The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on August 28. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 313 and 433 km/s. A moderately high speed stream associated with CH685 became the dominant solar wind source after 16h UT in a clear transition from the disturbance which began on August 26. No co-rotating interaction region effects were observed.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 109.1 (increasing 6.2 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 115.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 39 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 38.9). Three hour interval K indices: 54335564 (planetary), 44335554 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 142) and 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 100) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12403 [S15W70] decayed further losing spots
and penumbral area. The magnetic delta in the leading spot section is still
present and further M class flaring is possible while the region rotates over
the southwest limb.
Region 12405 [S22E36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4703 [N14W09] was quiet and stable.
S4714 [S05E03] was quiet and stable.
S4715 [N12E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S4717 [N02E50] emerged with a few spots.
New region S4720 [S17E38] emerged with a few spots to the north of AR
12405.
New region S4721 [S20E20] emerged with a penumbra spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C8.0 | 02:51 | S13W59 | 12403 | GOES15 | |
| C4.5 | 06:28 | 12403 | GOES15 | ||
| C3.7 | 08:19 | S14W63 | 12403 | GOES15 | |
| C5.3 | 11:44 | 12403 | GOES15 | ||
| C2.6 | 12:55 | 12403 | GOES15 | ||
| M2.2/1F | 13:16 | S14W65 | 12403 | GOES15 | |
| C2.0 | 17:38 | 12403 | GOES15 | ||
| M2.1/1N | 19:03 | S13W70 | 12403 | GOES15 | |
| C4.6 | 19:39 | S13W70 | 12403 | GOES15 | |
| C2.1 | 20:29 | 12403 | GOES15 | ||
| C4.8 | 23:47 | S14W75 | 12403 | GOES15 |
August 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH685) was in an Earth facing position on August 25-26. Another recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH686) will rotate across the central meridian on August 29-30.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on August 29 becoming quiet to unsettled on August 30-31 due to effects from CH685. Quiet conditions are likely on September 1 while a disturbance associated with CH686 could cause quiet to active conditions on September 2-3.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12403 | 2015.08.17 2015.08.18 |
27 | 26 | 15 | S15W69 | 0840 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0650 location: S14W70 |
| 12404 | 2015.08.19 2015.08.20 |
N14W88 | |||||||||
| S4703 | 2015.08.22 | 12 | 6 | N14W09 | 0025 | BXO | images/AR_S4703_20150828_2345.png | images/AR_S4703_20150827_2345.png | |||
| S4704 | 2015.08.22 | S23W56 | |||||||||
| S4706 | 2015.08.23 | S15W35 | |||||||||
| S4711 | 2015.08.25 | S02W54 | |||||||||
| S4712 | 2015.08.25 | S13W46 | |||||||||
| 12405 | 2015.08.26 2015.08.27 |
3 | 10 | 3 | S23E35 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0025 |
| S4714 | 2015.08.27 | 1 | 1 | S03E05 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S4715 | 2015.08.27 | 2 | 2 | N12E17 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S4717 | 2015.08.28 | 4 | 1 | N02E50 | 0014 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S4720 | 2015.08.28 | 6 | 2 | S17E38 | 0024 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S4721 | 2015.08.28 | 1 | S20E20 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 30 | 62 | 30 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 50 | 142 | 100 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 40 | 78 | 46 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 55 | 78 | 85 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 128.7 | 114.3 (+3.8) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 112.5 | 115.0 (-1.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 102.9 | 114.1 (-0.9) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 100.2 | 112.6 (-1.5) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 106.9 | 108.3 (-4.3) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 130.0 | 101.9 (-6.4) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 90.0 | 97.4 (-4.5) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 103.6 | 95.0 (-2.4) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.6 (-2.4) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.8 (-2.8) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | (86.8 projected, -3.0) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | (83.1 projected, -3.7) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 78.0 | (79.8 projected, -3.3) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 90.0 | (77.4 projected, -2.4) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 68.3 | (73.9 projected, -3.5) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | (70.2 projected, -3.7) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | (106.6) | 56.6 (2A) / 62.6 (2B) / 76.5 (2C) | (69.0 projected, -1.2) | (14.6) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
