The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on September 26. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 296 and 377 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A strong disturbance, probably related to a CME that was observed on September 23 (at the time it wasn't considered to have an Earth directed component), began to influence the geomagnetic field late in the day. The disturbance intensified quickly early on September 27. While solar speed currently is still less than 450 km/sec, solar wind density was very high early on September 27. The total field of the interplanetary magnetic field appears to have peaked at an unusually high level of 31 nT at 04:29 UT. Unsettled to major storming is possible for the remainder of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 135.1 - increasing 9.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 113.44). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.0). Three hour interval K indices: 20011013 (planetary), 11012213 (Boulder), 31011015 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 225) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 153) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13105 [S17W15] decayed slowly and
quietly. New flux and a few spots emerged to the south of the largest
trailing penumbra and in the central parts of the region.
Region 13107 [S24W01] decayed losing spots and
area early in the day. After noon new flux emerged in the central parts with
many new spots developing. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @
16:34, C1.8 @ 18:07, C1.4 @ 23:14 UT
Region 13108 [S13W51] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13109 [N09W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13110 [N16E30] decayed in the trailing and intermediate spot
sections.
C1 flares: C1.2 @ 14:46 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7887 [N20W17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7892 [N28E82] rotated into view with a single mature
spot.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C4.7/1F | 09:11 | S25E16 | 13107 | GOES16 | |
C2.1 | 12:51 | 13107 | GOES16 | ||
C2.9 | 15:45 | S23E06 | 13107 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13110 |
C3.6 | 21:14 | 13107 | GOES16 |
September 24-26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1103) is expected to become Earth facing September 27-30.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Unsettled to major storm conditions are possible on September 27 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is expected for September 28-29. Quiet to major storm conditions are likely on September 30 - October 2 due to effects from CH1103
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
13105 | 2022.09.19 2022.09.19 |
16 | 43 | 23 | S16W18 | 0150 | DAI | DAI |
location: S17W15 area: 0120 |
||
13106 | 2022.09.19 2022.09.20 |
S12W32 |
location: S11W31 |
||||||||
13108 | 2022.09.20 2022.09.21 |
7 | 16 | 5 | S13W47 | 0050 | CSO | CRO | location: S13W51 | ||
13107 | 2022.09.20 2022.09.21 |
33 | 62 | 33 | S25E01 | 0220 | ESI | EAI |
beta-gamma location: S24W01 |
||
13109 | 2022.09.21 2022.09.22 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N10W66 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
location: N09W69 area: 0007 |
||
13110 | 2022.09.22 2022.09.23 |
13 | 24 | 17 | N15E35 | 0320 | EHI | ESI |
location: N16E30 area: 0270 |
||
S7885 | 2022.09.23 | N12W49 | |||||||||
S7886 | 2022.09.23 | N30W24 | |||||||||
S7887 | 2022.09.23 | 6 | 3 | N20W17 | 0013 | BXO | |||||
S7888 | 2022.09.24 | N03W47 | |||||||||
S7889 | 2022.09.25 | N34W52 | |||||||||
S7890 | 2022.09.25 | S18W29 | |||||||||
S7891 | 2022.09.25 | S12W05 | |||||||||
S7892 | 2022.09.26 | 1 | 1 | N28E82 | 0170 | HAX | |||||
Total spot count: | 70 | 155 | 83 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 120 | 225 | 153 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 95 | 188 | 106 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 132 | 124 | 122 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (68.7 projected, +3.9) | 10.20 |
2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (73.9 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (80.3 projected, +6.4) | 7.48 |
2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (86.2 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (93.4 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (100.0 projected, +6.6) | 10.92 |
2022.09 | 135.0 (1) | 72.5 (2A) / 83.7 (2B) / 107.3 (2C) | (104.9 projected, +4.9) | (12.4) | |
2022.10 | (108.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
2022.11 | (110.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
2022.12 | (115.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
2023.01 | (121.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
2023.02 | (126.7 projected, +5.0) | ||||
2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.