The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on February 9 due to effects from CH1269. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 325 and 676 km/sec, averaging 434 km/sec (+96 km/sec compared to the previous day. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 163.0 - increasing 3.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 193.23. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50 while SC23 peaked on February 23, 2002 at 198.15. Current SC25 peak: 193.35 on August 7, 2024 (subtracting a base solar flux level of 65, this is +59.44% compared to the SC24 peak and -3.61% compared to the SC23 peak). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.4). Three hour interval K indices: 12123454 (planetary), 12223444 (Boulder), 12012455 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 18).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 226) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 151) SDO/HMI images.
AR 13978 [N10W82] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13983 [N06W07] saw new flux and spots emerge immediately to the
north of the leader spot. While this is probably a separate spot group, the
latitudinal separation is too small to maintain a split.
AR 13985 [N22W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 13986 [N06E17] was quiet and stable.
AR 13987 [S09E26] was quiet and stable.
AR 13988 [S18W36] was quiet and stable.
New AR 13989 [N18E65] rotated into view on February 8 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S10759 [N07W71] decayed slowly and produced several C flares. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 05:11, C1.7 @ 10:19 UT
S10762 [N12W75] decayed further and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.6
@ 05:47 UT
S10781 [S14W19] was quiet and stable.
S10782 [S14E31] was quiet and stable.
New region S10783 [S10E80] rotated into view
and has M class flare potential.
New region S10784 [S09W06] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
C2+ flares
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C4.5 | 01:01 | SE limb | S10783 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13976 |
C2.7 | 01:35 | S10762 | GOES16 | ||
C2.1 | 02:15 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C4.4 | 02:49 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C3.9 | 03:21 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C3.1 | 03:40 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C2.1 | 04:20 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C2.8 | 07:12 | 13978 | GOES16 | ||
C2.0 | 08:54 | S10783 | GOES16 | ||
C4.1 | 14:13 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C2.1 | 14:42 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C2.1 | 19:32 | 13978 | GOES16 | ||
C2.5 | 19:40 | S10782 | GOES16 | ||
C3.9 | 20:25 | behind NW limb | 13977 | GOES16 | |
C3.1 | 20:59 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C2.4 | 21:15 | S10759 | GOES16 | ||
C3.0 | 23:53 | S10759 | GOES16 |
February 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1269) rotated across the central meridian on February 6-8. A recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1270) will rotate into an Earth facing position on February 9-12.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor levels on February 10 and quiet to active levels on February 11-12 due to effects from CH1269. A high speed stream from CH1270 could cause quiet to active levels on February 13-16.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
13976 | 2025.01.27 2025.01.27 |
1 | N11W96 | 0080 | HSX | rotared out of view | |||||
13977 | 2025.01.27 2025.01.27 |
1 | N18W96 | 0010 | AXX |
spotless since 2025.02.08, rotated out of view 2025.02.09 |
|||||
13978 | 2025.01.28 2025.01.28 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N11W80 | 0030 | HRX | HAX |
location: N10W82 |
||
13980 | 2025.01.29 2025.01.30 |
S12W79 |
was AR S10752 location: S12W72 |
||||||||
S10753 | 2025.01.29 | N06W62 | reinstated on 2025.02.02 due to SWPC using AR 13981 for two different spot groups | ||||||||
13981 | 2025.01.30 | 8 | N07W69 | 0200 | EAC |
see AR S10753/S10759 This was initially AR S10753. SWPC moved the location of AR 13981 to that of AR S10759, a separate spot group which emerged on January 31. |
