The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 297 and 374 km/sec, averaging 336 km/sec (-31 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 128.7 - decreasing 8.2 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 138.85 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 135.4 (41 days ago, this is 41.9% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 3.5). Three hour interval K indices: 12210001 (planetary), 113***** (Boulder), 11111012 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 157) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 117) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14506 [N11W43] developed early in the day
and produced many low level C flares as well as the largest flare of the
day. Flare activity dropped sharply after the C8 flare. C1 flares: C1.4 @
03:47, C1.3 @ 06:16, C1.4 @ 06:37, C1.0 @ 07:04, C1.8 @ 08:38, C1.6 @
08:49, C1.4 @ 08:55, C1.0 @ 10:24, C1.7 @ 11:37, C1.2 @ 12:03, C1.5 @ 12:39,
C1.3 @ 12:54, C1.3 @ 13:48, C1.5 @ 14:51, C1.7 @ 15:12 UT
AR 14507 [N04W28] developed significantly before noon and at one
point had many small magnetic delta configurations. Many low level C flares
were recorded. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 00:23, C1.0 @ 01:05, C1.1 @ 01:29, C1.3 @
03:54, C1.5 @ 04:45, C1.0 @ 06:32, C1.2 @ 08:24, C1.4 @ 09:05, C1.1 @ 09:35,
C1.5 @ 09:59, C1.0 @ 10:12, C1.0 @ 10:28, C1.3 @ 11:15, C1.5 @ 11:29, C1.3 @
11:50, C1.3 @ 12:51, C1.3 @ 13:21, C1.4 @ 13:57, C1.7 @ 15:33, C1.3 @ 16:32,
C1.6 @ 17:15, C1.8 @ 17:32, C1.1 @ 21:55, C1.1 @ 22:11 UT
AR 14508 [N08E03] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.0 @
02:33, C1.0 @ 23:37 UT
AR 14510 [N12W53] developed in the trailing spot section as new flux
emerged there.
AR 14511 [S10E30] was quiet and stable.
AR 14512 [S19W28] was quiet with poor separation between tiny
opposite polarity spots.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S12298 [S15E22] was quiet and stable.
AR 14509 behind the northwest limb produced a C1.0 flare at 00:28 UT.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.7 | 02:49 | 14506 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.1 | 02:59 | 14507 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.7 | 03:18 | 14507 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 04:51 | 14506 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 04:56 | 14506 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 18:16 | 14506 | GOES18 | ||
| C8.2 | 19:28 | N10W41 | 14506 | GOES18 |
August 16: A CME was observed after the C8 flare in AR 14506. There's
a slight chance of geomagnetic effects on August 20.
August 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
August 14: A significant filament eruption was observed beginning
after 02h UT in SDO/AIA imagery. The major part of the eruption was just
south of the equator in the southeast quadrant between ARs 14507 and S12292.
While there was no impressive CME after this event, it is likely that a CME
will reach Earth on August 17. A second eruption was observed just north of
AR 14507 around 11-12 UT and appears to have been the source of a partial
halo CME. This CME could reach Earth as well on August 17.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1393) will be Earth facing on August 15-18. A recurrent negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1394) will rotate across the central meridian on August 17-18.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet quiet to minor storm levels on August 17-18 due to effects associated with the August 14 CMEs. Effects from CH1393 and CH1394 could cause unsettled to major storm levels on August 18-21.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14504 | 2026.08.05 2026.08.07 |
S19W84 |
was AR S12273 location: S19W73 |
||||||||
| 14506 | 2026.08.09 2026.08.10 |
7 | 13 | 7 | N12W46 | 0100 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S12280 area: 0150 location: N11W43 |
| 14507 | 2026.08.10 2026.08.11 |
20 | 41 | 24 | N04W29 | 0240 | EAI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S12283 area: 0520 location: N04W28 |
| 14508 | 2026.08.10 2026.08.11 |
2 | 11 | 5 | N07E03 | 0090 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S12284 area: 0150 location: N08E03 |
| 14510 | 2026.08.11 2026.08.13 |
1 | 9 | 6 | N13W59 | 0010 | AXX | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S12287 area: 0050 location: N12W53 |
| S12288 | 2026.08.11 | N27W43 | |||||||||
| S12289 | 2026.08.11 | N09W13 |
 |
||||||||
| 14511 | 2026.08.12 2026.08.13 |
4 | 2 | S09E26 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S12291 location: S10E30 |
||
| 14512 | 2026.08.13 2026.08.15 |
5 | 2 | S20W28 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S12292 location: S19W28 |
||
| S12293 | 2026.08.13 | S12E14 |
 |
||||||||
| S12294 | 2026.08.13 | S11E01 | |||||||||
| S12296 | 2026.08.14 | N14W01 | |||||||||
| S12298 | 2026.08.15 | 4 | 1 | S15E22 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| Total spot count: | 30 | 87 | 47 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 70 | 157 | 117 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 45 | 110 | 70 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 77 | 86 | 94 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.5 (-2.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.4 (-4.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 113.1 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.5 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.9 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 107.0 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 115.0 | 104.2 (-2.8) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 77.4 | (99.7 projected, -4.5) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 86.6 | (94.6 projected, -5.1) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (90.7 projected, -3.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (89.5 projected, -1.2) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (87.4 projected, -2.1) | 9.57 |
| 2026.07 | 134.7 | 139.0 | 78.1 | (82.8 projected, -4.6) | 10.3 |
| 2026.08 | 110.1 (1) | 42.9 (2A) / 83.1 (2B) / 99.9 (2C) | (80.6 projected, -2.2) | (8.0) | |
| 2026.09 | (79.7 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2026.10 | (77.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2026.11 | (74.8 projected, -2.9) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (71.6 projected, -3.2) | ||||
| 2027.01 | (69.3 projected, -2.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
