The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 30 under the influence of effects from CH1057. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 129.6 - increasing 45.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 83.91). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.4). Three hour interval K indices: 33323113 (planetary), 23322212 (Boulder), 42222225 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 255) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 153) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12934 [S24W61] was quiet and stable.
Region 12935 [N27W72] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12936 [N17W08] has a minor magnetic delta in the southwestern
part of the largest trailing penumbra. Otherwise some decay was observed in
the central parts. The region still has the potential to produce major
flares. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 06:57, C1.7 @ 15:44, C1.6 @ 23:30 UT.
Region 12937 [S21W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12938 [N18E15] was quiet and stable.
New region 12939 [S15E75] rotated partly into view on January 29 and
was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region has M class flaring potential.
C1 flares: C1.9 @ 05:09 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7323 [S26E27] gained a few spots and was
quiet.
New region S7325 [N18E73] rotated partly into view early in the day.
The region could have the potential for M flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 12:58,
C1.3 @ 21:20, C1.2 @ 21:38, C1.7 @ 22:04, C1.1 @ 22:32 UT.
New region S7326 [N29W28] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7327 [N17E63] emerged with tiny
spots ahead of AR S7325.
New region S7328 [S26E72] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S7329 [S17E24] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7330 [S06E25] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C4.9 | 01:26 | 12939 | GOES16 | undetected by SWPC | |
C6.7 | 07:19 | 12940 (S7325) | GOES16 | ||
C2.2 | 09:53 | 12940 (S7325) | GOES16 | ||
C2.7 | 20:13 | 12940 (S7325) | GOES16 |
January 28, 30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 29: The long duration M1.1 event in AR 12936 late in the day
was associated with an asymmetrical halo CME. The fastest parts of the CME
was observed off the northeast limb. The CME could reach Earth on February 1
or 2.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 31-February 1. Sometime during the latter half of February 1 or early on February 2 the CME observed late on January 29 is expected to reach Earth causing unsettled to minor storm conditions.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
12934 | 2022.01.19 2022.01.20 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S26W62 | 0070 | HSX | HSX |
area: 0110 location: S24W61 |
||
12937 | 2022.01.20 2022.01.25 |
3 | 1 | S20W53 | 0005 | AXX | location: S21W49 | ||||
12936 | 2022.01.23 2022.01.25 |
23 | 64 | 34 | N17W09 | 0720 | EHC | EKC |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0850 |
||
12935 | 2022.01.24 2022.01.24 |
2 | 4 | 2 | N27W72 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
area: 0010 |
||
12938 | 2022.01.25 2022.01.26 |
14 | 6 | N18E14 | 0030 | BXO | |||||
S7319 | 2022.01.26 | N16W54 | |||||||||
S7320 | 2022.01.28 | N24W09 | |||||||||
S7321 | 2022.01.29 | N35W24 | |||||||||
S7322 | 2022.01.29 | S32W16 | |||||||||
S7323 | 2022.01.29 | 7 | 5 | S26E27 | 0020 | BXO | |||||
12939 | 2022.01.29 2022.01.30 |
4 | 12 | 7 | S15E70 | 0120 | CSO | EKO |
location: S15E75 area: 0400 |
||
S7325 12940 |
2022.01.30 2022.01.30 |
11 | 6 | N18E73 | 0130 | DAO | |||||
S7326 | 2022.01.30 | 1 | N29W28 | 0002 | AXX | ||||||
S7327 | 2022.01.30 | 2 | 1 | N17E63 | 0004 | BXO | |||||
S7328 | 2022.01.30 | 4 | S26E72 | 0006 | BXO | ||||||
S7329 | 2022.01.30 | 1 | S17E24 | 0002 | AXX | ||||||
S7330 | 2022.01.30 | 1 | S06E25 | 0001 | AXX |
|
|||||
Total spot count: | 30 | 125 | 63 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 70 | 255 | 153 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 50 | 155 | 93 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 77 | 140 | 122 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.9 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (31.8 projected, +4.0) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (36.5 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (42.2 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.6 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.1 | (51.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.0 (1) | 53.6 (2A) / 55.4 (2B) / 64.2 (2C) | (60.6 projected, +3.6) | (8.9) | |
2022.02 | (65.4 projected, +4.8) | ||||
2022.03 | (70.8 projected, +5.4) | ||||
2022.04 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | ||||
2022.05 | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | ||||
2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.