The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on February 16 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 325 and 617 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 163.2 - decreasing 54.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 133.11). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 23 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 23.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33544422 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 33444433 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 223) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 144) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13216 [N23W58] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13217 [S12W31] was mostly quiet and stable. C1.
Region 13219 [S08W36] was quiet and stable.
Region 13220 [S13W14] was quiet and stable.
Region 13223 [N13W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 13224 [N20W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13225 [S21W44] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13226 [N10W07] decayed slowly and simplified magnetically. C1
flares: C1.3 @ 15:09 UT
Region 13227 [S03E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13229 [N26E74] rotated into view.
Further C and M class flaring is likely. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 04:09, C1.5 @
07:31, C1.8 @ 09:42, C1.4 @ 20:34 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8279 [N25E03] was quiet and stable.
S8283 [N16E19] was quiet and stable.
AR 13214 behind the northwest limb produced a C1.7 flare at 16:52 and C1.4 flare at 17:44 UT.
Minor update added at 20:10 UT: AR 13229 is the source of a long duration X class flare currently in progress. The flare has not yet reached its peak and was at the X1.7 level at 20:08 UT.
Minor update added at 02:05 UT on Feb.18: The X2.2/2B flare in AR 13229 was associated with a very fast and wide full halo CME. The CME could impact Earth on February 19 and cause active to severe storm conditions.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.1 | 00:32 | 13229 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 05:19 | behind NW limb | 13213 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13226 by SWPC |
| C3.4 | 06:46 | behind NW limb | 13214 | GOES16 | |
| C3.9 | 08:23 | behind NW limb | 13213 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 08:48 | 13229 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13215 by SWPC | |
| C9.0/1F | 10:59 | N27W44 | 13216 | GOES16 | LDE. partial halo CME |
| C2.4 | 13:17 | 13219 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 18:55 | 13229 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13217 by SWPC | |
| C9.1 | 21:16 | 13229 | GOES16 | LDE |
February 14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 15: A filament eruption occurred between ARs 13220 and 13226
starting at 01:07 UT in SDO/AIA imagery. A partial halo CME was observed
afterwards. This CME could reach Earth between noon on February 17 and noon
on February 18.
February 16: A partial halo CME was observed after the C9 flare in
AR13216. A glancing blow is possible on February 19-20.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1130) was Earth facing on February 14. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1131) will likely rotate across the central meridian on February 17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are likely on February 17-18 due to CME effects.Quiet to unsettled is expected on February 19.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13215 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
N22W81 |
location: N23W73 |
||||||||
| 13216 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N24W59 | 0110 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N23W58 area: 0120 |
| 13218 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
N11W52 |
 |
location: N14W47 |
|||||||
| 13217 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
3 | 8 | 3 | S10W34 | 0170 | HSX | CHO |
 |
 |
location: S12W31 area: 0300 |
| 13219 | 2023.02.08 2023.02.09 |
3 | 5 | 3 | S06W41 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S08W36 area: 0020 |
| S8259 | 2023.02.08 | N18W31 | |||||||||
| 13220 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
2 | 7 | 3 | S14W16 | 0150 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0250 location: S13W14 |
| 13221 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
N19W19 |
 |
location: N15W15 |
|||||||
| S8264 | 2023.02.09 | S13W21 | |||||||||
| 13223 | 2023.02.10 2023.02.11 |
1 | 1 | N17W41 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N13W35 | ||
| 13224 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.11 |
16 | 8 | N22W20 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N20W18 |
||
| 13225 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.12 |
3 | 6 | 4 | S21W47 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0015 location: S21W44 |
| 13228 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.13 |
S24W28 |
 |
||||||||
| S8273 | 2023.02.11 | N27W06 | |||||||||
| S8274 | 2023.02.11 | N22E02 | |||||||||
| S8275 | 2023.02.11 | S04W51 | |||||||||
| 13226 | 2023.02.12 2023.02.13 |
17 | 31 | 16 | N10W06 | 0410 | DKI | EKI |
 |
 |
area: 0590 |
| 13227 | 2023.02.12 2023.02.13 |
3 | S03W01 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S03E01 | |||
| S8279 | 2023.02.13 | 15 | 1 | N25E03 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8280 | 2023.02.15 | S35E09 | |||||||||
| S8281 | 2023.02.15 | S11E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S8282 | 2023.02.15 | N18W56 | |||||||||
| S8283 | 2023.02.15 | 2 | N16E19 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13229 | 2023.02.16 2023.02.16 |
2 | 5 | 4 | N30E70 | 0240 | DAO | DKO |
 |
location: N26E74 was AR S8284 area: 0340 |
|
| Total spot count: | 31 | 103 | 44 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 101 | 223 | 144 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 61 | 146 | 87 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 111 | 123 | 115 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (92.4 projected, +5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.4 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.5 projected, +3.1) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.4 projected, +2.9) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (108.2 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (114.2 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 172.7 (1) | 76.2 (2A) / 133.3 (2B) / 162.7 (2C) | (119.2 projected, +5.0) | (12.0) | |
| 2023.03 | (122.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (127.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.8 projected, +3.3) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (136.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
