Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 25, 2022 at 08:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 24 with a low speed stream from CH1114 becoming the main solar wind source by the end of the day. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 293 and 397 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 109.7 - decreasing 19.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 120.41). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.5). Three hour interval K indices: 12211013 (planetary), 12212222 (Boulder), 10100025 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 171) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 97) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13147 [S11W37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13149 [N23W31] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13151 [S15W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13152 [N28E49] developed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8015 [S27W31] was quiet and stable
New region S8030 [|S01E34] emerged before noon, then decayed slowly.
New region S8031 [N17E13] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8032 [S20W17] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8033 [S08E64] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8034 [S11W15] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 23-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 22: A CME associated with the C7 flare in AR 13151 could reach Earth on November 25-26 and cause unsettled and active intervals.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1114) rotated across the central meridian on November 20-21. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1115) was Earth facing on November 23-24, while a recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1116) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on November 25-26.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on November 25 due to a high speed stream from CH1114, isolated active intervals are possible. Unsettled and active intervals are possible on November 25-26 should the November 22 CME reach Earth. A high speed stream from CH1115 could cause quiet to active conditions on November 26-27.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13148 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
      S33W47         location: S32W43
13147 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
3 17 9 S12W37 0220 HAX CSO location: S11W37

area: 0180

13149 2022.11.16
2022.11.17
8 23 10 N21W30 0120 DAO CAO location: N23W31
S8012 2022.11.17       S22W54            
S8014 2022.11.17       S07W47            
S8015 2022.11.17   1   S27W31 0001   AXX  
S8020 2022.11.19       N20W56            
S8021 2022.11.19       N32W37            
S8024 2022.11.20       N17W39            
13151 2022.11.21
2022.11.21
7 11 9 S16W21 0060 DAO DAI

location: S15W20

13152 2022.11.22
2022.11.23
3 14 7 N26E45 0010 BXO DRI location: N28E49

area: 0050

S8027 2022.11.22       S11W09            
S8028 2022.11.23       N06W53          
S8029 2022.11.23       N35W06          
S8030 2022.11.24   1 1 S01E34 0003   AXX  
S8031 2022.11.24   1 1 N17E13 0003   AXX    
S8032 2022.11.24   1   S20W17 0002   AXX    
S8033 2022.11.24   1   S08E64 0002   AXX    
S8034 2022.11.24   1   S11W15 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 21 71 37  
Sunspot number: 61 171 97  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 36 89 55  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 67 94 78  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 127.2 (1)   56.4 (2A) / 70.5 (2B) / 94.2 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (7.1)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.