|||||
13982 | 2025.01.30 | N21W79 |
was AR S10754 location: N23W76 |
||||||||
13984 | 2025.01.30 2025.02.04 |
8 | N10W85 | 0060 | DAO |
was AR S10755 spotless, there are no spots where SWPC is reporting spots location: N15W81 SWPC location on 2025.02.08 was N15W66 |
|||||
S10759 | 2025.01.31 | 24 | 10 | N07W71 | 0830 | EKI |
beta-gamma-delta This is currently AR 13981 to SWPC |
||||
S10762 | 2025.02.01 | 4 | 1 | N12W75 | 0015 | CRO | |||||
13985 | 2025.02.01 2025.02.04 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N23W52 | 0005 | AXX | AXX |
was AR S10763 location: N22W53 area: 0010 |
||
13988 | 2025.02.02 2025.02.07 |
3 | 14 | 5 | S18W37 | 0010 | CRO | DRO |
was AR S10766 area: 0040 |
||
S10767 | 2025.02.02 | S20W53 | |||||||||
S10768 | 2025.02.03 | N20W51 | |||||||||
13983 | 2025.02.03 2025.02.04 |
3 | 17 | 10 | N06W07 | 0040 | CSO | CAI |
was AR S10769 area: 0100 |
||
S10770 | 2025.02.03 | N25W47 | |||||||||
13986 | 2025.02.04 2025.02.05 |
2 | 8 | 3 | N06E15 | 0140 | HSX | CAO |
was AR S10772 area: 0200 location: N06E17 |
||
13987 | 2025.02.05 2025.02.06 |
3 | 7 | 3 | S09E24 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
was AR S10774 area: 0020 location: S09E26 |
||
S10775 | 2025.02.05 | S43W18 | |||||||||
S10776 | 2025.02.06 | S27W45 | |||||||||
S10779 | 2025.02.07 | N23W18 | |||||||||
13989 | 2025.02.08 2025.02.09 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N18E64 | 0120 | HSX | HHX |
was AR S10780 area 0280 |
||
S10781 | 2025.02.08 | 8 | 4 | S14W19 | 0020 | BXO | |||||
S10782 | 2025.02.08 | 1 | S14E31 | 0001 | AXX | ||||||
S10783 | 2025.02.09 | 6 | 3 | S10E80 | 0450 | CKO | |||||
S10784 | 2025.02.09 | 3 | S09W06 | 0005 | AXX | ||||||
Total spot count: | 32 | 96 | 42 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 142 | 226 | 152 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 71 | 150 | 96 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 156 | 124 | 122 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 160.5 | 125.3 (+1.1) | 8.95 |
2023.07 | 176.4 | 182.2 | 160.0 | 124.6 (-0.7) | 8.15 |
2023.08 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 114.8 | 124.3 (-0.3) | 7.19 |
2023.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 134.2 | 124.0 (-0.3) | 14.26 |
2023.10 | 142.8 | 141.9 | 99.4 | 124.8 (+0.8) | 8.16 |
2023.11 | 153.5 | 150.2 | 105.4 | 127.9 (+3.1) | 12.20 |
2023.12 | 151.1 | 146.4 | 114.2 | 129.5 (+1.6) | 9.60 |
2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.7 (+3.6) | 10.24 |
2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 154.9 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | (156.2 projected, +1.3) | 15.96 |
2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | (158.3 projected, +2.1) | 15.36 |
2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 166.3 | (159.1 projected, +0.8) | 18.99 |
2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 152.5 | (156.5 projected, -2.6) | 9.33 |
2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.5 | (152.1 projected, -4.4) | 8.42 |
2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (145.8 projected, -6.3) | 13.17 |
2025.02 | 191.6 (1) | 52.3 (2A) / 162.8 (2B) / 169.2 (2C) | (137.2 projected, -8.6) | (10.2) | |
2025.03 | (130.8 projected, -6.4) | ||||
2025.04 | (126.2 projected, -4.6) | ||||
2025.05 | (120.9 projected, -5.3) | ||||
2025.06 | (115.6 projected, -5.3) | ||||
2025.07 | (110.9 projected, -4.7) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity increased again during the second half of December 2024, and this will be the eighth consecutive month with average solar flux above 180. The average solar flux at 1 AU since May 1, 2024 is 205. There is an increasing chance solar cycle 25 could have a higher 1 year solar flux average than solar cycle 23. The above plot displays a projected peak for the ISN 365d smoothed sunspot number on October 12, 2024. All the other smoothed sunspot numbers as well as the smoothed 365d solar flux have projected peaks October 12-15. A sudden decrease in activity during the first months of 2025 could move the SC25 max to sometime between July and October 2024.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.