The geomagnetic field was very quiet on December 31. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 283 and 370 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 146.2 - increasing 8.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 158.48. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.71 on June 27, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.6). Three hour interval K indices: 01000111 (planetary), 01102223 (Boulder), 00000223 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 202) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 104) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13531 [S19W75] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13533 [N13W83] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 13534 [S13E05] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13536 [N05E75] rotated into view as a compact and complex
region with a very tight magnetic delta structure in the northern section.
Another X class event is possible as long as the current delta persists. C1
flares: C1.2 @ 04:39, C1.4 @ 05:05, C1.2 @ 05:59, C1.5 @ 07:41, C1.5 @
11:10, C1.9 @ 17:26 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9269 [N19W09] was quiet and stable.
S9273 [S13E24] was quiet and stable.
New region S9276 [N17W21] emerged with a few tiny spots.
New region S9278 [S09W51] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S9279 [N07E84] rotated partly into view trailing AR 13536.
C1 flares: C1.3 @ 10:15 UT
New region S9280 [N20E06] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S9281 [N08E45] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S9282 [S20E09] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S9283 [N22E52] emerged with tiny spots early in the day,
then decayed slowly.
AR 13530 at the northwest limb was the source of several C1 flares: C1.4 @ 01:14, C1.3 @ 02:52, C1.2 @ 04:46, C1.2 @ 10:01 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 00:19 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 03:13 | 13530 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 08:09 | 13530 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 08:17 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 08:25 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.3 | 09:12 | 13536 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13530 | |
| C2.7 | 12:07 | 13530 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 12:55 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 13:34 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2 | 14:07 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 14:35 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 14:53 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 15:06 | 13530 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 16:11 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 17:46 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 18:15 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 18:39 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 19:12 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 20:37 | 13536 | GOES16 | ||
| X5.0/3B | 21:55 | 13536 | GOES16 | moderate type IV radio sweep very fast partial halo CME |
December 29-30: No obviously Earth directed CME observed.
December 31: A very fast partial halo CME was observed after the X5
flare in AR 13536. While Earth is not in the path of the main ejecta, there
is a substantial chance of strong effects when the CME reaches Earth,
probably on January 2 or 3.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1195) was Earth facing on December 28-31.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 1-3 due to effects from CH1195. The December 31 CME could reach Earth on January 2 or 3 and cause active to major storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13531 | 2023.12.19 2023.12.20 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S20W77 | 0160 | HSX | HHX |
 |
 |
area: 0270 location: S19W75 |
| 13533 | 2023.12.19 2023.12.22 |
2 | 1 | 1 | N14W78 | 0020 | BXO | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0007 |
| 13535 | 2023.12.24 2023.12.28 |
S05W60 |
location: S06W58 |
||||||||
| S9263 | 2023.12.25 | N08W34 | |||||||||
| 13534 | 2023.12.26 2023.12.27 |
10 | 24 | 8 | S13E03 | 0120 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S13E05 |
| S9267 | 2023.12.27 | N23W52 | |||||||||
| S9269 | 2023.12.27 | 3 | N19W09 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S9271 | 2023.12.29 | N00W15 | |||||||||
| S9272 | 2023.12.29 | N18W45 |
 |
||||||||
| S9273 | 2023.12.29 | 4 | 1 | S13E24 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S9274 | 2023.12.29 | S20W39 | |||||||||
| S9275 | 2023.12.30 | S02W05 |
 |
||||||||
| S9276 | 2023.12.31 | 3 | 2 | N17W21 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13536 | 2023.12.31 2023.12.31 |
2 | 16 | 7 | N05E75 | 0080 | HAX | DAC |
 |
beta-delta was AR S9277 area: 0150 |
|
| S9278 | 2023.12.31 | 4 | 2 | S09W51 | 0009 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S9279 | 2023.12.31 | 4 | 2 | N07E84 | 0050 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S9280 | 2023.12.31 | 2 | N20E06 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S9281 | 2023.12.31 | 2 | N08E45 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9282 | 2023.12.31 | 6 | S20E09 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S9283 | 2023.12.31 | 2 | N22E52 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 15 | 72 | 24 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 55 | 202 | 104 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 30 | 100 | 52 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 61 | 111 | 83 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.0 (+3.2) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.7 (+1.7) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 123.9 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.0 (+1.1) (SC25 solar max candidate) |
8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (124.6 projected, -0.4) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (124.1 projected, -0.5) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 133.6 | (123.8 projected, -0.3) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (124.6 projected, +0.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (124.6 projected, +0.0) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | (121.2 projected, -3.4) | 9.7 |
| 2024.01 | (1) | (2A/2B) / 136.2 (2C) | (117.9 projected, -3.3) | () | |
| 2024.02 | (117.1 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (116.6 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (116.6 projected, +0.0) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (117.0 projected, -0.8) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (114.9 projected, -2.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Due to relatively low solar activity over the last couple of months, the possibility that solar cycle 25 has already peaked has increased significantly. Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July depends on solar activity in December and early January 2024. If the average solar flux is less than 150 during this period, the first peak of solar cycle 25 using 365 day smoothing will likely be sometime between June 2 and July 9. Should the average solar flux instead become 140 then the peak date will be in early June (June 4 for solar flux, June 6 for STAR 2K SN, and June 7 for all the other sunspot numbers in the graph above). We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
