The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on February 8 under the influence of effects from CH713 for the first half of the day. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 331 and 452 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 115.2 (increasing 9.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 105.1. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.5). Three hour interval K indices: 54421111 (planetary), 43422111 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 263) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 173) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12491 [N01W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 12492 [N13W14] decayed slowly and quietly
losing umbra on all spots.
Region 12494 [S11W41] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12495 [S08W84] rotated partly out of view.
Region 12496 [N08E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 12497 [N12E37] developed further and was quiet.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5080 [N05W10] was quiet and stable.
S5082 [N13E16] was quiet and stable.
S5086 [S12E18] was quiet and stable.
S5091 [N13W21] developed significantly during the latter half of the day
as new flux emerged. Unfortunately SWPC has failed to make an obvious split
between this group
and AR 12492. The region produced the sole C class flare of the day.
New region S5093 [N19E70] rotated into view.
New region S5094 [N18E37] was observed with tiny spots.
New region S5095 [S10W18] was observed with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
February 6-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available LASCO imagery.
February 8: An extensive filament eruption centered near AR S5082 was
observed beginning near 20:20 UT. The eruptive parts extended from the central
meridian to near the northwest limb. A CME was observed after this event.
Although the major parts of the ejecta was headed well outside the Sun-Earth
line, there is a chance that a component may be Earth directed.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH714) rotated across the central meridian on February 8.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 9-10. There's a slight chance of CME effects on February 9. On February 11 effects from CH714 could cause unsettled and active intervals. On February 11 and 12 there is a slight chance of CME effects caused by the February 8 CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12491 |
2016.01.30 2016.01.31 |
2 | N01W40 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N01W35 | |||
| 12492 |
2016.02.01 2016.02.02 |
7 | 13 | 7 | N14W19 | 0020 | CRO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N13W14 |
| S5071 | 2016.02.02 | S09W56 | |||||||||
| 12494 |
2016.02.03 2016.02.04 |
8 | 18 | 12 | S12W43 | 040 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| S5076 | 2016.02.03 | N16W45 | |||||||||
| S5077 | 2016.02.03 | S10W56 |
 |
||||||||
| 12495 |
2016.02.03 2016.02.05 |
2 | 2 | 1 | S08W88 | 0180 | DAO | HAX |
 |
 |
|
| S5080 | 2016.02.03 | 4 | 1 | N05W10 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12496 |
2016.02.04 2016.02.05 |
5 | 23 | 11 | N08E19 | 0010 | BXO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 |
| S5082 | 2016.02.04 | 7 | 2 | N13E16 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12497 |
2016.02.05 2016.02.06 |
10 | 39 | 18 | N13E36 | 0200 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0270 |
| S5085 | 2016.02.05 | N14W37 | |||||||||
| S5086 | 2016.02.05 | 2 | 1 | S12E18 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S5087 | 2016.02.05 | S05W46 | |||||||||
| S5088 | 2016.02.05 | N23W39 | |||||||||
| S5090 | 2016.02.06 | S19W08 | |||||||||
| S5091 | 2016.02.06 | 16 | 8 | N13W21 | 0070 | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma | ||
| S5092 | 2016.02.07 | N18W05 |
 |
||||||||
| S5093 | 2016.02.08 | 1 | 1 | N19E70 | 0006 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S5094 | 2016.02.08 | 5 | 1 | N18E37 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S5095 | 2016.02.08 | 1 | S10W18 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 32 | 133 | 63 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 82 | 263 | 173 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 50 | 157 | 87 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 90 | 145 | 147 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.2 (-2.5) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | 78.8 (-3.4) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | 76.0 (-2.8) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | 72.0 (-4.0) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | 68.2 (-3.8) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | (66.1 projected, -2.1) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (66.1 projected, +0.0) | 15.78 |
| 2015.10 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 61.7 | (65.7 projected, -0.4) | 14.02 |
| 2015.11 | 109.3 | 106.9 | 63.2 | (63.6 projected, -2.1) | 12.09 |
| 2015.12 | 113.1 | 109.5 | 57.7 | (61.9 projected, -1.7) | 14.29 |
| 2016.01 | 103.4 | 100.2 | 56.6 | (60.2 projected, -1.7) | 10.0 |
| 2016.02 | 113.4 | 21.3 (2A) / 77.1 (2B) / 83.6 (2C) | (57.8 projected, -2.4) | (8.2) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
