Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 3, 2022 at 03:55 UT. Flare data to be added.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (September 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on October 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 377 and 589 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels. A disturbance, likely related to the arrival of effects from CH1104, began after 20h UT.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 153.9 - increasing 23.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 114.25). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.9). Three hour interval K indices: 22122325 (planetary), 22133324 (Boulder), 32122427 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 267) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 174) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13110 [N18W51] developed further with a major part of the negative polarity area in the north surrounded by positive polarity. The inversion line is fairly long and two major flares occurred along that line. Further major flares are likely.
Region 13111 [N27E06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13112 [N19E50] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include the spots from AR S7901 in this region. If that interpretation was correct the region would extend 24 degrees longitudinally.
Region 13113 [N16W41] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13114 [S33E15] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E61] gained area and spots and is magnetically very complex with multiple magnetic delta structures. A major flare is possible.
S7902 [N28E57] was quiet and stable.
S7904 [S18E16] gained spots and area and was quiet.
S7905 [N30E68] gained spots and was quiet.
New region S7906 [S10E32] emerged with several spots.
New region S7907 [S25W37] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.0 00:37   13110 GOES16  
C2.4 01:37   S7901 GOES16  
M8.7/1N 02:21 N16W34 13110 GOES16 CME, weak type IV radio sweep
C2.6 04:47   S7901 GOES16  
C2.8 05:22   13110 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR S7901
C4.1 06:21   S7901 GOES16 incorrectly attributed to AR 13110 by SWPC
C2.3 10:43   S7901 GOES16 incorrectly attributed to AR 13110 by SWPC
C2.4 11:39   13110 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR S7901
C3.0 11:53 N18W44 13110 GOES16  
C4.3 13:32   S7901 GOES16  
M1.2 14:05 N25E73 S7901 GOES16  
C8.7 14:57 S29W77 13107 GOES16  
M1.0 15:45 N22E69 S7901 GOES16  
C3.6 17:34   13107 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR S7901
C7.8 18:07 N17W47 13110 GOES16  
C8.1 19:08   S7901 GOES16  
C5.5 19:44   S7901 GOES16  
M1.1 20:10   S7901 GOES16 LDE
X1.0 20:25   13110 GOES16 moderate type II radio sweep, minor increase in proton levels
Simultaneous significant flare in AR S7901
C4.9 22:00   S7901 GOES16  
C3.4 22:25   S7901 GOES16  
C9.0 23:08 N22E66 S7901 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

September 30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
October 1: A filament eruption near AR 13113 peaked near 13h UT and was associated with a partial halo CME. This CME could reach Earth on October 4.
October 2: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M8 flare in AR 13110 early in the day. The CME could reach Earth early on October 4.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

Recurrent coronal holes (CH1103/CH1104) were Earth facing on September 27 - October 1.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to major conditions are likely on October 3-5, first due to effects from CH1104, then due to CME effects.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13107 2022.09.20
2022.09.21
2     S25W82 0030 HSX    

location: S24W79

spotless

13110 2022.09.22
2022.09.23
10 24 12 N17W52 0180 DAO DAC

beta-delta

location: N18W51

13111 2022.09.26
2022.09.27
1 8 2 N28E04 0070 HSX CSO

location: N27E06

S7893 2022.09.28       S15W35            
S7894 2022.09.29       N12W11            
13113 2022.09.29
2022.09.30
8 31 11 N16W40 0080 DAI DAI

area: 0180

S7897 2022.09.29       N31W13          
13114 2022.09.30
2022.10.01
3 7 4 S34E11 0020 BXO BXO location: S33E15
13112 2022.09.30
2022.09.30
18 11 6 N23E59 0750 FKI HAX area: 0180

location: N19E50

SWPC includes AR S7901 in this region

S7900 2022.09.30       S26W37            
S7901 2022.09.30   43 23 N22E61 0720   FKC beta-gamma-delta
S7902 2022.09.30   2 1 N28E57 0005   AXX  
S7903 2022.09.30       S12E09            
S7904 2022.10.01   12 6 S18E16 0040   CRI  
S7905 2022.10.01   12 5 N30E68 0025   BXI  
S7906 2022.10.02   6 4 S10E32 0020   CRO    
S7907 2022.10.02   1   S25W37 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 42 157 74  
Sunspot number: 102 267 174  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 72 193 110  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 112 147 139  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.2
2022.10 150.9 (1)   6.5 (2A) / 101.0 (2B) / 112.5 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (6.9)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.