The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 337 and 426 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. A weak solar wind transient was observed beginning at DSCOVR at 13:21 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 154.6 - decreasing 13.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 146.41. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 11001223 (planetary), 21023323 (Boulder), 32001323 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 320) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 187) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13355 [S15W40] developed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13357 [S07W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13358 [S13E05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13359 [S21E01] still has a couple of magnetic delta
configurations and could produce an M class flare.
Region 13360 [N23E08] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.9 @ 21:40 UT
Region 13361 [N23E29] developed slowly and has M class flare
potential, mostly due to polarity intermixing.
New region 13362 [S09E62] rotated into view on July 4 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8717 [S10E15] was quiet and stable.
S8725 [S19E18] was quiet and stable.
S8733 [N31E30] was quiet and stable.
New region S8734 [S20E84] rotated into view
with a huge spot. While the region was mostly quiet, there is a chance of a major
flare.
New region S8735 [N18W22] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8736 [N25E73] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S8737 [N16W39] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8738 [S37E07] emerged with a tiny
spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.5 | 00:30 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5/1F | 01:46 | 13358 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13354. Incorrectly attributed to AR 13359 by SWPC | |
| C2.4 | 02:04 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 02:24 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 03:16 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.9 | 03:28 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 04:08 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 04:12 | N16W80 | 13354 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 05:01 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 06:56 | 13354 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13359 | |
| C2.7 | 08:43 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 09:15 | 13359 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 09:31 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 10:39 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 10:43 | N15W87 | 13354 | GOES16 | |
| C8.2 | 11:00 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 11:49 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 13:50 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 15:50 | S21E07 | 13359 | GOES16 | |
| C5.4 | 16:11 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 18:00 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 18:17 | S8734 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 18:58 | 13354 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13361 by SWPC | |
| C3.5 | 19:50 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 22:04 | 13354 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 22:46 | 13361 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13360 by SWPC | |
| C2.3 | 23:29 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 23:47 | 13359 | GOES16 |
July 3, 5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were
observed.
July 4: A filament eruption in the southeast quadrant
was observed beginning near 02:30 UT and was associated with a partial halo CME.
This CME could reach Earth on July 7.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1158) was Earth facing on July 4-5. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1159) will likely rotate across the central meridian on July 9-11.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on July 6. On July 7 effects from the July 4 CME could cause unsettled to major storm conditions. A high speed stream associated with CH1158 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on July 7-8.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13355 | 2023.06.26 2023.06.27 |
10 | 6 | S16W46 | 0035 | CRI |
 |
 |
location: S15W40 |
||
| 13356 | 2023.06.29 2023.06.30 |
S07W35 |
 |
location: S08W27 | |||||||
| S8711 | 2023.06.29 | N14W29 | |||||||||
| S8712 | 2023.06.29 | S12W56 | |||||||||
| 13357 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
9 | 19 | 10 | S06W21 | 0010 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
location: S07W20 area: 0050 |
| 13358 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
10 | 32 | 14 | S11W02 | 0010 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
location: S13E05 area: 0050 |
| 13359 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
12 | 21 | 14 | S21W00 | 0140 | DSO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S21E01 area: 0230 |
| S8717 | 2023.06.30 | 12 | 2 | S10E15 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8718 | 2023.06.30 | N14W30 | |||||||||
| 13360 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
6 | 20 | 9 | N23E07 | 0030 | CRO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N23E08 area: 0080 |
| S8720 | 2023.06.30 | N30W51 | |||||||||
| S8721 | 2023.06.30 | N17W14 | |||||||||
| S8724 | 2023.07.02 | N09W01 | |||||||||
| S8725 | 2023.07.02 | 10 | 2 | S20E18 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8726 | 2023.07.02 | S37W01 | |||||||||
| 13361 | 2023.07.02 2023.07.04 |
3 | 34 | 17 | N23E31 | 0010 | CAO | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N23E29 area: 0230 suspect SWPC data |
| S8729 | 2023.07.02 | N40W59 | |||||||||
| S8730 | 2023.07.03 | N18E02 | |||||||||
| 13362 | 2023.07.04 2023.07.05 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S10E60 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S09E62 |
| S8733 | 2023.07.04 | 3 | N31E30 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8734 | 2023.07.05 | 2 | 1 | S20E84 | 0770 | HHX |
 |
||||
| S8735 | 2023.07.05 | 1 | N18W22 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8736 | 2023.07.05 | 1 | N25E73 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8737 | 2023.07.05 | 3 | N16W39 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8738 | 2023.07.05 | 1 | 1 | S37E07 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 41 | 170 | 77 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 101 | 320 | 187 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 59 | 203 | 110 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 111 | 176 | 150 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.7 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.5 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.6 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (127.0 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (132.7 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.9 |
| 2023.07 | 166.1 (1) | 18.8 (2A) / 116.8 (2B) / 172.4 (2C) | (135.4 projected, -0.5) | (4.3) | |
| 2023.08 | (136.4 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.8 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (141.6 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (144.2 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (143.4 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (140.1 projected, -3.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
