Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 10, 2015 at 04:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (December 3, 2015)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (December 1, 2015) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (December 1, 2015) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (December 1, 2015) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (December 1, 2015) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (November 16, 2015)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on December 9 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH704. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 419 and 462 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 108.8 (increasing 5.3 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 105.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22111232 (planetary), 23012232 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 161) and 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 116) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12462 [N08W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12463 [S09W06] was quiet and stable.
Region 12464 [S11E16] was quiet and stable.
Region 12465 [S05E38] developed in the trailing spot section.
Region 12466 [S13E06] gained a small magnetic delta early in the day, the delta disappeared by the end of the day.
New region 12467 [S06E15] emerged on December 8 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S4951 [S14E79] rotated into view just before noon. Opposite polarity spots appear to be poorly separated and the region may be capable of C class flaring.
New region S4952 [S17E57] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A large recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH704) with a very long trans equatorial extension was in an Earth facing position on December 2-8. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH705) will likely rotate across the central meridian on December 11-12.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 10-11 due to effects from CH704, occasional minor storm intervals are possible. Quiet to unsettled is likely on December 12-13 becoming quiet to active on December 14-15 due to effects from CH705.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.

0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12462 2015.12.02
2015.12.03
2 7 4 N10W10 0000 AXX BXO area: 0015

location: N08W08

12463 2015.12.03 4 15 8 S09W07 0030 HSX CAI

 

12466 2015.12.04
2015.12.08
12 23 15 S13E05 0050 DAI DRI beta-gamma

area: 0090

12464 2015.12.04
2015.12.05
  6 4 S12E13 0015   BXO

location: S11E16

S4941 2015.12.04       N08W35          
S4942 2015.12.05       N15W15            
12465 2015.12.06
2015.12.07
6 13 6 S06E35 0080 CSO DAO

area: 0200

location: S05E38

S4945 2015.12.06       N10E16            
S4947 2015.12.06       S06W49            
12467 2015.12.08
2015.12.09
3 11 6 S06E16 0020 CRO CRI area: 0040
S4950 2015.12.08       N23W42          
S4951 2015.12.09   5 3 S14E79 0130   CAO    
S4952 2015.12.09   1   S17E57 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 27 81 46  
Sunspot number: 77 161 116  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 45 102 67  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 85 89 99 k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2014.10 153.4 152.9 90.0 97.3 (-4.6) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 103.6 94.7 (-2.6) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 112.9 92.2 (-2.5) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 93.0 89.3 (-2.9) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 66.7 86.1 (-3.2) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 54.5 82.2 (-3.9) 16.14
2015.04 128.8 129.7 75.3 78.9 (-3.3) 10.73
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 76.0 (-2.9) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 (72.1 projected, -3.9) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 66.4 (68.4 projected, -3.7) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.6 (67.2 projected, -1.2) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.1 (67.4 projected, +0.2) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 61.7 (66.5 projected, -0.9) 14.02
2015.11 109.3 106.9 63.2 (64.5 projected, -2.0) 12.09
2015.12 (100.0)   12.5 (2A) / 43.2 (2B) / 72.5 (2C) (62.7 projected, -1.8) (10.4)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.