|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 3, 2021)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2021)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2021)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020)||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]|
|Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2021)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2021)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021)||Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)|
|Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing||Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing|
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on October 12 due to CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded active to severe storm conditions.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 83.5 - increasing 8.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 79.98). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 43 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 42.8). Three hour interval K indices: 56564433 (planetary), 46665433 (Boulder), 77545545 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 2 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 33) and in 1 active region using 1K resolution (SN: 15) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12882 [N17W39]
was mostly quiet. A B9 flare at 01:40 UT triggered activity in a filament to
the west and north of the region. The filament eruption was associated with
a partial halo CME.
Region 12884 [S19W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
October 10-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
October 12: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption near AR 12882 around 02h UT. The CME may have an Earth directed component. If it does, the CME could reach Earth late on October 15.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1037) will likely rotate across the central meridian on October 15-16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 13-16 with a chance of active intervals on October 15-16 should the October 12 CME reach Earth.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are red colored.
|Active region||SWPC date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|1||N26W87||0010||AXX||spotless after noon|
|Total spot count:||6||13||5|
|Sunspot number:||26||33||15||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||16||23||15||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||29||18||12|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average ap
|166.3||146.1 (cycle peak)||110.5||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (solar max)||7.88|
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
|2021.04||75.9||76.4||24.5||(26.0 projected, +4.2)||8.40|
|2021.05||75.3||77.1||21.2||(28.7 projected, +2.7)||6.50|
|2021.06||79.4||81.8||25.3||(31.9 projected, +3.2)||5.52|
|2021.07||81.0||83.6||34.4||(36.5 projected, +4.6)||5.51|
|2021.08||77.7||79.7||22.4||(41.1 projected, +4.6)||6.19|
|2021.09||87.0||88.2||51.5||(46.8 projected, +5.7)||6.33|
|2021.10||85.7 (1)||9.9 (2A) / 25.7 (2B) / 42.6 (2C)||(51.2 projected, +4.4)||(9.9)|
|2021.11||(55.8 projected, +4.6)|
|2021.12||(61.7 projected, +5.9)|
|2022.01||(65.3 projected, +3.6)|
|2022.02||(70.0 projected, +4.7)|
|2022.03||(75.4 projected, +5.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.