The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on August 18 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1094. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 505 and 702 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to severe storm levels. It is unclear if any of the CMEs observed from August 15 onwards have reached Earth. None of the solar wind parameters recorded at DSCOVR have displayed distinct evidence of CME influence.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 116.5 - increasing 1.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.82). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 30 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 30.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32335555 (planetary), 32434544 (Boulder), 44345676 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 190) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 122) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13078 [S24W44] decayed significantly
losing much of its penumbral and most of its umbral area. There is still
significant polarity intermixing and further M flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 02:52, C1.9 @ 08:09,
C1.7 @ 09:20, C1.1 @ 15:53, C1.4 @ 16:57, C1.5 @ 18:14 UT
Region 13081 [N10W25] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13082 [N27E26] was quiet and stable.
Region 13083 [S26W53] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13084 [S09E18] emerged on August 14 and was numbered by
SWPC 4 days later.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10W27] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7786 [S19E47] was quiet and stable.
S7787 [N36W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7790 [N12E18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7792 [N30E53] emerged with a tiny spot.
A C1.0 flare was recorded at 20:48 UT from a source behind the southwest limb.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.7 | 00:40 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 04:29 | S24W30 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 04:39 | N09W09 | 13081 | GOES16 | |
| C4.2 | 05:22 | N11W08 | 13081 | GOES16 | |
| C5.7 | 06:02 | S24W34 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 08:52 | S24W30 | 13078 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13082 |
| M1.4/1N | 10:09 | S23W38 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| M1.5 | 10:55 | 13078 | GOES16 | faint halo CME, weak type II and IV radio sweeps | |
| C2.7 | 12:35 | N20W76 | S7776 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 12:54 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3/1F | 14:13 | S25W37 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C4.2 | 15:53 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 19:37 | S24W40 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C3.4 | 20:13 | 13081 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.3 | 21:58 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 22:15 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 22:24 | 13078 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4/1F | 22:40 | S27W41 | 13078 | GOES16 | |
| C3.9 | 23:50 | 13081 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13078 |
August 15: A partial halo CME was observed after the long duration C3
event in AR 13074 early in the day.
August 16: No well defined CME was observed after the M5 major flare
in AR 13078, however, there is chance CME effects will reach Earth on August
18 or 19.
August 17: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M1.0 long
duration event in AR 13078 peaking at 14:52 UT. The CME could reach Earth on
August 20.
August 18: A faint full halo CME was observed after an M1.5 flare in
AR 13078 peaking at 10:55 UT. The CME could reach Earth on
August 21.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) rotated across the central meridian on August 14-17. S small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1095) will be Earth facing on August 19.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected for August 19-21 due to effects from CH1094 and the August 17 and 18 CMEs. Major storm intervals are possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on August 22 due to effect from CH1095.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13076 | 2022.08.06 2022.08.07 |
N15W77 |
 |
location: N15W73 |
|||||||
| 13078 | 2022.08.09 2022.08.10 |
14 | 32 | 15 | S24W47 | 0210 | DAC | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S24W44 |
| S7766 | 2022.08.10 | 3 | 1 | S11W29 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13081 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.13 |
9 | 19 | 7 | N11W23 | 0120 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N10W25 |
| S7771 | 2022.08.11 | S27W51 | |||||||||
| S7775 | 2022.08.13 | N36W48 | |||||||||
| S7777 | 2022.08.14 | N26W52 | |||||||||
| 13084 | 2022.08.14 | 3 | 15 | 7 | S09E18 | 0020 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| S7779 | 2022.08.14 | N11W39 | |||||||||
| 13083 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
3 | 5 | 3 | S24W56 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S26W53 |
| 13082 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
4 | 11 | 6 | N27E22 | 0050 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N27E22 |
| S7785 | 2022.08.15 | N16W01 | |||||||||
| S7786 | 2022.08.16 | 2 | 2 | S19E47 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7787 | 2022.08.16 | 1 | N36W13 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7788 | 2022.08.16 | S16E47 | |||||||||
| S7789 | 2022.08.16 | N13W38 |
 |
||||||||
| S7790 | 2022.08.17 | 1 | 1 | N12E19 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7791 | 2022.08.18 | N22W19 |
 |
||||||||
| S7792 | 2022.08.18 | 1 | N30E53 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 33 | 90 | 42 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 83 | 190 | 122 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 48 | 111 | 63 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 91 | 105 | 98 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.4 (1) | 42.0 (2A) / 72.3 (2B) / 93.1 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (12.2) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
