Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 5, 2022 at 12:20 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 4 due to effects from CH1067. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 113.1 - decreasing 12.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 87.03). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.8). Three hour interval K indices: 32221223 (planetary), 32222322 (Boulder), 53112355 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 201) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 144) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12955 [N15W76] was quiet and stable.
Region 12957 [S13W14] developed slowly and was quiet. This is the original NOAA AR number. On March 3 SWPC split what they had previously considered as one region and assigned 12961 to this region. To preserve data consistency and integrity the original numbering is kept.
Region 12958 [N18W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12959 [S19E15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12960 [S20E58] developed further and could produce an M class flare. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 00:45, C1.4 @ 03:06, C1.1 @ 06:34 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7393 [S16W02] gained spots and has minor M class flare potential.
S7398 [S24W00] was quiet and stable.
New region S7403 [N11E16] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 2-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1067) was in an Earth facing position on March 1-4.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to occasionally fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 5-7 due to effects from CH1067.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12954 2022.02.20
2022.02.20
1     N17W86 0050 HSX     rotated out of view
12955 2022.02.20
2022.02.21
1 1 1 N17W74 0070 HSX HSX location: N15W76
12956 2022.02.25
2022.02.27
      N25W51        

location: N28W45

12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
13 23 11 S14W04 0230 DAO DRI location: S13W14

area: 0080

Originally AR 12957. SWPC has renumbered the region as AR 12961

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
  6 3 N17W03 0015   BXO

 

S7392 2022.02.27       N19W49            
S7393 2022.02.27   48 29 S16W02 0320   DAI SWPC has this as AR 12957
12961 2022.03.03 7     S13W15 0050 CAO       this is originally AR 12957
S7395 2022.02.28       S12W23            
S7396 2022.03.01       S20W56            
S7397 2022.03.01       N05W31           likely SC24 group
S7398 2022.03.01   14 2 S24W00 0020   BXO  
12959 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
  2 1 S19E09 0007   AXX

location: S19E15

12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
5 25 15 S21E57 0430 DHO EHI area: 0510

location: S20E58

S7401 2022.03.02       S31W50            
S7402 2022.03.03       S25E16          
S7403 2022.03.04   2 2 N11E16 0008   CRO    
Total spot count: 27 121 64  
Sunspot number: 77 201 144  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 57 147 62  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 85 111 115  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 108.2 (1)   9.6 (2A) / 74.3 (2B) / 78.7 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (6.4)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.