The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 10 under the influence of weak coronal hole effects after noon. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 322 and 420 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 193.0 - increasing 28.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 126.30). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11112322 (planetary), 10112332 (Boulder), 31001335 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 420) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 273) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13181 [S15W47] lost the main magnetic
delta but still has a weak delta in a northern penumbra. C and M class
flares are possible.
Region 13182 [S17E05] decayed in the trailing spot sections and was
mostly quiet.
Region 13183 [S17W78] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13184 [S13E53] decayed slowly with the magnetic delta
weakening. M class flaring is still likely.
Region 13185 [N19W12] developed slowly. In the central spot section
tiny opposite polarity spots are close to each other and may have been the
cause of a C5 flare. The region is unimpressive but does have weak polarity
intermixing.
New region 13186 [N23E63] rotated into view on January 9 and
developed further on January 10 when it was numbered by SWPC. The leading
penumbra has a strong magnetic delta with almost no separation between
opposite polarity umbrae. Further M and X class flares are likely until the
delta disappears.
New region 13187 [N13E18] emerged on January 9 with SWPC numbering
the region the following day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8133 [N17W78] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8135 [N21W73] decayed further with only tiny spots remaining by the
end of the day.
S8155 [S23W41] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C and M flares
are possible.
S8165 [S07W00] was quiet and stable.
New region S8167 [S17W57] was split off from AR
13181 as a bipolar region formed.
New region S8168 [S24E82] rotated into view with small spots.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
M5.1 | 00:16 | N23E80 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
C6.3 | 00:51 | N23E80 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
M1.0 | 02:16 | S16E75 | 13184 | GOES16 | |
M2.6/2N | 02:41 | S16W26 | 13181 | GOES16 | |
C5.4 | 03:43 | N23E77 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
C2.5 | 05:17 | N23E77 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
C3.8 | 05:59 | S16E75 | 13184 | GOES16 | |
C3.4 | 06:45 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
C5.3 | 08:16 | 13184 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13186 by SWPC | |
C3.7 | 08:30 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
C8.8 | 09:06 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
C2.8 | 10:41 | S8133 | GOES16 | ||
M1.0 | 11:08 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
C4.6 | 11:26 | southeast limb | S8168 | GOES16 | |
C8.5 | 12:17 | southeast limb | S8168 | GOES16 | |
C3.7 | 12:37 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
C5.3 | 12:45 | 13185 | GOES16 | ||
C5.1 | 13:02 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
C6.8 | 13:59 | 13186 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13186 | |
C8.7 | 14:47 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
C6.0 | 15:19 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
C7.3 | 16:13 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
M1.3 | 17:28 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
M1.2 | 17:48 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
C2.9 | 19:10 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
C3.3 | 19:38 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
C2.8 | 20:18 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
C3.6 | 20:46 | 13186 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13182 | |
C2.2 | 21:34 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
X1.0/2B | 22:47 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
C5.2 | 23:57 | 13186 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in AR 13182 and 13181 uncertain which one contributed the most |
January 8-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1124) rotated across the central meridian on January 7.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 11 due to weak effects from CH1124. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on January 12-13.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
S8133 | 2022.12.29 | 1 | 1 | N17W78 | 0080 | HSX | |||||
13180 | 2022.12.30 | 1 | N17W78 | 0050 | HSX | SWPC considers AR S8133 and S8135 to be one region | |||||
S8135 | 2022.12.30 | 1 | N21W73 | 0001 | AXX | ||||||
13181 | 2022.12.31 2023.01.01 |
44 | 39 | 24 | S17W47 | 0700 | EKC | DAI |
area: 0270 beta-gamma-delta location: S15W47 SWPC considers this, ARs S8155 and S8167 as one region |
||
13183 | 2023.01.03 2023.01.05 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S16W77 | 0100 | HAX | HAX |
area: 0050 location: S17W78 |
||
S8153 | 2023.01.04 | S10W52 | |||||||||
13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
51 | 119 | 61 | S16E06 | 0750 | FKC | EKI |
beta-gamma location: S17E05 |
||
S8155 | 2023.01.05 | 35 | 23 | S23W41 | 0520 | DKC | beta-gamma | ||||
S8157 | 2023.01.05 | S02W25 | |||||||||
13185 | 2023.01.06 2023.01.09 |
8 | 24 | 18 | N20W13 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
beta-gamma area: 0090 location: N19W12 |
||
13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
8 | 32 | 14 | S13E53 | 0440 | EKI | DAC | beta-gamma-delta | ||
S8161 | 2023.01.08 | S17W15 | |||||||||
S8162 | 2023.01.08 | S31W09 | |||||||||
13187 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
2 | 11 | 5 | N13E18 | 0010 | AXX | CRO | area: 0025 | ||
13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
5 | 12 | 9 | N25E65 | 0100 | DSO | DAC |
beta-delta location: N23E63 |
||
S8165 | 2023.01.09 | 2 | S07W00 | 0005 | BXO | ||||||
S8167 | 2023.01.10 | 9 | 5 | S17W57 | 0030 | CRO | |||||
S8168 | 2023.01.10 | 2 | 1 | S24E82 | 0020 | HRX | |||||
Total spot count: | 121 | 290 | 163 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 201 | 420 | 273 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 169 | 347 | 220 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 221 | 231 | 218 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
2023.01 | 167.2 (1) | 36.5 (2A) / 113.1 (2B) / 140.9 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (7.9) | |
2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.