The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 22. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 389 and 459 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 173.2 - increasing 24.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 144.27. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.9). Three hour interval K indices: 12222221 (planetary), 12322313 (Boulder), 32224454 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 23 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 494) and in 21 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 332) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13333 [S09W76] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13334 [N17W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13335 [S15W47] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13337 [N19W23] developed slowly and produced a few flares
before noon. A weak magnetic delta is in the leading penumbra.
Region 13338 [N11W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13339 [S20E04] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13340 [N22E07] developed further and could produce M class
flares.
Region 13341 [S16E36] was again the main source of activity on the
visible disk. The CME associated with an M4 flare near the end of the day
may have Earth directed components. LASCO imagery was missing for several
hours which makes a more definite forecast difficult.
Region 13344 [N23W72] was quiet and stable.
Region 13345 [N08E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13346 [N08E09] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8682 [N18E07] developed slowly and quietly.
S8686 [S12E53] was quiet and stable.
S8687 [N25E19] was quiet and stable.
S8688 [S27W11] was quiet and stable.
S8690 [S19W12] developed slowly and quietly.
S8692 [S31E61] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S8693 [N09E52] emerged with a few spots.
New region S8694 [N22E74] rotated into view with small spots.
New region S8695 [N16E32] emerged with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New region S8697 [S14W00] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8698 [N37E27] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8699 [N14E76] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
AR 13342 behind the southwest limb produced a C1.8 flare at 02:59 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.2 | 01:10 | N20W09 | 13337 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 02:18 | 13342 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 03:42 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C3.8 | 04:10 | behind southwest limb | 13342 | GOES16 | |
| C3.9 | 04:37 | 13341 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 05:45 | 13342 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 06:13 | 13337 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 08:24 | N19W12 | 13337 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 09:59 | behind southwest limb | 13342 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 10:50 | northeast limb | S8699? | GOES16 | |
| M1.1/1N | 11:21 | S12E44 | 13341 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 13:30 | S17E45 | 13341 | GOES16 | |
| C3.3 | 13:46 | S09E43 | 13341 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 16:16 | 13339 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 16:32 | |northeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 17:43 | 13337 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.8 | 23:44 | 13341 | GOES16 | moderate type II and weak type IV radio sweeps. CME |
June 22: A CME was observed after the M4 flare
in AR 13341 late in the day. Any Earth directed components would likely
reach us on June 26.
June 21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were
observed.
June 20: A CME associated with X1 flare at 17:09 UT in AR 13341 may
have Earth directed components. In that case a weak shock and unsettled to
minor storm intervals are possible on June 23-24.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1155) could become Earth facing on June 23. CH1155 lost a substantial part of its area on June 21 due to the development of AR 13346.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for June 23-25 with a chance of active to minor storm conditions on June 23-24 if the June 20 CME arrives.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13333 | 2023.06.12 2023.06.13 |
5 | 2 | 1 | S11W71 | 0030 | CAO | HRX |
 |
 |
location: S09W76 |
| 13334 | 2023.06.13 2023.06.13 |
3 | 12 | 3 | N17W40 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N17W38 SWPC added a duplicate region on June 19, AR 13343 |
| 13336 | 2023.06.13 2023.06.14 |
S19W44 |
location: S21W42 northern part merged with AR 13335 on June 21 |
||||||||
| 13335 | 2023.06.13 2023.06.14 |
9 | 30 | 11 | S15W44 | 0230 | ESI | DKI |
 |
 |
area: 0310 location: S15W47 |
| S8661 | 2023.06.14 | N22W36 | |||||||||
| 13337 | 2023.06.14 2023.06.15 |
6 | 22 | 11 | N20W24 | 0060 | DRO | DAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N19W23 area: 0120 |
| 13338 | 2023.06.14 2023.06.15 |
4 | 10 | 4 | N11W22 | 0030 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 location: N11W23 |
| S8670 | 2023.06.16 | N07W13 | |||||||||
| 13339 | 2023.06.16 2023.06.17 |
9 | 31 | 14 | S20E03 | 0140 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0200 location: S20E04 |
| 13340 | 2023.06.17 | 12 | 44 | 24 | N22E07 | 0130 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0230 |
| S8676 | 2023.06.18 | S13E17 | |||||||||
| 13341 | 2023.06.18 2023.06.19 |
7 | 28 | 11 | S16E35 | 0180 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S16E36 area: 0270 |
| S8678 | 2023.06.18 | S01W40 | |||||||||
| 13343 | 2023.06.19 | N16W40 | this is a duplicate of AR 13334 | ||||||||
| 13344 | 2023.06.19 2023.06.20 |
2 | 3 | 2 | N23W73 | 0040 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N23W72 |
| S8680 | 2023.06.19 | S16W00 | |||||||||
| S8682 | 2023.06.19 | 9 | 7 | N18E07 | 0025 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13345 | 2023.06.19 2023.06.20 |
5 | 14 | 5 | N09E33 | 0040 | CSO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: N08E32 |
| 13346 | 2023.06.20 2023.06.21 |
4 | 10 | 3 | N08E08 | 0020 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N08E07 |
| S8686 | 2023.06.20 | 4 | 1 | S12E53 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8687 | 2023.06.20 | 2 | 1 | N25E19 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8688 | 2023.06.21 | 9 | 5 | S27W12 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8689 | 2023.06.21 | N15E51 |
 |
||||||||
| S8690 | 2023.06.21 | 13 | 9 | S19W12 | 0050 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S8691 | 2023.06.21 | S07W33 |
 |
||||||||
| S8692 | 2023.06.21 | 7 | 3 | S31E61 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8693 | 2023.06.22 | 7 | 3 | N09E52 | 0060 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S8694 | 2023.06.22 | 2 | 1 | N22E74 | 0030 | HAX |
 |
||||
| S8695 | 2023.06.22 | 2 | 2 | N16E32 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8697 | 2023.06.22 | 1 | 1 | S14W00 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8698 | 2023.06.22 | 1 | N37E27 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8699 | 2023.06.22 | 1 | N14E76 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 66 | 264 | 122 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 176 | 494 | 332 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 109 | 333 | 191 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 194 | 272 | 266 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | (105.8 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (112.2 projected, +6.4) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (117.0 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (120.1 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (125.5 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (131.2 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 162.8 (1) | 100.1 (2A) / 136.5 (2B) / 175.3 (2C) | (134.3 projected, +3.1) | (7.9) | |
| 2023.07 | (133.8 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (134.8 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (138.2 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (140.1 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.7 projected max SC25) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (142.6 projected, -0.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
