The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 5 under the influence of a high speed stream associated with CH1058. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.9 - increasing 23.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 84.78). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.5). Three hour interval K indices: 33233332 (planetary), 23232322 (Boulder), 43332333 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 214) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 136) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12939 [S16W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12940 [N17W04] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flare: C1.1 @
02:58 UT.
Region 12941 [N24E51] appeared to be slowly decaying most of the day and produced a
few C flares. New flux emerged just east of the leader spot late in the day
and the C flares were all from that area where small opposite polarity spots
are quite close. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 19:58, C1.0 @ 22:13, C1.1 @ 23:06, C1.3 @
23:48 UT.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7328 [S25W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7332 [N15W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7338 [S22E13] was quiet and stable.
S7339 [N13E20] was quiet and stable.
New region S7340 [S12W48] emerged with several spots.
New region S7341 [S06W25] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7342 [N00E07] emerged with tiny spots. This is probably
an SC24 group.
AR 12936 rotated out of view and produced a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 05:57, C1.3 @ 08:05, C1.3 @ 18:27 UT.
Minor update posted at 16:45: A long duration C3.1 event peaked at 13:41 UT. It's source was in AR 12939 where the beginnings of the event were observed just after 09h UT. Only one LASCO image covering the hour after the eruption is available as I write this, but it does show a CME off the south pole. Further imagery is needed to confirm that the CME is Earth directed. An EIT wave was observed over a large part of the visible disk during the event.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 17:10 | 12936 | GOES16 |
February 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 6: A faint full halo CME was observed
after a C3.1 long duration event near noon in AR 12939. The region became
unstable as a positive polarity spot emerged inside the leading negative
polarity spot section.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1058) rotated across the central meridian on February 1-2. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1059) was Earth facing on February 3-4.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on February 6-8 due to effects from CH1058 and CH1059.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12936 | 2022.01.23 2022.01.25 |
6 | N17W88 | 0450 | EKO |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| 12938 | 2022.01.25 2022.01.26 |
4 | N16W71 | 0030 | CRO |
location: N21W63 spotless SWPC has failed to observe AR S7332 and uses data from that region |
|||||
| S7323 | 2022.01.29 | S26W54 | |||||||||
| 12939 | 2022.01.29 2022.01.30 |
4 | 14 | 6 | S17W03 | 0200 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S16W05 |
| 12940 | 2022.01.30 2022.01.30 |
18 | 49 | 26 | N17W06 | 0200 | DAO | EAI |
 |
 |
location: N17W04 area: 0250 |
| S7327 | 2022.01.30 | N18WW18 |
 |
||||||||
| S7328 | 2022.01.30 | 4 | 1 | S25W08 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7329 | 2022.01.30 | S17W54 | |||||||||
| S7330 | 2022.01.30 | S06W53 | |||||||||
| S7331 | 2022.01.31 | N27W33 | |||||||||
| S7332 | 2022.01.31 | 7 | 4 | N15W69 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7333 | 2022.02.01 | S26W55 | |||||||||
| 12941 | 2022.02.02 2022.02.03 |
9 | 20 | 12 | N24E48 | 0300 | EHO | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N24E51 |
| S7335 | 2022.02.02 | S12W44 | |||||||||
| S7336 | 2022.02.02 | S22W05 | reversed polarities | ||||||||
| S7338 | 2022.02.04 | 4 | 2 | S22E13 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7339 | 2022.02.04 | 4 | 2 | N13E20 | 0009 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7340 | 2022.02.05 | 8 | 3 | S12W48 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S7341 | 2022.02.05 | 1 | S06W25 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7342 | 2022.02.05 | 3 | N00E07 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
probably SC24 | ||||
| Total spot count: | 41 | 114 | 56 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 91 | 214 | 136 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 74 | 135 | 77 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 100 | 118 | 109 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.1 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.5 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.7 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | (36.2 projected, +4.8) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | (42.3 projected, +6.1) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.7 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.0 | (51.3 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.2 projected, +5.9) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.8 projected, +3.6) | 8.9 |
| 2022.02 | 127.8 (1) | 15.1 (2A) / 84.4 (2B) / 79.1 (2C) | (65.5 projected, +4.7) | (17.5) | |
| 2022.03 | (71.0 projected, +5.5) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (76.1 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.6 projected, +6.5) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.4 projected, +5.9) | ||||
| 2022.07 | (95.7 projected, +7.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
