The geomagnetic field was at major to very severe storm levels on January 20 under the influence of effects from the January 18 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 609 and 1027 km/sec, averaging 929 km/sec (+396 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at major to severe storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux decreased gradually and was at 28 pfu at the end of the UT day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 177.6 - increasing 28.8 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 151.89 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 145.2 (41 days ago, this is 48.1% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 150 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 150.3). Three hour interval K indices: 76888778 (planetary), 75787556 (Boulder), 55556667 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 381) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 252) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14341 [S10W07] decayed slowly and was mostly
quiet losing spots and area.
AR 14342 [N17W04] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC groups AR
S11780 with this AR.
AR 14343 [S11W56] decayed quickly and quietly.
AR 14344 [N18W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14345 [S17W02] has a weak magnetic delta configuration in the
central spot section and was the most active region on the visible disk. C1
flares: C1.6 @ 03:50, C1.9 @ 16:44, C1.6 @ 21:36, C1.5 @ 22:27 UT
AR 14347 [N10E21] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14348 [S18W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14349 [S14E60] produced a few low level C flares and has M flare
potential.
AR 14350 [N20E46] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14351 [S04E33] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.8 @
19:30 UT
New AR 14352 [S01E23] emerged early in the day with a few spots.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11780 [N13W04] displayed signs of decay,
however, there's still a chance of a minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.7 @
12:43, C1.6 @ 15:24, C1.7 @ 21:49, C1.5 @ 22:07, C1.5 @ 23:01 UT
AR S11788 [N04E05] was quiet and stable.
New AR S11791 [S05E24] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S11793 [N18E55] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New AR S11794 [S14E10] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage
area.
New AR S11795 [N08W36] emerged with a tiny spot.
C1 flares not attributed to an AR due to missing imagery: C1.7 @ 07:21 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 04:38 | 14349 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 05:32 | 14349 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 06:14 | 14345 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 06:31 | 14345 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.4 | 07:33 | S17E02 | 14345 | GOES18 | |
| C4.0 | 08:16 | S17E02 | 14345 | GOES18 | |
| C3.0 | 13:02 | 14345 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.2 | 13:22 | S11780 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.3 | 13:58 | 14345 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 14:49 | 14345 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 16:03 | 14345 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 17:53 | 14342 | GOES18 |
January 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
January 18: A full halo CME was observed after the X1.9 flare in AR
14341. The CME impacted Earth during the evening of January 19.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A huge recurrent trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1340) will be Earth facing on January 15-22.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on January 21 due to CME effects. The disturbance associated with CH1340 could resume on January 22-24 with quiet to active levels.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14340 | 2026.01.10 2026.01.11 |
N14W78 |
was AR S11760 location: N14W71 |
||||||||
| S11769 | 2026.01.13 | N08W43 | |||||||||
| 14341 | 2026.01.13 2026.01.14 |
13 | 47 | 26 | S11W09 | 0300 | DKO | DKO |
 |
 |
was AR S11770 area: 0520 location: S10W07 |
| 14342 | 2026.01.14 2026.01.14 |
16 | 10 | 3 | N14W04 | 0160 | DSI | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11772 area: 0210 location: N17W04 SWPC includes the spots of AR S11780 |
| S11773 | 2026.01.14 | N17W53 | |||||||||
| 14343 | 2026.01.14 2026.01.15 |
1 | 3 | 2 | S09W58 | 0020 | HRX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11774 area: 0250 location: S11W56 SWPC area, classification does not match physical reality |
| 14344 | 2026.01.15 | 1 | 11 | 2 | N19W16 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N18W15 |
| 14345 | 2026.01.15 2026.01.15 |
20 | 46 | 32 | S17W02 | 0120 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11776 area: 0500 |
| 14346 | 2026.01.15 2026.01.15 |
S14E07 |
 |
was AR S11777 location: S13E10 |
|||||||
| S11779 | 2026.01.15 | N12W21 | |||||||||
| S11780 | 2026.01.15 | 34 | 24 | N13W04 | 0290 | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma | ||
| 14347 | 2026.01.16 2026.01.16 |
1 | 7 | 2 | N11E21 | 0050 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11781 area: 0140 location: N10E21 |
| S11783 | 2026.01.16 | N02E03 | |||||||||
| 14348 | 2026.01.18 2026.01.18 |
4 | 7 | 2 | S18W28 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11784 area: 0015 location: S18W30 |
| 14350 | 2026.01.18 2026.01.19 |
1 | 9 | 3 | N21E45 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11786 location: N20E46 |
| 14351 | 2026.01.18 2026.01.19 |
2 | 10 | 5 | S04E33 | 0020 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11787 area: 0030 |
| S11788 | 2026.01.18 | 3 | 2 | N04E05 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 14349 | 2026.01.18 2026.01.19 |
2 | 9 | 5 | S14E61 | 0080 | CSO | DHO |
 |
 |
was AR S11789 area: 0360 location: S14E60 |
| 14352 | 2026.01.20 2026.01.20 |
1 | 5 | 3 | S02E22 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
was AR S11790 area: 0020 loction: S01E23 |
|
| S11791 | 2026.01.20 | 2 | 1 | S05E24 | 0012 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S11793 | 2026.01.20 | 2 | N18E55 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11794 | 2026.01.20 | 5 | S14E10 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S11795 | 2026.01.20 | 1 | N08W36 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 62 | 211 | 112 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 172 | 381 | 252 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 95 | 268 | 169 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 189 | 210 | 202 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | (122.4 projected, -2.3) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | (119.3 projected, -3.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | (115.8 projected, -3.5) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (111.8 projected, -4.0) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | (109.6 projected, -2.2) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | (108.0 projected, -1.6) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 145.2 (1) | 69.3 (2A) / 107.4 (2B) / 135.3 (2C) ISN to date: 106. At this level SSN for July 2025 would become: 122.1 |
(104.0 projected, -4.0) | (24.5) | |
| 2026.02 | (99.9 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (95.5 projected, -4.4) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (91.8 projected, -3.7) | ||||
| 2026.05 | (90.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
| 2026.06 | (88.4 projected, -2.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
