The geomagnetic field was very quiet on August 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 340 and 392 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. A high speed stream from CH1094 arrived near 02h UT on August 17 at DSCOVR.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 128.5 - decreasing 3.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.56). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.3). Three hour interval K indices: 11111001 (planetary), 12122312 (Boulder), 11112103 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 301) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 192) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13074 [S17W77] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13076 [N15W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13078 [S23W18] developed slowly and is still a complex region
with several magnetic delta structures. Another major flare is possible. C1
flares: C1.1 @ 04:06, C1.4 @ 06:57, C1.6 @ 07:40, C1.5 @ 08:44, C1.4 @
08:53, C1.4 @ 09:14, C1.3 @ 09:32, C1.9 @ 15:07, C1.7 @ 20:48, C1.2 @ 22:52
UT
Region 13079 [S10W65] decayed significantly losing all penumbra on
the leader spots and nearly all mature penumbra on the trailing spots. C1
flares: C1.3 @ 02:42, C1.4 @ 03:40 UT
Region 13081 [N11E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13082 [N27E49] emerged on August 15 and continued to
develop on August 16 when it was numbered by SWPC.
New region 13083 [S24W29] emerged on August 15 and received its NOAA
number the following day as slow development continued.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S11W03] was quiet and stable.
S7776 [N20W52] decayed further and was quiet.
S7778 [S09E44] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7782 [N18W78] developed further and was quiet. Note that SWPC / USAF
for some reason chose to relocate AR 13075 to this new group.
New region S7786 [S19E73] rotated into view with mature spots.
New region S7787 [N35E10] emerged with several spots.
New region S7788 [S16E73] emerged to the north of AR S7786.
New region S7789 [N13W10] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C8.4 | 00:13 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 01:21 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 01:39 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 04:56 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 05:18 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.0 | 07:58 | 13078 | GOES16 | CME? | |
| C6.4/1N | 13:31 | S22W12 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 13:59 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 14:05 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.8 | 21:21 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 23:13 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 23:38 | 13082 | GOES16 | wrongly attributed to AR 13078 by SWPC |
August 14: A partial halo CME was observed after a long duration C2
event, mainly in AR S7767 but also extending northwards to AR S7776, peaking
just after noon. The CME could reach Earth on August 17.
August 15: A partial halo CME was observed after the long duration C3
event in AR 13074 early in the day.
August 16: No well defined CME was observed after the M5 major flare
in AR 13078, however, there is chance CME effects will reach Earth on August
18 or 19.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) rotated across the central meridian on August 14-17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected for August 17-20 due to effects from CH1094 and the August 14 and 15 CMEs. Major storm intervals are possible.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13074 | 2022.08.04 2022.08.05 |
2 | 3 | 2 | S17W76 | 0030 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S17W76 area: 0060 |
| 13075 | 2022.08.05 2022.08.07 |
1 | N16W78 |
 |
location: N22W55 spotless SWPC has relocated the region to the position of AR S7782 |
||||||
| 13076 | 2022.08.06 2022.08.07 |
2 | 9 | 2 | N15W49 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N15W48 |
| 13078 | 2022.08.09 2022.08.10 |
10 | 37 | 20 | S23W18 | 0270 | DAO | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0450 |
| S7766 | 2022.08.10 | 6 | S11W03 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S7767 | 2022.08.11 | N17W47 |
 |
reversed polarities | |||||||
| 13081 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.13 |
10 | 28 | 14 | N12E04 | 0120 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N11E03 area: 0210 |
| 13079 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.12 |
7 | 11 | 6 | S11W66 | 0080 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
|
| S7771 | 2022.08.11 | S27W25 | |||||||||
| S7773 | 2022.08.12 | N23W38 | |||||||||
| S7774 | 2022.08.13 | S12W50 | |||||||||
| S7775 | 2022.08.13 | N36W22 | |||||||||
| S7776 | 2022.08.14 | 3 | 1 | N20W52 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7777 | 2022.08.14 | N26W26 | |||||||||
| S7778 | 2022.08.14 | 6 | 2 | S09E44 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7779 | 2022.08.14 | N11W13 | |||||||||
| S7781 | 2022.08.15 | N23E06 |
 |
||||||||
| S7782 | 2022.08.15 | 7 | 2 | N18W78 | 0050 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13083 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
4 | 8 | 5 | S24W29 | 0020 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| 13082 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
3 | 15 | 10 | N27E49 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| S7785 | 2022.08.15 | N16E25 |
 |
||||||||
| S7786 | 2022.08.16 | 2 | 1 | S19E73 | 0040 | HAX |
 |
||||
| S7787 | 2022.08.16 | 7 | 5 | N35E10 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7788 | 2022.08.16 | 1 | S16E73 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7789 | 2022.08.16 | 8 | N13W10 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 39 | 151 | 70 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 119 | 301 | 190 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 62 | 192 | 111 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 132 | 166 | 152 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 113.7 (1) | 36.6 (2A) / 71.0 (2B) / 93.9 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (10.0) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
