The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on August 27. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 297 and 445 km/sec, increasing slowly most of the day, likely under the influence of a high speed stream associated with CH1096 after 10:30 UT. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 127.5 - increasing 33.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 109.53). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.3). Three hour interval K indices: 21134333 (planetary), 22143333 (Boulder), 31034334 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 213) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 170) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13085 [N30W62] decayed slowly and
was mostly quiet.
Region 13086 [S23W11] decayed slowly losing mature penumbra.
Region 13087 [S14E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13088 [S28W72] is still a complex group with several weak magnetic
delta structures. A major proton flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 20:14,
C1.9 @ 23:18, C1.7 @ 23:42, C1.8 @ 23:51 UT
Region 13089 [S23E30] gained area and lost some magnetic complexity.
There is minor polarity intermixing, however, the region was mostly quiet on
August 27, in sharp contrast to the previous day.
Region 13090 [N17E37] developed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7811 [N14W12] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7817 [S20W01] emerged early in the day with several
spots, then decayed slowly after noon.
New region S7818 [N11E05] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7819 [N09E03] emerged with tiny spots close to AR S7818.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.4 | 00:52 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 01:05 | S19W58 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C4.7 | 01:34 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.8 | 02:40 | S19W58 | 13088 | GOES16 | LDE, partial halo CME, weak type II and IV radio sweeps |
| M1.3 | 04:12 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.6 | 04:58 | 13085 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.8 | 05:13 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.4 | 05:40 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.4 | 06:10 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.8 | 07:02 | S30W66 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C5.6 | 07:51 | S29W64 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C3.1 | 09:01 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 09:16 | S32W73 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 11:04 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 11:38 | S28W66 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C4.4 | 12:06 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 12:30 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.8 | 12:48 | S29W66 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C9.6 | 13:13 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.2/1N | 14:59 | S28W70 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| M1.1 | 15:25 | S28W71 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| M1.8 | 15:58 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 16:49 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 17:22 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 17:53 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 18:07 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 18:36 | 13086 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 19:44 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 20:45 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 21:15 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 21:39 | 13088 | GOES16 |
August 25: A partial halo CME was observed after 05 UT in LASCO C3
imagery. The distribution of material indicates a northern hemisphere
source, however, with the lack of obvious CMEs on the frontside, the source
was likely backsided.
August 26: A partial halo CME was observed after the M3.6 LDE in AR
13088. The event peaked at 13:16 UT and the CME core was headed towards the
west southwest. Earth could see an impact on August 28-29.
August 27: A partial halo CME was observed after the M4.8 LDE in AR
13088 early in the day. Earth could see an impact on August 29.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1096) rotated across the central meridian on August 25-27.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on August 28-30 due to effects from CH1096 and CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13085 | 2022.08.20 2022.08.21 |
2 | 4 | 3 | N30W62 | 0100 | CSO | EAO |
 |
 |
|
| 13086 | 2022.08.21 2022.08.23 |
8 | 24 | 13 | S22W12 | 0070 | CAI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S23W11 |
| S7803 | 2022.08.21 | N20W12 |
 |
||||||||
| S7804 | 2022.08.21 | N28W29 | |||||||||
| S7806 | 2022.08.22 | N08W27 | |||||||||
| 13087 | 2022.08.22 2022.08.23 |
1 | 2 | 2 | S14E13 | 0020 | HRX | HRX |
 |
 |
|
| 13090 | 2022.08.23 2022.08.25 |
5 | 3 | N16E34 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N17E37 | ||
| 13088 | 2022.08.24 2022.08.25 |
9 | 24 | 15 | S27W73 | 0650 | DKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S28W72 |
| 13089 | 2022.08.24 | 14 | 39 | 26 | S22E31 | 0280 | DKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S22E43 area: 0410 |
| S7811 | 2022.08.25 | 3 | 1 | N14W12 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7813 | 2022.08.25 | N03W25 | |||||||||
| S7814 | 2022.08.25 | N34W06 | |||||||||
| S7815 | 2022.08.26 | S22W05 |
 |
||||||||
| S7816 | 2022.08.26 | S13E63 |
 |
||||||||
| S7817 | 2022.08.27 | 7 | 3 | S20W01 | 0013 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7818 | 2022.08.27 | 3 | 2 | N11E05 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7819 | 2022.08.27 | 2 | 2 | N09E03 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 34 | 113 | 70 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 84 | 213 | 170 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 67 | 144 | 101 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 92 | 117 | 136 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 112.5 (1) | 61.2 (2A) / 70.2 (2B) / 93.3 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (11.0) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
