Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 12, 2014 at 06:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 11, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 495 and 566 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 142.3 (increasing 16.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 142.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22121114 (planetary), 32112324 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 215) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 119) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12205 [N13W22] decayed with the central magnetic delta becoming much smaller. There's still a chance of M class flares.
Region 12207 [S09E28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12208 [S11E43] developed with new positive flux emerging near the trailing negative polarity spots. An M class flare is possible.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
 S3963 [S24W18] was quiet and stable.
S3964 [S16W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3971 [S10E11] was quiet and stable.
 S3973 [N19E09] was quiet and stable.
S3977 [S15E01] was quiet and stable.
S3981 [N06E60] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S3983 [S17E22] was observed with penumbra spots.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C3.1 06:37 N17W12 12205  
C2.3 08:03 N15W10 12205  
C6.7 11:22   12205 triggered filament eruption near S3973
C6.3 17:20 N18W14 12205  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 9-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
 [Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH642) could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 13-14.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 12 and quiet to unsettled on November 13-14.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected		 Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay		 Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)		 SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12204 2014.10.31
2014.11.01		       N06W89           plage
12205 2014.11.03 28 43 25 N15W22 0230 DAC DSC beta-gamma-delta

location: N13W22
S3960 2014.11.03       S07W45           plage
S3961 2014.11.03       S07W59           plage
12206 2014.11.04       S15W45          
S3963 2014.11.04   5   S24W18 0010   AXX  
S3964 2014.11.04   2   S16W29 0001   AXX  
S3965 2014.11.04       N11W55           plage
S3970 2014.11.07       S05E02           plage
S3971 2014.11.07   5 2 S10E11 0010   BXO  
12207 2014.11.07
2014.11.08		 1 5 3 S09E26 0030 HSX HAX  
S3973 2014.11.07   2   N19E09 0003   AXX  
S3974 2014.11.07       N18W50           plage
12208 2014.11.08
2014.11.09		 11 47 26 S12E43 0070 DSO EAC beta-gamma

area: 0350
S3977 2014.11.08   3 2 S15E01 0010   AXX  
S3978 2014.11.08       N19E09           plage
S3980 2014.11.09       N09E12           plage
S3981 2014.11.10   2 1 N06E60 0012   HRX  
S3982 2014.11.10       N07W12         plage
S3983 2014.11.11   2   S17E22 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 40 115 59  
Sunspot number: 70 215 119  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 55 133 77  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 42 75 65 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)		 Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)		 166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)		 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (80.3 projected, -1.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (78.7 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.1 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (74.7 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.5 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.0 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 131.2 (1)   32.8 (2A) / 89.5 (2B) / 85.0 (2C) (67.3 projected, -1.7) (8.9)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.