Last major update issued on October 2, 2014 at 05:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle
24 progress (last update October 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update October 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update October 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
September 6, 2014)]
[New: Noon SDO count 1K 4K (large file)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
September 6, 2014]
[Presentations:
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)
/
4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 438 km/s, weakly under the influence of a low speed stream from CH637.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 155 (increasing 9.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 138.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.5). Three hour interval K indices: 32222212 (planetary), 33333321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 265) and 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 215) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12172 [S11W72] decayed slowly. There's a
minor chance of an
M class flare.
Region 12173 [S15W75] developed in the trailing spot section while the
leading spots disappeared. C and minor M class flaring is possible.
Region 12175 [N17W84] decayed further and may still be capable of M class
flaring as the region rotates over the northwest limb.
Region 12176 [N08W38] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12177 [N12E02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12178 [S02E19] decayed in the trailing spot section. C and minor M
class flares are possible.
Region 12179 [S10E31] was quiet and stable.
Region 12181 [S10E10] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3848 [S16W13] was quiet and stable.
S3858 [N05E32] was quiet and stable.
S3861 [N12E09] was quiet and stable.
S3866 [S04E32] was quiet and stable.
New region S3869 [S13E54] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3870 [N13E82] rotated into view.
New region S3871 [S32E15] emerged with a penumbra spot.
C2+ flares (GOES):
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Comment |
| C6.7 (LDE) | 03:06 | S12W64 | 12172 |
September 29 - October 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH637) was in an Earth facing position on September 28.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 2-4.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12173 | 2014.09.19 2014.09.20 |
12 | 9 | 5 | S14W79 | 0100 | DAI | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S15W75 |
| 12172 | 2014.09.20 | 13 | 13 | 5 | S09W69 | 0200 | FAO | FKO |
 |
 |
location: S11W72 area: 0500 |
| 12175 | 2014.09.21 2014.09.25 |
3 | 3 | 2 | N18W90 | 0140 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N17W84 |
| 12176 | 2014.09.22 2014.09.25 |
7 | 10 | 4 | N09W39 | 0020 | CRO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 |
| 12177 | 2014.09.25 | 19 | 21 | 14 | N12E03 | 0070 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
|
| S3848 | 2014.09.25 | 2 | 2 | S16W13 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3850 | 2014.09.26 | S16W40 | plage | ||||||||
| 12178 | 2014.09.27 | 12 | 22 | 13 | S02E19 | 0180 | DAC | DSC |
 |
 |
area: 0320 |
| 12179 | 2014.09.27 2014.09.28 |
1 | 9 | 3 | S11E29 | 0040 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: S10E31 |
| S3858 | 2014.09.27 | 3 | 2 | N05E32 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3859 | 2014.09.27 | N11W13 | plage | ||||||||
| S3860 | 2014.09.27 | S00W57 | plage | ||||||||
| S3861 | 2014.09.27 | 5 | 4 | N12E09 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12181 | 2014.09.28 2014.09.30 |
5 | 7 | 4 | S12E10 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S10E10 |
| S3863 | 2014.09.28 | S18W31 | plage | ||||||||
| S3864 | 2014.09.29 | S07W21 | plage | ||||||||
| S3866 | 2014.09.29 | 6 | 3 | S04E32 | 0012 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 12180 | 2014.09.29 2014.09.30 |
2 | N13W27 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
spotless | ||||
| S3868 | 2014.09.30 | S24E03 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3869 | 2014.10.01 | 4 | 2 | S13E54 | 0016 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S3870 | 2014.10.01 | 1 | 1 | N13E82 | 0006 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S3871 | 2014.10.01 | 1 | 1 | S32E15 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 74 | 115 | 65 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 164 | 265 | 215 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 107 | 164 | 114 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 98 | 93 | 118 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | 73.1 (+4.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | 75.0 (+1.9) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | 75.4 (+0.4) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | 76.0 (+0.6) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | 80.8 (+2.4) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | (82.7 projected, +1.9) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | (82.3 projected, -0.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | (81.1 projected, -1.2) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | (79.4 projected, -1.7) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | (77.1 projected, -2.3) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.2 | 87.6 | (73.8 projected, -3.3) | 9.6 | |
| 2014.10 | 155 (1) | 5.3 (2A) / 164 (2B) / 96.4 (2C) | (71.4 projected, -2.4) | (8.5) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
