Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 25, 2023 at 06:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (April 1, 2023)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (April 1, 2023) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (April 1, 2023) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (April 1, 2023) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (April 1, 2023) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 5, 2023) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to very severe storm on April 24 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 417 and 763 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 133.9 - decreasing 24.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 139.62. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 67 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 67.0). Three hour interval K indices: 78754323 (planetary), 67663323 (Boulder), 77744313 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 199) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 133) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13282 [N10W78] rotated partly out of view and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 16:22, C1.5 @ 17:27 UT
Region 13283 [S21W53] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 13284 [S08W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13285 [S17E29] decayed in the trailing spot section and was mostly quiet.
New region 13286 [S10E40] rotated into view on April 21 and was numbered by SWPC 3 days later.
New region 13287 [S24E62] rotated into view on April 23 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8475 [N26W20] was quiet and stable.
S8485 [N16E02] was quiet and stable.
S8486 [N26E03] was quiet and stable.
S8489 [N17E25] was quiet and stable.
New region S8491 [S22E39] emerged before noon and developed fairly quickly. C flares are likely and further development will make M class flaring likely.
New region S8492 [N17E17] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8493 [S18E01] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.2 11:16   13282 GOES16  
C2.8 13:05   13282 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 22-23: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
April 24: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant that began at 12:37 UT in SDO/AIA imagery. The CME could reach Earth on April 27 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1142) will be Earth facing on April 23-26.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on April 25 due to lingering CME effects. Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected for April 26-28 due to effects from CH1142 and the April 24 CME.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13279 2023.04.10
2023.04.12
1     S19W92 0010 AXX     rotated out of view
13281 2023.04.12
2023.04.13
      S24W71          
13282 2023.04.13
2023.04.13
6 1 1 N12W83 0270 EKO HAX

area: 0080

location: N10W78

13283 2023.04.13
2023.04.16
1 8 2 S23W56 0010 AXX BXO

location: S21W53

13284 2023.04.17
2023.04.17
1 4 2 S08W25 0010 AXX CRO

 

S8473 2023.04.19       S33W34          
S8474 2023.04.19       N20W47            
S8475 2023.04.19   3   N26W20 0005   AXX  
S8479 2023.04.20       N06W15            
13285 2023.04.20
2023.04.21
7 20 10 S17E29 0220 DAO EKO area: 0330
S8481 2023.04.20       S12W52            
S8482 2023.04.21       S23W14          
13286 2023.04.21
2023.04.24
1 6 2 S11E40 0010 AXX BXO location: S10E40
S8485 2023.04.22   1   N16E02 0001   AXX  
S8486 2023.04.22   5 4 N26E03 0010   BXO  
13287 2023.04.23
2023.04.24
1 1 1 S25E63 0010 AXX HRX location: S24E62
S8488 2023.04.23       S26E30          
S8489 2023.04.23   4 2 N17E25 0010   BXO  
S8490 2023.04.23       N36W56          
S8491 2023.04.24   8 6 S22E39 0100   DAO    
S8492 2023.04.24   3 3 N17E17 0007   BXO    
S8493 2023.04.24   5   S18E01 0010   AXX    
Total spot count: 18 69 33  
Sunspot number: 88 199 133  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 33 95 59  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 97 109 106  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (SC24 solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(SC24 peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.7 (+4.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.7 (+4.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.0 (+4.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.4 (+4.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 81.1 (+3.7) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 86.7 (+5.6) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 74.6 92.5 (+5.8) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.0 96.4 (+3.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.5 (99.0 projected, +2.6) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 80.5 (102.0 projected, +3.0) 9.33
2022.12 147.9 143.4 112.8 (106.8 projected, +4.8) 10.99
2023.01 182.4 176.6 143.6 (112.9 projected, +6.1) 8.73
2023.02 167.2 163.2 110.9 (117.9 projected, +5.0) 14.48
(current
SC25 peak)
2023.03 157.2 155.6 122.6 (121.0 projected, +3.1) 14.42
2023.04 145.6 (1)   72.9 (2A) / 91.2 (2B) / 139.3 (2C) (126.4 projected, +5.4) (12.8)
2023.05       (132.1 projected, +5.7)  
2023.06       (135.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.07       (134.7 projected, -0.5)  
2023.08       (135.7 projected, +1.0)  
2023.09       (139.2 projected, +3.5)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.