Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 13, 2022 at 10:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 355 and 430 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 140.6 - increasing 0.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 116.18). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 10012122 (planetary), 10012211 (Boulder), 40012165 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 209) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 126) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13116 [N28W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13118 [N08W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13119 [N28W28] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22W69] decayed further and could still produce M class flares. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 02:37 UT
S7912 [N17W37] was quiet and stable.
S7917 [S15W15] was quiet and stable.
S7918 [S28E49] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7919 [N17W73] decayed slowly and quietly. Then new flux emerged early on October 13.
S7920 [N22E66] developed slowly and quietly.
S7921 [S22E57] was quiet and stable.
New region S7923 [N15E32] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7924 [S20E19] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7925 [S15W15] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.7 09:30   S7901 GOES16 LDE
C8.8 14:18 N25W52 S7901 GOES16 weak type II radio sweep, CME
C4.7 16:29 N25W53 S7901 GOES16  
M1.5 00:19 on Oct.13 (flare began at 23:56)   S7901 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No obvious coronal holes are currently in potentially geoeffective positions.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on October 13-15.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13112 2022.09.30
2022.09.30
9     N25W65 0280 EKI      

location: N19W79

Keeping the original SWPC number for data integrity

SWPC has split this off as AR 13120

see AR S7901

S7901 2022.09.30   15 7 N22W69 0480   EAO beta-gamma

SWPC has this as AR 13112

13116 2022.10.01
2022.10.03
2 3 2 N30W54 0120 CAO CSO

location: N28W67

area: 0160

13118 2022.10.05
2022.10.06
1 5 3 N09W19 0010 AXX BXO

location: N08W18

S7912 2022.10.05   5 1 N17W37 0008   BXO  
13119 2022.10.06
2022.10.07
10 22 15 N29W30 0170 DAI DAI

location: N28W28

S7915 2022.10.07       N31W13            
13120 2022.10.07       N18W81           see AR 13112
S7916 2022.10.09       N37E12            
S7917 2022.10.09   4   S15W15 0007   BXO  
S7918 2022.10.10   2 1 S28E49 0005   AXX  
S7919 2022.10.11   2   N17W73 0003   BXO  
S7920 2022.10.11   6 3 N22E66 0025   CRO  
S7921 2022.10.11   8 3 S22E57 0015   BXO  
S7922 2022.10.11       S14E55          
S7923 2022.10.12   1 1 N15E32 0003   AXX    
S7924 2022.10.12   2   S20E19 0003   BXO    
S7925 2022.10.12   4   S27W03 0005   BXO    
Total spot count: 22 79 36  
Sunspot number: 62 209 126  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 42 97 54  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 68 115 101  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.18
2022.10 154.8 (1)   46.9 (2A) / 121.2 (2B) / 116.5 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (13.0)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.