | S16W13 | 0010 | CRO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0013 location: S18W05 |
| 13242 | 2023.03.01 2023.03.02 |
23 | 55 | 39 | N10E12 | 0240 | ESC | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0310 location: N09E11 |
| 13243 | 2023.03.01 2023.03.03 |
8 | 14 | 8 | N18W78 | 0110 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0160 location: N19W74 |
| S8325 | 2023.03.01 | N17W54 | |||||||||
| S8326 | 2023.03.02 | S20W28 | |||||||||
| S8327 | 2023.03.02 | 19 | 10 | S09W22 | 0070 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13245 | 2023.03.02 2023.03.03 |
9 | 31 | 18 | S23E33 | 0250 | DKO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0420 location: S22E37 |
| S8330 | 2023.03.03 | S17E25 | |||||||||
| S8331 | 2023.03.03 | 1 | 1 | S30W11 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8332 | 2023.03.03 | N27W54 | |||||||||
| S8333 | 2023.03.04 | N28W33 | |||||||||
| 13246 | 2023.03.04 2023.03.05 |
4 | 9 | 5 | N23E56 | 0080 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N23E54 |
| S8335 | 2023.03.04 | N22E11 | |||||||||
| S8336 | 2023.03.04 | S08E19 |
 |
||||||||
| 13247 | 2023.03.05 2023.03.06 |
2 | 5 | 3 | S23E68 | 0050 | DAO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 |
| 13248 | 2023.03.05 2023.03.06 |
3 | 20 | 11 | N17W47 | 0000 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: N16W44 area: 0100 |
| S8339 | 2023.03.05 | N13W48 |
 |
||||||||
| S8340 | 2023.03.05 | N28W18 |
 |
||||||||
| S8341 | 2023.03.05 | 4 | 2 | S05E04 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8342 | 2023.03.06 | 1 | N08W70 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8343 | 2023.03.06 | 3 | 1 | S12E35 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 63 | 213 | 116 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 173 | 373 | 266 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 117 | 267 | 170 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 190 | 205 | 213 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.3 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.0 projected, +4.7) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.2 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.0 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.8 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.8 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.9 projected, +5.1) | 14.6 |
| 2023.03 | 176.0 (1) | 24.5 (2A) / 126.3 (2B) / 158.8 (2C) | (122.0 projected, +3.1) | (15.1) | |
| 2023.04 | (127.4 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.2 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.4 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (135.9 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (136.9 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
