The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 533 km/s. Solar wind speed increased slowly after noon as a low speed stream associated with CH700 arrived. At approximately 19:25 UT a minor increase was observed in solar wind speed and density as well as the total field of the interplanetary magnetic field. This was likely the arrival of the CME observed on November 15-16.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 107.6 (decreasing 12.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 105.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.9). Three hour interval K indices: 13122345 (planetary), 12233345 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 125) and 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 64) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12452 [S12W42] was quiet and stable.
Region 12454 [N05W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
SWPC for reasons unknown decided to renumber this region to AR 12456 and move AR
12454 northwards to what is AR S4902. For data integrity reasons the original
numbering is kept here.
Region 12455 [N16W15] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4899 [S19E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
S4902 [N12E01] developed slowly and was quiet.
New region S4905 [N12E87] rotated partly into view and was the
source of the only C flare of the day, a C1.1 event at 20:09 UT.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
November 17-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available LASCO imagery.
November 15-16: Extensive filament eruptions, mainly in the southwest
quadrant were observed late on November 15 and early on November 16. A CME was
observed at the southwest limb before midnight on November 15.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH700) was in an Earth facing position on November 14-16. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH701) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 21-22, CH701 may be too far to the north to become geoeffective.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active intervals on November 19 due to combined effects from CH700 and a CME. Quiet to unsettled is likely on November 20 becoming quiet on November 21-22.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12452 | 2015.11.10 2015.11.11 |
5 | S08W56 | 0010 | BXO | images/AR_12452_20151118_2345.png |
 |
location: S12W42 | |||
| S4884 | 2015.11.10 | S19W31 |
 |
||||||||
| 12453 | 2015.11.12 2015.11.13 |
N06W65 | |||||||||
| 12454 | 2015.11.12 2015.11.13 |
4 | 22 | 10 | N11E01 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N05W01 previous SWPC position:
N05E12 |
| S4893 | 2015.11.12 | N04W50 | |||||||||
| 12455 | 2015.11.13 2015.11.14 |
3 | 1 | N15W18 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N16W15 |
||
| S4895 | 2015.11.14 | N18W54 | |||||||||
| S4899 | 2015.11.15 | 5 | 1 | S19E08 | 0010 | BXO | images/AR_S4899_20151118_2345.png | images/AR_S4899_20151117_2345.png | |||
| S4900 | 2015.11.15 | N24W36 | |||||||||
| S4901 | 2015.11.15 | S25W28 | |||||||||
| S4902 | 2015.11.16 | 29 | 12 | N12E01 | 0050 | CRI | images/AR_S4902_20151118_2345.png |
 |
this is now AR 12454 to SWPC | ||
| S4904 | 2015.11.17 | N24W25 |
 |
||||||||
| 12456 | 2015.11.18 | 12 | N06W00 | 0050 | DAI | see AR 12454 and AR S4902 | |||||
| S4905 | 2015.11.18 | 1 | N12E87 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 16 | 65 | 24 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 36 | 125 | 64 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 21 | 71 | 30 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 40 | 69 | 54 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 130.0 | 101.9 (-6.4) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 90.0 | 97.3 (-4.6) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 103.6 | 94.7 (-2.6) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.2 (-2.5) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | 78.9 (-3.3) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | (76.3 projected, -2.6) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | (72.6 projected, -3.7) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | (68.9 projected, -3.7) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | (67.7 projected, -1.2) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (68.0 projected, +0.3) | 15.78 |
| 2015.10 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 61.7 | (67.1 projected, -0.9) | 14.02 |
| 2015.11 | (110.1) | 39.3 (2A) / 65.5 (2B) / 90.2 (2C) | (65.0 projected, -2.1) | (16.8) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
