Last major update issued on October 14, 2010 at 04:15 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 299 and 380 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 78.1 (down 4.4 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.5). Three hour interval K indices: 21211111 (planetary), 22221111 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 3 spotted regions.
Region 11112 decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11113 rotated into view at the northeast limb.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S821] A new region emerged with a tiny spot in the northeast
quadrant. Location at midnight: N32E22
October 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
October 11: A possibly Earth directed CME was observed in STEREO images early in the day following a filament eruption (which began late on October 10) stretching northwestwards from region 11112.Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No significant coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions. The remains of a once large coronal hole have rotated into view near the northeast limb. The quick rate of decay observed 3-4 weeks ago has continued while the coronal hole was on the backside of the sun. An emerging coronal hole will be rotating into view over the next couple of days.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on October 14. Quiet to active conditions are possible October 15-16 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500 image |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11112 | 2010.10.09 | 3 | 4 | S17E14 | 0010 | CRO | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| 11113 | 2010.10.13 | 1 | 1 | N17E76 | 0120 | HAX | HSX |
 |
||
| S821 | 2010.10.13 | 1 | N32E22 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 4 | 6 | ||||||||
| SSN: | 24 | 36 | ||||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
|
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 | |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) | |
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2009.07 | 68.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 (+0.9) | 5.49 / 4.55 |
| 2009.08 | 67.3 | 0.0 | 4.8 (+1.2) | 5.70 / 4.89 |
| 2009.09 | 70.5 | 4.3 | 6.2 (+1.4) | 3.88 / 3.61 |
| 2009.10 | 72.6 | 4.8 | 7.1 (+0.9) | 3.66 / 3.56 |
| 2009.11 | 73.6 | 4.1 | 7.6 (+0.5) | 2.45 / 2.63 |
| 2009.12 | 76.7 | 10.8 | 8.3 (+0.7) | 1.41 / 1.92 |
| 2010.01 | 81.1 | 13.2 | 9.3 (+1.0) | 2.93 / 3.07 |
| 2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
| 2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | (13.9 predicted, +1.6) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | (15.2 predicted, +1.3) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | (16.7 predicted, +1.5) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | (18.3 predicted, +1.6) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | (19.5 predicted, +1.2) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | (20.7 predicted, +1.2) | 5.33 |
| 2010.10 | 77.6 (1) | 7.4 (2A) / 17.7 (2B) | (23.1 predicted, +2.4) | (5.83) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number
(accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the
daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on
the
official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.