The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 27. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 427 and 539 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 156.9 - increasing 3.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 141.00. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11110012 (planetary), 12122322 (Boulder), 21111234 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 315) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 206) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13310 [S20W58] was quiet and stable.
Region 13311 [N19W42] gained a few intermediate and trailing spots.
The region has polarity intermixing and may still be capable of M class
flaring. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 16:22 UT
Region 13312 [S24W34] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1
@08:59 UT
Region 13313 [N22W27] was quiet and stable.
Region 13315 [S17W07] gained area, however, opposite polarity fields
are separating. The magnetic delta observed the previous day disappeared. M
class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 00:31, C1.0 @ 01:59, C1.1 @
04:25, C1.1 @ 06:40, C1.0 @ 09:30, C1.0 @ 11:20, C1.2 @ 13:16, C1.6 @ 16:36,
C1.3 @ 18:17, C1.2 @ 20:24, C1.3 @ 20:40, C1.5 @ 22:38 UT
Region 13316 [N08E23] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1
flares: C1.3 @ 12:51, C1.4 @ 21:23 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S8589 [S20W25] was quiet and stable.
S8590 [N16W58] is a compact
region with a magnetic delta configuration and M class flaring potential.
S8595 [N19E20] was quiet and stable.
New region S8596 [N01E09] emerged before noon, then decayed slowly.
New region S8597 [N24W08] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S8598 [S09E14] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8599 [S19E27] emerged with a few spots.
New region S8600 [S14E36] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
A C1.1 flare at 12:11 UT had its origin behind the southeast limb.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C8.4 | 04:35 | 13311 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep flare was in the leading spot section of AR 13311 |
|
| C2.8 | 06:12 | 13315 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:48 | S17W02 | 13315 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 15:27 | 13311 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 15:52 | 13315 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 19:24 | 13312 | GOES16 | weak type II radio sweep | |
| C2.2 | 21:53 | 13315 | GOES16 |
May 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1150) will likely rotate across the central meridian on May 31 - June 1.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for May 28-30.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13310 | 2023.05.16 2023.05.17 |
1 | 10 | 6 | S20W58 | 0260 | HHX | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0480 |
| 13311 | 2023.05.17 2023.05.18 |
8 | 33 | 17 | N18W46 | 0180 | EAO | ESI |
 |
 |
location: N19W42 |
| 13312 | 2023.05.18 2023.05.19 |
6 | 23 | 15 | S25W36 | 0020 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
location: S24W34 area: 0040 |
| 13313 | 2023.05.18 2023.05.19 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N23W28 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0150 location: N22W27 |
| 13314 | 2023.05.19 2023.05.20 |
4 | N15W58 | 0120 | DAO |
merged with AR 13311 on 2023.05.22 SWPC resurrected the region on 2023.05.24 see AR S8590 |
|||||
| S8579 | 2023.05.21 | S02W51 | |||||||||
| S8582 | 2023.05.22 | S09W47 | |||||||||
| 13315 | 2023.05.22 2023.05.23 |
28 | 45 | 31 | S17W08 | 0620 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S17W07 area: 0940 |
| S8584 | 2023.05.22 | S19W26 | |||||||||
| S8588 | 2023.05.24 | S12W55 |
 |
||||||||
| S8589 | 2023.05.24 | 3 | S20W25 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8590 | 2023.05.24 | 14 | 8 | N16W58 | 0160 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta | ||
| S8591 | 2023.05.24 | N12E14 | |||||||||
| 13316 | 2023.05.24 2023.05.26 |
7 | 19 | 9 | N09E22 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N08E23 |
| S8593 | 2023.05.25 | N26W13 | |||||||||
| S8594 | 2023.05.26 | N08E07 |
 |
||||||||
| S8595 | 2023.05.26 | 4 | N19E20 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8596 | 2023.05.27 | 2 | N01E09 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8597 | 2023.05.27 | 6 | 2 | N24W08 | 0025 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8598 | 2023.05.27 | 3 | 2 | S09E14 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8599 | 2023.05.27 | 5 | 3 | S19E27 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8600 | 2023.05.27 | 4 | 2 | S14E36 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 55 | 175 | 96 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 125 | 315 | 206 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 93 | 219 | 140 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 138 | 173 | 165 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | (100.4 projected, +1.7) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | (104.1 projected, +3.7) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (110.1 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (115.2 projected, +5.1) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (118.3 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (123.7 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.4 (1) | 107.5 (2A) / 123.5 (2B) / 153.0 (2C) | (129.3 projected, +5.6) | (11.6) | |
| 2023.06 | (132.5 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (132.0 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (133.0 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (136.4 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (138.3 projected, +1.9) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (141.4 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
