Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 13, 2014 at 05:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 11, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 458 and 647 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 152.9 (increasing 14.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 143.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 32211112 (planetary), 32221222 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 278) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 194) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12205 [N12W36] decayed further and lost the magnetic delta. The chance of an M class flare is decreasing.
Region 12207 [S11E17] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12208 [S12E30] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. An M class flare is possible.
New region 12209 [S12E80] rotated partly into view and might be capable of M class flaring.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3963 [S23W32] was quiet and stable.
S3971 [S10W02] was quiet and stable.
S3973 [N18W03] was quiet and stable.
S3977 [S14W12] was quiet and stable.
S3981 [N05E47] was quiet and stable.
S3982 [N08W25] reemerged with several spots.
New region S3985 [S07E63] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S3986 [N18E46] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3987 [N29W02] emerged with a penumbra spot.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C4.8 03:18   12205  
C5.1 10:46   12205  
C3.7 20:43      

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH642) could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 13-14. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH643) will likely rotate into a geoeffective position on November 16-18.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 13-15.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12205 2014.11.03 23 35 16 N15W35 0150 DAC DAC beta-gamma

location: N12W36

S3960 2014.11.03       S07W58           plage
12206 2014.11.04       S15W59            
S3963 2014.11.04   4 1 S23W32 0007   AXX  
S3964 2014.11.04       S16W42         plage
S3970 2014.11.07       S05W11           plage
S3971 2014.11.07   8 4 S10W02 0015   BXO  
12207 2014.11.07
2014.11.08
5 19 13 S08E16 0030 HAX CRI location: S11E17
S3973 2014.11.07   3 2 N18W03 0010   BXO  
12208 2014.11.08
2014.11.09
20 57 37 S11E29 0160 ESC DAC beta-gamma

area: 0250

S3977 2014.11.08   5 1 S14W12 0010   AXX  
S3978 2014.11.08       N19W04           plage
S3980 2014.11.09       N09W01           plage
S3981 2014.11.10   1 1 N05E47 0012   HRX  
S3982 2014.11.10   9 5 N08W25 0030   DRO    
S3983 2014.11.11       S17E09         plage
12209 2014.11.12 1 2 2 S13E73 0030 HSX EHO   location: S12E80

area: 0400

returning AR 12192

S3985 2014.11.12   1   S07E63 0002   AXX    
S3986 2014.11.12   3 2 N18E46 0008   BXO    
S3987 2014.11.12   1   N29W02 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 49 148 84  
Sunspot number: 89 278 194  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 69 177 113  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 53 97 107 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (80.3 projected, -1.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (78.7 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.1 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (74.7 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.5 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.0 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 133.0 (1)   35.8 (2A) / 89.4 (2B) / 87.0 (2C) (67.3 projected, -1.7) (8.7)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.