Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 2, 2015 at 06:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (November 1, 2015)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (November 1, 2015) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (November 1, 2015) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (November 1, 2015) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (November 1, 2015) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (October 13, 2015)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 337 and 375 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 124.3 (increasing 41.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 104.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 13223121 (planetary), 12232221 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 243) and 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 173) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12439 [N19W52] reemerged with a single spot.
Region 12441 [N14W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12442 [N15W42] developed quickly as new flux emerged in the central and trailing sections. A magnetic delta has formed and M class flaring is possible. SWPC has the new spots as AR 12445.
Region 12443 [N06E29] gained many spots and developed a more significant magnetic delta in the central spot section. A major flare is possible.
Region 12446 [N15W04] emerged on October 31 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4860 [N21E40] was quiet and stable.
S4865 [S12W00] reemerged with a single spot.
New region S4869 [N15W01] emerged very close to AR 12446 as a separate bipolar region.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Recorded by Comment
C2.6 00:09   12443 SDO/EVE  
C6.5/1F 00:27 N06E45 12443 GOES15  
C6.2 01:15 N06E45 12443 GOES15  
C5.6 03:39 N06E44 12443 GOES15  
C2.4 06:28 N06E43 12443 GOES15  
C5.0 16:43 N06E39 12443 GOES15  
C6.3/1F (LDE) 18:03 N06E39 12443 GOES15  
C4.9 20:23 N08E30 12443 GOES15  
C6.4 (LDE) 23:14   12443 GOES15 C6.4 @ 23:08 @ SDO/EVE
C8.0 23:15   12442 SDO/EVE superimposed on LDE in AR 12443

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 30-November 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH697) was in an Earth facing position on October 30-November 1.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to severe storm on November 2 due to a co-rotating interaction region associated with CH697. Unsettled to major storm conditions are likely to continue on November 3-4 due to effects from CH697.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.

0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12439 2015.10.22   1 1 N16W59 0004   AXX   location: N19W52
12440 2015.10.25
2015.10.26
      N18W86          
12441 2015.10.27   4 2 N15W20 0008   AXX  
12442 2015.10.27
2015.10.28
1 43 23 N16W50 0010 HRX DAC

beta-gamma-delta

location: N15W42

area: 0310

12443 2015.10.28
2015.10.29
28 98 56 N07E29 0650 EKC FKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0980

12444 2015.10.28
2015.10.29
      S04E16          
S4857 2015.10.28       N10W49            
S4860 2015.10.29   2 2 N21E40 0010   BXO  
S4861 2015.10.30       N11E12            
S4862 2015.10.30       S07W09            
S4863 2015.10.30       S38W30            
S4865 2015.10.31   1 1 S12W00 0006   AXX    
12446 2015.10.31
2015.11.01
5 5 3 N15W04 0020 CRO CRO  
S4867 2015.10.31       N32E30          
S4868 2015.10.31       S01E14          
12445 2015.11.01 14     N15W42 0050 DAI       part of AR 12442
S4869 2015.11.01   9 5 N15W01 0020   CRO    
Total spot count: 48 163 93  
Sunspot number: 88 243 173  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 69 184 114  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 97 134 147 k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2014.09 146.6 148.1 130.0 101.9 (-6.4) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 90.0 97.3 (-4.6) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 103.6 94.7 (-2.6) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 112.9 92.2 (-2.5) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 93.0 89.3 (-2.9) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 66.7 86.1 (-3.2) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 54.5 82.2 (-3.9) 16.14
2015.04 128.8 129.7 75.3 78.9 (-3.3) 10.73
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 (76.3 projected, -2.6) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 (72.6 projected, -3.7) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 66.4 (68.9 projected, -3.7) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.6 (67.7 projected, -1.2) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.1 (68.0 projected, +0.3) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 61.7 (67.1 projected, -0.9) 13.8
2015.11 (124.3)   2.9 (2A) / 88 (2B) / 75.1 (2C) (65.0 projected, -2.1) (7.8)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.