Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 14, 2015 at 06:30 UT.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update March 1, 2015)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update March 1, 2015) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 1, 2015)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 1, 2015)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2015)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated February 21, 2015]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 428 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 119.4 (decreasing 1.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 136.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.4). Three hour interval K indices: 10123111 (planetary), 10014312 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 134) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 100) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12296 [S11W67] decayed quickly and will likely become spotless today.
Region 12297 [S17W10] decayed significantly losing penumbral area and spot. There are still 2 significant magnetic deltas and M class flaring is likely.
Region 12299 [S05E48] decayed and was mostly quiet.
New region 12300 [N15W49] emerged on March 10 and was numbered by SWPC 3 days later as the region began to decay.
New region 12301 [S15E15] emerged on March 11 with SWPC numbering the region 2 days later. Slow decay was observed on March 13.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4270 [S22W35] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S4278 [N13W01] was quiet and stable.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C2.0 01:07   12297  
M1.2 04:01   12297  
C6.0 05:53   12297 added from SDO/EVE
M1.8 06:07   12297  
C6.9 07:37 S16W01 12297  
C6.2 20:46   12297  
C2.0 22:19   12297  

SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 11
: A filament eruption in the northwest quadrant beginning at 07:37 UT was associated with a CME off the northwest limb. No LASCO imagery after the X2 event in AR 12297 is available as this is written. In SDO/AIA imagery the flare appears to have been "dry", ie. not associated with a significant CME. Interesting filament activity was observed near center disc at the end of the day.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

An extension (CH659) of the southern polar coronal hole will likely rotate over the central meridian on March 14-15. This, and a northern hemisphere coronal hole, could be associated with co-rotating interaction regions.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 14-15. On March 16-18 there's a chance of unsettled to minor storm conditions due to effects from co-rotating interaction regions and CH659.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12296 2015.03.02
2015.03.06
  1   S12W73 0001   AXX location: S11W67

SWPC has this as AR 12298

12297 2015.03.06 23 41 29 S17W13 0420 DKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0500

location: S17W10

S4270 2015.03.06   3 1 S22W35 0007   BXO    
S4272 2015.03.08       S15W43            
S4273 2015.03.09       N11E09            
S4274 2015.03.09       S04W58            
12300 2015.03.10
2015.03.13
3 2 2 N13W51 0010 BXO BXO location: N15W49
S4277 2015.03.10       S12W27            
12298 2015.03.11 3     S11W66 0010 AXX       originally AR 12296
S4278 2015.03.11   4 1 N13W01 0007   AXX images/AR_S4278_20150313_2345.png images/AR_S4278_20150312_2345.png  
12299 2015.03.11
2015.03.12
4 6 3 S07E47 0010 BXO CRO

location: S05E48

12301 2015.03.11
2015.03.13
4 7 4 S16E13 0020 CRO CRO  
Total spot count: 37 64 40  
Sunspot number: 87 134 100  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 50 80 56  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 52 47 55 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 80.5 (-1.4) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 79.7 (-0.8) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 78.6 (-1.1) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 75.6 (-3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.6 projected, -4.0) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.2 projected, -2.4) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 70.1 (67.4 projected, -1.8) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 78.0 (66.3 projected, -1.1) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 67.0 (65.1 projected, -1.2) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 44.8 (63.6 projected, -1.5) 9.92
2015.03 (126.5)   18.7 (2A) / 44.5 (2B) / 55.1 (2C) (61.6 projected, -2.0) (11.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.