Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 27, 2023 at 03:40 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (April 1, 2023)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (April 1, 2023) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (April 1, 2023) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (April 1, 2023) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (April 1, 2023) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 5, 2023) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on April 26 under the influence of effects from CH1142. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 503 and 690 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to minor storm levels. What was likely the arrival of the April 24 CME was recorded at SOHO at 17:39 UT with a sudden increase in solar wind speed from 547 to 598 km/sec. Solar wind speed increased further to almost 700 km/sec later in the day.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 136.5 - decreasing 3.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 139.52. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.8). Three hour interval K indices: 33233333 (planetary), 33223732 (Boulder), 45334355 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 292) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 186) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13284 [S09W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13285 [S17E02] gained a number of small spots and was quiet.
Region 13286 [S11E12] developed as new flux emerged in the trailing spot section.
Region 13287 [S26E38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13288 [S22E08] developed further and has a small magnetic delta in the central spot section. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 03:55, C1.2 @ 08:13 UT
Region 13289 [N19E65] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 13290 [N25W44] emerged on April 25 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 13291 [N09E13] emerged on April 25 and received its NOAA number the following day as more small spots formed.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8486 [N27W16] was quiet and stable.
S8489 [N17W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8492 [N17W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8493 [S21W15] was quiet and stable.
S8497 [S17E32] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8498 [N15E70] was quiet and stable.
New region S8500 [N12E20] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.5 14:23 N22E68 13289 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 25-26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
April 24: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant that began at 12:37 UT in SDO/AIA imagery. The CME was likely the source of solar wind changes observed at SOHO at 17:39 UT on April 26.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1142) was Earth facing on April 23-26. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1143) will rotate across the central meridian on April 27-28.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are likely on April 27-29 due to combined effects from CH1142 and CME effects. On April 30-May 1 quiet to unsettled conditions are likely due to effects from CH1143.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13283 2023.04.13
2023.04.16
      S23W84          

location: S21W79

13284 2023.04.17
2023.04.17
  3   S08W53 0003   BXO

location: S08W51

S8473 2023.04.19       S33W51          
S8475 2023.04.19       N26W46            
S8479 2023.04.20       N06W41            
13285 2023.04.20
2023.04.21
4 27 17 S17E05 0120 CSO CAO location: S17E02

area: 0220

S8482 2023.04.21       S23W40            
13286 2023.04.21
2023.04.24
2 12 7 S11E12 0010 AXX CRO area: 0030
S8485 2023.04.22       N16W24            
S8486 2023.04.22   7 1 N27W16 0012   BXO  
13287 2023.04.23
2023.04.24
  2   S25E35 0002   BXO location: S26E38
S8488 2023.04.23       S26E04            
S8489 2023.04.23   7 4 N17W01 0013   BXO  
13288 2023.04.24
2023.04.25
5 39 23 S22E10 0150 DSO EKI beta-delta

area: 0340

location: S22E08

S8492 2023.04.24   1 1 N17W12 0002   AXX  
S8493 2023.04.24   2   S21W15 0004   BXO    
13289 2023.04.25
2023.04.25
3 5 3 N20E58 0150 DSO DAC

location: N19E65

area: 0250

SWPC location is way off

13290 2023.04.25
2023.04.26
3 7 4 N24W45 0040 DRO DRO  
13291 2023.04.25
2023.04.26
4 25 13 N09E12 0020 BXO DRI area : 0080
S8497 2023.04.25   2   S17E32 0003   BXO  
S8498 2023.04.25   1 1 N15E70 0030   HAX  
S8499 2023.04.25       S27W11          
S8500 2023.04.26   2 2 N12E20 0006   AXX    
Total spot count: 21 142 76  
Sunspot number: 81 292 186  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 39 176 110  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 89 161 149  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (SC24 solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(SC24 peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.7 (+4.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.7 (+4.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.0 (+4.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.4 (+4.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 81.1 (+3.7) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 86.7 (+5.6) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 74.6 92.5 (+5.8) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.0 96.4 (+3.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.5 (99.0 projected, +2.6) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 80.5 (102.0 projected, +3.0) 9.33
2022.12 147.9 143.4 112.8 (106.8 projected, +4.8) 10.99
2023.01 182.4 176.6 143.6 (112.9 projected, +6.1) 8.73
2023.02 167.2 163.2 110.9 (117.9 projected, +5.0) 14.48
(current
SC25 peak)
2023.03 157.2 155.6 122.6 (121.0 projected, +3.1) 14.42
2023.04 144.7 (1)   77.7 (2A) / 89.7 (2B) / 137.8 (2C) (126.4 projected, +5.4) (12.6)
2023.05       (132.1 projected, +5.7)  
2023.06       (135.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.07       (134.7 projected, -0.5)  
2023.08       (135.7 projected, +1.0)  
2023.09       (139.2 projected, +3.5)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.