Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 22, 2022 at 08:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (June 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (June 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (June 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (June 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (June 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 21 under the influence of a high speed stream. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 138.8 - increasing 2.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 102.31). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1). Three hour interval K indices: 22132113 (planetary), 33443222 (Boulder), 43232235 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 216) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 152) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13030 [N18W83] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:44, C1.4 @ 07:08, C1.0 @ 11:04, C1.1 @ 15:10 UT
Region 13032 [N20W73] was quiet and stable.
Region 13033 [N22W45] was quiet and stable.
Region 13034 [N01W38] was quiet and stable. This is likely an SC24 group.
Region 13035 [S18W36] decayed early in the day, then new flux emerged with an increase in area and spot count.
Region 13038 [N16W18] produced several C flares and has major flare potential. Two small magnetic deltas were observed near the center of the spot group. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 00:53, C1.4 @ 01:08, C1.8 @ 03:43, C1.3 @ 04:05, C1.3 @ 04:42, C1.9 @ 05:40, C1.9 @ 07:21, C1.5 @ 08:45, C1.8 @ 09:52, C1.2 @ 10:15 UT.
New region 13040 [S12E72] rotated into view on June 20 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7646 [N27E14] was quiet and stable.
S7651 [N27E47] developed slightly and was quiet.
S7653 [S25E50] was quiet and stable.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.5 02:52 SW limb 13031 GOES16 LDE
C2.1 06:19   13038 GOES16  
C5.6 16:21 behind SW limb 13031 GOES16 LDE
C2.4 17:42 behind SW limb 13031 GOES16  
C2.0 19:04 behind SW limb 13031 GOES16  
C3.1 19:39   13030 GOES16  
C2.8 20:45   13038 GOES16  
C2.2 22:16     GOES16  
C2.8 23:42     GOES16 LDE

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 19-21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1083) will be in an Earth facing position on June 21-22, but may be too far to the north to cause a disturbance. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1084) will likely rotate across the central meridian on June 22-23 and could be too far too the south for any geomagnetic effects. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1085) will be Earth facing on June 22.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to occasionally unsettled conditions are likely on June 22-24 becoming quiet to active on June 25 due to effects from CH1085.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13030 2022.06.09
2022.06.10
4 5 3 N18W84 0220 DAI DAO

area: 0140

13032 2022.06.09
2022.06.12
1 1 1 N20W74 0100 HSX HSX area: 0120
13033 2022.06.11
2022.06.12
  8   N16W56 0012   BXO location: N22W45
13034 2022.06.12
2022.06.13
1 2 1 S00W40 0100 HSX CSO

location: N01W38

likely SC24 group

13035 2022.06.12
2022.06.13
4 24 12 S18W40 0010 BXO CRI area: 0060
S7642 2022.06.14       N12W06          
13038 2022.06.15
2022.06.16
33 66 39 N14W21 0430 EKC EKC

beta-gamma-delta

area: 0780

location: N16W18

S7646 2022.06.15   4 1 N27E14 0010   BXO  
S7647 2022.06.16       S13W58            
S7649 2022.06.18       N21W21            
S7650 2022.06.19       N06W02            
S7651 2022.06.20   1 1 N27E47 0006   AXX  
S7652 2022.06.20       S09E03          
S7653 2022.06.20   4 3 S25E50 0010   BXO  
13040 2022.06.20
2022.06.21
1 1 1 S13E68 0060 HSX HSX area: 0160

location: S12E72

Total spot count: 44 116 62  
Sunspot number: 104 216 152  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 74 149 95  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 114 119 122  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 (55.7 projected, +5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.4 projected, +4.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (66.9 projected, +6.5) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (72.4 projected, +5.5) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (77.6 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (84.1 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 120.1 (1)   56.1 (2A) / 80.1 (2B) / 97.3 (2C) (89.9 projected, +5.8) (8.3)
2022.07       (97.2 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (103.8 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (108.8 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (112.0 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (114.8 projected, +2.8)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.