The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 15 due to weak CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 321 and 462 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 178.5 - increasing 14.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 147.35. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1). Three hour interval K indices: 32132111 (planetary), 32232322 (Boulder), 42242101 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 267) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 176) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13363 [S22W46] produced several flares
and lost one magnetic delta in the main penumbra, however, another delta
formed in small southern penumbra. A major flare is possible. C1 flares:
C1.6 @ 04:12, C1.7 @ 06:47, C1.8 @ 11:36, C1.4 @ 12:12, C1.5 @ 13:02, C1.6 @
14:30, C1.4 @ 14:25, C1.6 @ 16:52 UT
Region 13367 [N12W78] rotated partly out of view and was mostly quiet.
Region 13370 [S17W05] was quiet and stable.
Region 13371 [S15E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13372 [N23E28] was somewhat unstable producing C and M flares.
C1 flares: C1.5 @ 01:53, C1.5 @ 15:17 UT
Region 13373 [N08E55] developed significantly and could produce M
flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 13:19, C1.5 @ 18:52 UT
Region 13374 [S08E55] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8753 [S29E03] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8767 [N18W19] emerged before noon with tiny spots and
developed slowly.
New region S8768 [S24E18] was split off from AR 13371.
New region S8769 [N12W25] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8770 [N27W40] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8771 [S32E60] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8772 [N23E61] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
Proton levels increased slowly after 20:20 UT and reached event level at 06:30 UT on July 16. The source could be a C8.8 flare in AR 13363 or a large flare behind the west limb observed before 20h UT. Many backsided CMEs were observed during the day.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.1 | 00:16 | 13368 | GOES18 | moderate type II radio sweep | |
| C2.4 | 02:44 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 06:05 | S20W35 | 13363 | GOES16 | |
| M2.9/2B | 07:41 | S23W37 | 13363 | GOES16 | |
| C4.6 | 08:26 | 13368 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 09:31 | 13363 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 09:53 | 13372 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep | |
| M2.2/1N | 10:10 | 13372 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep | |
| C3.4 | 16:02 | 13373 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.8 | 20:01 | 13363 | GOES16 | weak type II and IV radio sweeps | |
| C2.0 | 20:33 | 13373 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 20:44 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:00 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 21:50 | 13372 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 23:14 | 13363 | GOES16 |
July 13, 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were
observed.
July 14: A CME was observed after an M1 flare in AR 13363 at 09:36
UT. While the main ejecta is not heading towards Earth, there is a chance a
component of the CME could impact Earth on July 17.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in a potentially geoeffective position.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on July 16-18. On July 17 there is a chance of a flanking impact from the July 14 CME. If there CME arrives unsettled to minor storm conditions are likely.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13362 | 2023.07.04 2023.07.05 |
S08W73 |
 |
||||||||
| 13363 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
11 | 33 | 18 | S22W47 | 0720 | DKO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: S22W46 area: 0840 |
| 13364 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
N25W65 |
|
||||||||
| 13367 | 2023.07.07 2023.07.08 |
4 | 6 | 2 | N10W83 | 0080 | DAO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N12W77 |
| 13370 | 2023.07.09 2023.07.10 |
8 | 4 | S15W06 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S17W05 |
||
| S8748 | 2023.07.09 | N31W59 | |||||||||
| 13371 | 2023.07.10 2023.07.11 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S15E07 | 0010 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: S15E08 |
| S8752 | 2023.07.10 | N17W14 |
 |
||||||||
| S8753 | 2023.07.10 | 1 | 1 | S29E03 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| 13372 | 2023.07.11 2023.07.11 |
13 | 27 | 16 | N21E26 | 0660 | EKO | FKO |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N23E28 area: 1080 |
| S8756 | 2023.07.11 | S15W15 | |||||||||
| S8757 | 2023.07.11 | N21W37 | |||||||||
| S8758 | 2023.07.12 | N26W10 | |||||||||
| S8759 | 2023.07.12 | S01W34 | |||||||||
| S8761 | 2023.07.13 | N22W26 | |||||||||
| 13373 | 2023.07.13 2023.07.14 |
6 | 25 | 14 | N06E52 | 0120 | DSO | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0480 location: N08E55 |
| 13374 | 2023.07.13 2023.07.14 |
1 | 5 | 2 | S09E55 | 0030 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S08E55 |
| S8764 | 2023.07.13 | N17E01 | |||||||||
| S8765 | 2023.07.13 | S00E23 | |||||||||
| S8766 | 2023.07.14 | N27E09 |
 |
||||||||
| S8767 | 2023.07.15 | 7 | 4 | N18W19 | 0025 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S8768 | 2023.07.15 | 2 | 1 | S24E18 | 0006 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S8769 | 2023.07.15 | 7 | 3 | N12W25 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8770 | 2023.07.15 | 1 | N27W40 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8771 | 2023.07.15 | 1 | S32E60 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8772 | 2023.07.15 | 2 | N23E61 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 36 | 127 | 66 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 96 | 267 | 176 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 76 | 179 | 118 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 106 | 147 | 141 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.7 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.5 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.6 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (127.0 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (132.7 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.9 |
| 2023.07 | 176.6 (1) | 72.3 (2A) / 149.3 (2B) / 171.5 (2C) | (135.4 projected, -0.5) | (7.2) | |
| 2023.08 | (136.4 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.8 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (141.6 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (144.2 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (143.4 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (140.1 projected, -3.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
