Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 13, 2016 at 04:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (January 1, 2016)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (January 1, 2016) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (January 1, 2016) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (January 1, 2016) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (January 1, 2016) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (December 27, 2015)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 498 and 706 km/s. ACE data indicate that a high speed stream associated with CH709 arrived near noon replacing another high speed stream.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 105.5 (decreasing 10.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 108.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.8). Three hour interval K indices: 32322233 (planetary), 32323332 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 138) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 74) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12480 [N02W11] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12482 [N02W65] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12483 [N17W09] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4997 [S10W57] was quiet and stable.
S5012 [N13W23] was quiet and stable.
S5019 [S20W06] decayed slowly and quietly.
S5023 [N15E32] was quiet and stable.
S5024 [S17W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S5026 [S08W29] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 9-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH709) rotated across the central meridian on January 9. Another northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH710) will rotate into a potentially geoeffective position on January 13.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 13 due to effects from CH709 and quiet on January 14-15. Effects from CH710 could cause some unsettled and active intervals on January 16-17.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
As of December 12, 2015, the active region maps are based on image products from semi-automated sunspot counting at 4K resolution.

0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12477 2016.01.01       N12W73          

 

S4997 2016.01.01   1   S10W57 0003   AXX  
12478 2016.01.02       N06W85            
S5005 2016.01.05       S15W17            
12480 2016.01.06 4 16 4 N03W08 0150 CSO CSO

area: 0230

12483 2016.01.07
2016.01.08
5 11 4 N17W09 0130 DAO DSO  
12482 2016.01.07
2016.01.08
  2 1 N02W66 0008   HRX  
S5012 2016.01.07   3   N13W23 0009   AXX  
S5016 2016.01.08       S02W48            
12484 2016.01.09
2016.01.10
      N07E19            
S5019 2016.01.09   2   S20W06 0006   AXX  
S5020 2016.01.09       S22W14            
S5022 2016.01.11       S12W40          
S5023 2016.01.11   9 2 N15E32 0020   BXO  
S5024 2016.01.11   1 1 S17W18 0003   AXX  
S5026 2016.01.12   3 2 S08W29 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 9 48 14  
Sunspot number: 29 138 74  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 19 61 27  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 32 76 63 k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2014.11 154.8 151.4 103.6 94.7 (-2.6) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 112.9 92.2 (-2.5) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 93.0 89.3 (-2.9) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 66.7 86.1 (-3.2) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 54.5 82.2 (-3.9) 16.14
2015.04 128.8 129.7 75.3 78.8 (-3.4) 10.73
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 76.0 (-2.8) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 72.0 (-4.0) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 66.4 (68.3 projected, -3.7) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.6 (66.3 projected, -2.0) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.1 (66.3 projected, +0.0) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 61.7 (65.9 projected, -0.4) 14.02
2015.11 109.3 106.9 63.2 (63.8 projected, -2.1) 12.09
2015.12 113.1 109.5 57.7 (62.1 projected, -1.7) 14.29
2016.01 (102.7)   20.4 (2A) / 52.8 (2B) / 58.8 (2C) (60.4 projected, -1.7) (9.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.