Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 31, 2022 at 07:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 30 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1109. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 513 and 604 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 130.5 - decreasing 24.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 117.62). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.8). Three hour interval K indices: 23232232 (planetary), 23333322 (Boulder), 44333354 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 158) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 98) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13130 [S23W81] decayed slowly as it rotated to the southwest limb. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 14:51 UT
Region 13131 [N22W09] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 19:35 UT
Region 13133 [N25E09] decayed losing spots and area. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 01:50 UT
Region 13134 [N11W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13135 [N27E39] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly after noon. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 06:18, C1.1 @ 10:32 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7965 [N23W68] emerged with small spots early in the day, then decayed slowly after noon.
New region S7966 [S07E69] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S7967 [S30E40] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7968 [N3884] rotated partly into view with a small spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 28-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1109) rotated across the central meridian on October 26-28. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1110) rotated across the central meridian on October 28-30. Another recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1111) will become Earth facing on November 1.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are likely on October 31 - November 2, first due to effects from CH1109 and CH1110. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on November 3 becoming quiet to active on November 4-5 due to effects from CH1111.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13130 2022.10.20
2022.10.23
3 3 2 S24W84 0040 DAO AXX

location: S23W81

S7946 2022.10.21       S27W48            
S7950 2022.10.23       N18W57            
13131 2022.10.23
2022.10.24
5 11 4 N23W09 0160 CSO DHO area: 0270

location: N23W09

S7952 2022.10.23       S14W57            
13134 2022.10.24
2022.10.28
  2 1 N12W15 0005   BXO  
13133 2022.10.24
2022.10.25
11 27 12 N26E07 0030 BXO BXI

location: N25E09

S7957 2022.10.27       S18W30            
13135 2022.10.27
2022.10.28
9 14 5 N27E39 0160 EAO EAO area: 0260
S7959 2022.10.27       N27E08            
S7960 2022.10.28       S14E09            
S7961 2022.10.28       N12W24            
S7962 2022.10.29       S07W17          
S7963 2022.10.29       S03E56          
S7964 2022.10.29    

 

  N11W22          
S7965 2022.10.30   4 2 N23W68 0015   CRO    
S7966 2022.10.30   2   S07E69 0002   AXX    
S7967 2022.10.30   4 2 S30E40 0008   BXO    
S7968 2022.10.30   1   N38E84 0020   HRX    
Total spot count: 28 68 28  
Sunspot number: 68 158 98  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 43 89 46  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 75 87 78  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.18
2022.10 133.7 (1)   83.5 (2A) / 86.2 (2B) / 104.7 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (11.4)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.