The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 27 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1070. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 130 - increasing 31.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 89.28). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.3). Three hour interval K indices: 22233443 (planetary), 22234443 (Boulder), 33132545 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 290) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 171) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12974 [S19E00] was quiet and stable.
Region 12975 [N13E04] merged with AR S7451 and more flux emerged
creating strong polarity intermixing and magnetic deltas. The region could
produce a major flare. On March 28 the region produced an M4.0 proton flare
at 11:28 and an M1.0 flare at 17:40 UT. The M4 flare was associated with an
EIT wave and a fast full halo CME. C1 flares: C1.0 at 18:30, C1.1 at 22:40,
C1.1 @ 23:20 UT.
Region 12976 [N15E20] was quiet and stable. The region has a magnetic
delta at the northern edge of the main penumbra. An M class flare is
possible.
New region 12977 [N22W10] emerged on March 26 and was numbered the
next day by SWPC.
New region 12978 [S17E78] rotated into view and has M class flare
potential. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 15:18, C1.2 @ 16:18 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7449 [S20E24] developed as new flux emerged in
the southern part of the region.
New region S7453 [S27W09] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7455 [S24W45] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7456 [N08W12] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7457 [N25E42] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7458 [S24E80] rotated into view
just south of AR 12978. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 08:36, C1.1 @ 10:15 UT
New region S7459 [N40E36] emerged with a faint spot at a high
latitude.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C2.4 | 11:09 | 12978 | GOES16 | ||
C4.1 | 00:10 (on March 28, flare began at 23:56) | 12978 | GOES16 |
March 26-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
March 28: A full halo CME was observed after the M4 event in AR
12975. The CME could reach Earth on March 30 and cause unsettled to severe
storm conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1070) was in an Earth facing position on March 23-25. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1071) will likely rotate across the central meridian on March 30.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on March 28 as a high speed stream from CH1070 is the dominant solar wind source. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on March 29. Quiet to major storm conditions are possible on March 30-31 if the March 28 CME impacts Earth, isolated severe storm intervals are not unlikely.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
12972 | 2022.03.19 2022.03.19 |
S29W88 | location: S27W84 | ||||||||
12973 | 2022.03.19 2022.03.20 |
N19W48 | |||||||||
S7438 | 2022.03.19 | N17W21 | |||||||||
12974 | 2022.03.21 2022.03.22 |
1 | 18 | 5 | S19W02 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
location: S19E00 area: 0030 |
||
S7442 | 2022.03.21 | N19W51 | |||||||||
S7443 | 2022.03.21 | S24W07 | |||||||||
12975 | 2022.03.22 2022.03.23 |
22 | 55 | 27 | N12E05 | 0050 | CSI | DAC |
beta-gamma-delta location: N13E04 area: 0300 |
||
12976 | 2022.03.22 2022.03.24 |
15 | 44 | 20 | N16E22 | 0500 | EHO | EKC |
beta-delta location: N15E20 |
||
S7448 | 2022.03.25 | N18W08 | |||||||||
S7449 | 2022.03.25 | 11 | 3 | S20E24 | 0020 | BXO | |||||
S7450 | 2022.03.25 | S18W49 | |||||||||
S7451 | 2022.03.26 | merged with AR 12975 | |||||||||
12977 | 2022.03.26 2022.03.27 |
8 | 16 | 8 | N21W11 | 0040 | DRO | DRI | |||
S7453 | 2022.03.27 | 1 | 1 | S27W09 | 0003 | AXX | |||||
12978 | 2022.03.27 2022.03.27 |
1 | 8 | 3 | S15E75 | 0180 | HSX | EHO |
was AR S7454 area: 0580 |
||
S7455 | 2022.03.27 | 4 | 1 | S24W45 | 0010 | CRO | |||||
S7456 | 2022.03.27 | 4 | 2 | N08W12 | 0010 | CRO | |||||
S7457 | 2022.03.27 | 4 | N25E42 | 0005 | BXO | ||||||
S7458 | 2022.03.27 | 4 | 1 | S24E80 | 0010 | BXO | |||||
S7459 | 2022.03.27 | 1 | N40E36 | 0001 | AXX | ||||||
Total spot count: | 47 | 170 | 71 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 97 | 290 | 171 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 70 | 207 | 108 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 107 | 160 | 137 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.5 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.7 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+3.9) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | (39.9 projected, +4.6) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (43.6 projected, +3.7) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.0 | (48.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (54.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (57.7 projected, +3.7) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (62.4 projected, +4.7) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 112.0 (1) | 56.0 (2A) / 64.3 (2B) / 82.6 (2C) | (67.9 projected, +5.5) | (9.9) | |
2022.04 | (73.0 projected, +5.1) | ||||
2022.05 | (79.4 projected, +6.4) | ||||
2022.06 | (85.3 projected, +5.9) | ||||
2022.07 | (92.6 projected, +7.3) | ||||
2022.08 | (99.2 projected, +6.6) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.