The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 297 and 415 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. A gradual increase in solar wind speed, density and temperature was observed after 08h UT and a weak disturbance started near noon. The source of the disturbance is uncertain, it could be a small negative polarity coronal hole or a transient from a CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 126.2 - increasing 7.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 158.06. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50. Current SC25 peak: 158.42 on June 4, 2023). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.9). Three hour interval K indices: 01113321 (planetary), 12214431 (Boulder), 00104431 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 189) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 141) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13513 [N18W29] decayed quickly losing
spots and area as well as all mature penumbra on the trailing spots. C1
flares: C1.5 @ 00:45, C1.3 @ 12:41, C1.1 @ 16:41, C1.6 @ 19:15 UT
Region 13514 [N05W25] developed further and gained two magnetic delta
structures in the northern part of the main penumbra. Several C flares were
recorded and, although SDO/AIA imagery looked interesting, no obvious Earth
directed CME was observed. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @
01:12, C1.0 @ 01:29, C1.1 @ 18:44 UT
Region 13515 [S13E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13516 [S17E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13517 [N15W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13518 [N12E74] rotated into view with a mature spot.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S9222 [N17W02] was quiet and stable.
New region S9232 [S19E12] emerged early in the day, then
decayed slowly after noon.
New region S9233 [S11E51] emerged after noon
with several tiny spots.
New region S9234 [S18E04] emerged with a tiny spot.
A filament eruption behind the southeast limb was the source of an impressive CME, this was recorded as a long duration C1.9 event peaking at 20:19 UT.
AR 13511 produced a C1.3 flare at 00:15, a C1.2 flare
at 07:23 and a C1.5 flare at 17:07 UT from behind the southwest limb.
AR S9214 near the southwest limb gained spots early in the day and produced
a C1.1 flare at 06:46 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C9.1 | 03:38 | N07W12 | 13514 | GOES18 | |
| C3.0 | 09:57 | N07W12 | 13514 | GOES18 | |
| C8.2 | 13:42 | N05W23 | 13514 | GOES18 | |
| C2.6 | 14:31 | 13514 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 22:55 | 13514 | GOES18 |
December 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1192) rotated across the central meridian on December 11-13. Significant decay was observed on December 12 due to the development of ARs 13514 and 13517. A positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1192) will likely be Earth facing on December 15-16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on December 13. Quiet to minor storm is possible on December 14-16 due to effects from CH1192.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13512 | 2023.12.03 2023.12.04 |
S09W51 |
location: S08W47 |
||||||||
| S9210 | 2023.12.04 | S25W56 | |||||||||
| 13513 | 2023.12.04 2023.12.05 |
7 | 16 | 7 | N18W28 | 0090 | DAO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N18W29 area: 0160 |
| 13514 | 2023.12.05 2023.12.06 |
7 | 32 | 21 | N10W22 | 0060 | DAO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N05W25 area: 0190 |
| 13516 | 2023.12.08 2023.12.08 |
2 | 10 | 4 | S18E25 | 0040 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S17E23 |
| 13515 | 2023.12.08 2023.12.08 |
1 | 5 | 3 | S13E22 | 0010 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: S13E23 |
| 13517 | 2023.12.08 2023.12.11 |
2 | 13 | 9 | N15W17 | 0010 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N15W14 area: 0040 |
| S9222 | 2023.12.08 | 3 | 1 | N17W02 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S9224 | 2023.12.08 | S00W25 | |||||||||
| S9225 | 2023.12.09 | N05W24 | |||||||||
| S9226 | 2023.12.09 | N18W52 | |||||||||
| S9228 | 2023.12.10 | S15W49 | |||||||||
| S9229 | 2023.12.10 | N25W59 | |||||||||
| S9230 | 2023.12.11 | N18W59 |
 |
||||||||
| 13518 | 2023.12.12 2023.12.12 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N13E75 | 0030 | HSX | HAX |
 |
was AR S9231 area: 0080 location: N12E74 |
|
| S9232 | 2023.12.12 | 1 | S19E12 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S9233 | 2023.12.12 | 7 | 4 | S11E51 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S9234 | 2023.12.12 | 1 | 1 | S18E04 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 20 | 89 | 51 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 80 | 189 | 141 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 46 | 113 | 75 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 88 | 104 | 113 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.6 (+5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.5 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.9 (+2.4) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.2 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.7 (+5.5) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 144.4 | 113.3 (+6.6) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 111.3 | 117.8 (+3.5) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 123.3 | 121.0 (+3.2) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 97.6 | 122.7 (+1.7) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.4 | 123.9 (+1.2) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | (126.3 projected, +2.4) | 8.95 |
| 2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 159.1 | (127.1 projected, +0.8) | 8.15 |
| 2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | (128.2 projected, +1.1) | 7.19 |
| 2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 133.6 | (130.4 projected, +2.2) | 14.26 |
| 2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | (132.2 projected, +1.8) | 8.16 |
| 2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | (134.1 projected max SC25, +1.9) | 12.20 |
| 2023.12 | 136.9 (1) | 41.6 (2A) / 117.2 (2B) / 131.4 (2C) | (132.7 projected, -1.4) | (10.9) | |
| 2024.01 | (130.0 projected, -2.7) | ||||
| 2024.02 | (129.9 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.03 | (129.3 projected, -0.6) | ||||
| 2024.04 | (130.1 projected, +0.8) | ||||
| 2024.05 | (132.2 projected, +2.1) | ||||
| 2024.06 | (131.5 projected, -0.7) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Due to relatively low solar activity over the last couple of months, the possibility that solar cycle 25 has already peaked has increased significantly. Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July depends on solar activity in December and early January 2024. If the average solar flux is less than 150 during this period, the first peak of solar cycle 25 using 365 day smoothing will likely be sometime between June 2 and July 9. Should the average solar flux instead become 140 then the peak date will be in early June (June 4 for solar flux, June 6 for STAR 2K SN, and June 7 for all the other sunspot numbers in the graph above). We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
