The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on November 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 541 and 659 km/sec, averaging 599 km/sec (-44 km/sec compared to the previous day). The above 10 MeV proton flux started the UT day at 3.7 pfu and gradually declined to 1.2 pfu by the end of the day. The early hours of November 16 has seen the arrival of at least one CME, probably two. A sudden increase in solar wind speed was observed at SOHO at 01:46 UT, possibly the arrival of the November 13 CME. ACE recorded a quick increase in the total IMF field near the same time, and again at 04:43 UT. The latter time was likely the arrival of the November 14 CME. Solar wind speed is in excess of 700 km/sec as I write this.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 132.3 - decreasing 16.2 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 159.51 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 152.5 (41 days ago, this is 52.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 8.1). Three hour interval K indices: 21222133 (planetary), 11222322 (Boulder), 22323265 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 200) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 126) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14274 [N24W84] rotated partly out of view
and produced many C flares. There's still a chance of another major flare
today and maybe even on November 17 as the spot group rotates behind the
northwest limb. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:16, C1.7 @ 04:17, C1.7 @ 04:28, C1.8 @
06:11, C1.8 @ 07:09, C1.7 @ 08:42, C1.5 @ 09:24, C1.9 @ 10:05, C1.4 @ 13:49,
C1.6 @ 15:16, C1.5 @ 17:01, C1.8 @ 17:21, C1.3 @ 18:18, C1.7 @ 19:02 UT
AR 14276 [S15W59] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14277 [S06W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14279 [S13W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14280 [S09W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14282 [S20W47] was quiet and stable.
New AR 14283 [S19E04] emerged on November 14 and was numbered by SWPC
the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11596 [S07W27] was quiet and stable.
AR S11602 [N08E10] was quiet and stable.
AR S11605 [S17E20] was quiet and stable.
AR S11609 [N24E37] saw two tiny spots emerge to the east of
the original spots.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 01:37 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 02:49 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 05:13 | behind southwest limb | 14281 | GOES18 | |
| C6.2 | 05:28 | N25W78 | 14274 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 05:47 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 07:56 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 08:00 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 10:46 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 11:23 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 12:57 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 13:21 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 14:24 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 20:38 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.5 | 21:14 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:38 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 21:57 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.7 | 22:51 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 23:09 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 23:29 | 14274 | GOES18 |
November 15-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
November 14: A full halo CME was observed after the X4.0 flare
in AR 14274 peaking at 08:30 UT. The CME reached Earth early on November 16.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1330) will be Earth facing on November 13-16. Another northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1331) will likely rotate across the central meridian on November 18.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on November 16-17, first due to CME effects then due to effects associated with CH1330. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on November 18.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
6 | 3 | 2 | N25W88 | 0570 | EKC | CKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 area: 0380 location: N24W84 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
1 | N07W93 | 0040 | HSX |
 |
was AR S11577 area: 0160 rotated out of view |
||||
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S16W60 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11581 location: S15W59 |
| 14278 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
N11W64 |
was AR S11582 location: N12W59 |
||||||||
| 14277 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
3 | 7 | 3 | S06W58 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11583 location: S06W57 |
| 14279 | 2025.11.07 2025.11.09 |
1 | 5 | 2 | S13W22 | 0010 | HRX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11587 area: 0030 location: S13W20 |
| S11591 | 2025.11.08 | N14W45 | |||||||||
| 14280 | 2025.11.09 2025.11.10 |
2 | 16 | 4 | S07W06 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11593 area: 0020 location: S09W05 |
| S11596 | 2025.11.10 | 4 | 1 | S07W27 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11598 | 2025.11.10 | S32W47 | |||||||||
| S11600 | 2025.11.11 | N27W55 | |||||||||
| 14282 | 2025.11.11 2025.11.14 |
2 | 14 | 5 | S21W49 | 0010 | BXO | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S11601 area: 0025 location: S20W47 |
| S11602 | 2025.11.11 | 13 | 3 | N08E10 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11603 | 2025.11.12 | S06E11 | |||||||||
| S11604 | 2025.11.12 | N09W28 | |||||||||
| S11605 | 2025.11.12 | 16 | 2 | S17E20 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11606 | 2025.11.13 | N07E24 | |||||||||
| S11607 | 2025.11.13 | N04W11 | |||||||||
| S11608 | 2025.11.14 | S24W46 |
 |
||||||||
| S11609 | 2025.11.14 | 3 | N24E37 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 14283 | 2025.11.14 2025.11.15 |
1 | 5 | 3 | S19E04 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11610 area: 0020 |
| Total spot count: | 17 | 90 | 26 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 97 | 200 | 126 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 43 | 117 | 53 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 107 | 110 | 101 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 152.2 (1) | 50.5 (2A) / 101.0 (2B) / 123.5 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (28.2) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
