The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A strong solar wind shock was observed at 14:44 UT at SOHO, the arrival of the October 8 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 399 and 873 km/sec, averaging 553 km/sec (+160 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux decayed slowly towards background levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.5 - increasing 18.6 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 131.85 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 116.7 (41 days ago, this is 30.1% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 52 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 52.4). Three hour interval K indices: 23324776 (planetary), 22433664 (Boulder), 34224775 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 161) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 100) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14545 [N17W60] decayed
slowly and was mostly quiet.
AR 14548 [S12W26] was quiet and stable.
AR 14549 [N08W57] still has a strong magnetic delta configuration in
the leading spot section. Slow decayed was observed elsewhere. Further major
flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 00:52, C1.1 @ 01:25, C1.0 @ 02:29,
C1.0 @ 07:04, C1.5 @ 04:20, C1.7 @ 09:33, C1.2 @ 12:18 UT
AR 14551 [S14E59] was mostly quiet and stable. M class flaring is
possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 01:44, C1.4 @ 11:53, C1.6 @ 22:48 UT
AR 14552 [N22W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S12410 [S09E38] was quiet and stable.
AR S12411 [S01W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR S12412 [N19E20] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S12413 [N07E74] rotated into view with
tiny spots.
AR 14547 behind the northwest limb was the source of C1 flares: C1.3 @ 05:13, C1.6 @ 08:51, C1.4 @ 09:08, C1.0 @ 11:22 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C7.9 | 04:38 | N08W40 | 14549 | GOES18 | |
| C4.2 | 08:13 | behind NW limb | 14547 | GOES18 | |
| C2.7 | 13:25 | 14549 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.2/1N | 14:12 | N11W46 | 14549 | GOES18 | |
| C3.9 | 14:45 | behind NW limb | 14547 | GOES18 | |
| M6.4/1N | 15:10 | 14549 | GOES18 | CME, LDE, weak type II radio sweep | |
| C3.4 | 17:35 | 14551 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.8 | 17:52 | 14551 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 20:18 | 14545 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 20:40 | 14549 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 23:20 | 14545 | GOES18 |
October 8: A fast partial halo CME was observed after the major M6
flare in AR 14549. The CME reached Earth on October 10.
October 9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
October 10: A faint halo CME component was observed after the M6.4
flare in AR 14549. While the main ejecta was observed off the northwest
limb, there is a chance of a solar wind shock on October 13.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1403) will rotate across the central meridian on October 7-12. A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1404) will be Earth facing on October 10-12.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on October 11 due to CME effects. High speed streams from CH1403 and CH1404 will likely vecome the dominant solar wind sources October 12-15 and cause quiet to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14545 | 2026.09.30 2026.10.01 |
5 | 10 | 7 | N17W60 | 0020 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S12387 SWPC classication is not in accordance with the McIntosh classification standard |
| 14548 | 2026.10.02 2026.10.03 |
1 | 3 | 2 | S13W26 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S12392 area: 0090 |
| S12393 | 2026.10.02 | S13W55 | |||||||||
| 14549 | 2026.10.04 2026.10.05 |
28 | 24 | 16 | N09W54 | 0260 | EKI | EAC |
 |
 |
originally
reversed polarities beta-gamma-delta was AR S12399 area: 0340 SWPC spot count is much higher than expected location: N08W57 |
| S12400 | 2026.10.04 | N04W57 | |||||||||
| S12401 | 2026.10.05 | N13W36 |
 |
||||||||
| 14550 | 2026.10.07 2026.10.07 |
S16W65 |
was AR S12404 location: S16W61 |
||||||||
| S12405 | 2026.10.07 | N12W13 | |||||||||
| 14552 | 2026.10.08 2026.10.09 |
3 | 6 | 2 | N22W34 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S12406 location: N22W33 |
| 14551 | 2026.10.08 2026.10.09 |
12 | 19 | 12 | S14E61 | 0360 | EKO | EKO |
 |
 |
was AR S12407 area: 0840 location: S14E59 |
| S12408 | 2026.10.08 | N04W34 | |||||||||
| S12409 | 2026.10.09 | N09W25 |
 |
||||||||
| S12410 | 2026.10.09 | 4 | S09E38 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S12411 | 2026.10.09 | 1 | S01W54 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S12412 | 2026.10.10 | 2 | N19E20 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S12413 | 2026.10.10 | 2 | 1 | N07E74 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 49 | 71 | 40 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 99 | 161 | 100 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 79 | 94 | 63 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 99 | 81 | 75 | (Effective 2026.09.19: SWPC adjustment changed from 1.1 to 1.0, STAR 2K adjustment changed from 0.55 to 0.5, STAR 1K adjustment changed from 0.8 to 0.75) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.5 (-2.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.4 (-4.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 113.1 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.5 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.9 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 107.0 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 115.0 | 104.2 (-2.8) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 77.4 | 99.8 (-4.4) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 86.6 | 94.5 (-5.3) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (89.6 projected, -4.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (87.2 projected, -2.4) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (84.1 projected, -3.1) | 9.57 |
| 2026.07 | 134.7 | 139.0 | 78.1 | (79.2 projected, -4.9) | 10.16 |
| 2026.08 | 116.1 | 119.0 | 76.0 | (77.0 projected, -2.2) | 8.67 |
| 2026.09 | 105.0 | 106.1 | 60.3 | (76.1 projected, -0.9) | 7.7 |
| 2026.10 | 106.2 (1) | 21.2 (2A) / 65.2 (2B) / 68.0 (2C) | (74.0 projected, -2.1) | (15.5) | |
| 2026.11 | (71.2 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (68.0 projected, -3.2) | ||||
| 2027.01 | (65.6 projected, -2.4) | ||||
| 2027.02 | (63.8 projected, -1.8) | ||||
| 2027.03 | (62.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
